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Liga Portugal

Matchday 8 · played

Arouca – Estrela

The result and what the model gave before the match. The season forecast is on the Liga page.

Arouca
Final score: 1 to 0
Estrela
Sunday 11 October at 20:30

Before the match, the model gave these probabilities (published 25 September 2026):

Arouca win
47%
Happened
Draw
27%
Estrela win
26%
away

Arouca won. Before the match, the model gave this outcome 47%.

What Arouca has leftWhat Estrela has left

Next fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicão – AlvercaFamalicão 45% · draw 28% · Alverca 27%
  2. Mon 19 Oct · 20:15 · postponed, matchday 2Sp. Braga – Gil VicenteSp. Braga 61% · draw 23% · Gil Vicente 16%
  3. Fri 23 Oct · 20:45Vitória – MarítimoVitória 57% · draw 25% · Marítimo 18%
  4. Sat 24 Oct · 15:30Estrela – Casa PiaEstrela 42% · draw 29% · Casa Pia 29%
  5. Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Alverca – AroucaAlverca 43% · draw 27% · Arouca 30%
  6. Sat 24 Oct · 20:30Gil Vicente – PortoGil Vicente 13% · draw 22% · Porto 65%
  7. Sun 25 Oct · 15:30Estoril – MoreirenseEstoril 50% · draw 26% · Moreirense 24%
  8. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Rio Ave – FamalicãoRio Ave 31% · draw 27% · Famalicão 42%
  9. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Nacional – Sp. BragaNacional 16% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 62%
  10. Sun 25 Oct · 20:30Sporting – Ac. ViseuSporting 88% · draw 8.6% · Ac. Viseu 3.3%
  11. Mon 26 Oct · 18:45Santa Clara – BenficaSanta Clara 14% · draw 22% · Benfica 65%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · Next fixtures: forecast of 11 October 2026