Arouca

vs

Estrela

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

AroucaHome

P: 7Pts: 11GD: +3

Form

L1-2v Santa Clara

D0-0@ Estoril

L0-2@ Porto

W2-1v Marítimo

W1-0@ Vitória

Model strength

Attack9th

Defence12th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 9.5xGF: 8.9xGA: 9.8Luck: +1.5

EstrelaAway

P: 7Pts: 10GD: 0

Form

L0-2v Ac. Viseu

D3-3@ Rio Ave

W2-1v Sp. Braga

W3-2@ Nacional

D2-2v Famalicão

Model strength

Attack14th

Defence13th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 8.1xGF: 8.6xGA: 11.5Luck: +1.9

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Arouca

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• Ivan BarberoForward0.26
• Dylan NandínForward0.14
• Miguel PucheForward0.09

Estrela

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• Leandro AntonettiForward0.17
• Ianis StoicaForward0.16

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)