Benfica vs Vitória
BenficaMatchday 8
Benfica
73%
Home win
Draw
17%
Draw
Vitória
10%
Away win
73%
17%
10%
Most likely outcome: Benfica (73%)
What is at stake
Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.
Win Benfica
Benfica
| Title | 25% | +2.8 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 97% | +0.9 pp |
Vitória
| Relegation | 3% | +0.4 pp |
Draw
Benfica
| Title | 16% | −6.0 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 94% | −1.5 pp |
Vitória
| Relegation | 2% | −0.6 pp |
Win Vitória
Benfica
| Title | 13% | −9.7 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 92% | −3.7 pp |
Vitória
| Relegation | 1% | −1.7 pp |
Change against the current probability, in percentage points.
How they arrive
Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.
BenficaHomeP: 7Pts: 16GD: +15
Form
L1-3@ Porto
W3-1v Gil Vicente
W4-0@ Moreirense
W2-1v Estoril
D2-2v Ac. Viseu
Model strength
Attack2nd
Defence3rd
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 16.2xGF: 16.3xGA: 4.6Luck: -0.2
VitóriaAwayP: 7Pts: 5GD: -3
Form
D1-1v Moreirense
L1-2@ Ac. Viseu
D0-0v Casa Pia
L0-1@ Sp. Braga
W1-0v Nacional
Model strength
Attack6th
Defence7th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 13.4xGF: 12.1xGA: 5.5Luck: -8.4
Squads
Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.
BenficaUnavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
- Vangelis PavlidisForward0.43
- BrumaForward0.22
- Andreas SchjelderupForward0.22
- Rafa SilvaMidfielder0.20
VitóriaUnavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
- Gustavo SilvaForward0.27
- Oumar CamaraForward0.14
- Alioune NdoyeForward0.09
SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-25