Casa Pia

vs

Santa Clara

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Casa PiaHome

P: 7Pts: 4GD: -13

Form

W2-1@ Estoril

L1-4v Porto

D0-0@ Vitória

L0-1v Moreirense

L0-2@ Gil Vicente

Model strength

Attack18th

Defence15th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 6.7xGF: 6.4xGA: 12.0Luck: -2.7

Santa ClaraAway

P: 7Pts: 15GD: +7

Form

D0-0v Sp. Braga

W2-1@ Arouca

W4-0v Rio Ave

W1-0v Famalicão

D1-1@ Alverca

Model strength

Attack12th

Defence5th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 13.0xGF: 9.6xGA: 4.9Luck: +2.0

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Casa Pia

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• CassianoForward0.20
• Henrique AraújoForward0.12

Santa Clara

Unavailable· 12% of squad value

• MTCentre-BackCruciate ligament tear3.5 M€

Key players (SAR)

• Gonçalo PaciênciaForward0.29
• Vinícius LopesForward0.18

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)