Sp. Braga

vs

Sporting

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Sp. BragaHome

P: 6Pts: 11GD: +2

Form

D0-0@ Santa Clara

W1-0v Estoril

W2-1@ Alverca

L1-2@ Estrela

W1-0v Vitória

Model strength

Attack4th

Defence4th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 10.3xGF: 7.2xGA: 4.0Luck: +0.7

SportingAway

P: 7Pts: 15GD: +9

Form

D1-1@ Famalicão

W2-0v Nacional

W3-1v Alverca

W4-0@ Rio Ave

W3-2v Vitória

Model strength

Attack1st

Defence2nd

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 14.8xGF: 14.3xGA: 5.6Luck: +0.2

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Sp. Braga

Unavailable· 12% of squad value

• Bright Arrey-MbiCentre-Backunknown injury9 M€
• Sikou NiakatéCentre-BackAchilles tendon rupture6 M€
• Adrian BarisicCentre-BackAdductor injury4 M€

Key players (SAR)

• Pau VíctorForward0.22
• Fran NavarroForward0.19
• Ricardo HortaMidfielder0.13
• Gabriel SilvaForward0.10

Sporting

Unavailable· 4% of squad value

• João SimõesCentral MidfieldMetatarsal fracture15 M€
• Salvador BlopaRight-BackMuscle injury2.5 M€

Key players (SAR)

• Pedro GonçalvesForward0.35
• Fotis IoannidisForward0.24
• Daniel BragançaMidfielder0.15
• Rodrigo ZalazarMidfielder0.14

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)