Skip to content
Liga Portugal

Ac. Viseu
vs
Estoril

Matchday 8
Ac. Viseu
30%
Home win
Draw
27%
Draw
Estoril
43%
Away win
30%
27%
43%
Most likely outcome: Estoril (43%)

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Win Ac. Viseu
Ac. Viseu
Relegation6%−5.3 pp
Estoril
Relegation20%+5.6 pp
Draw
Ac. Viseu
Relegation11%−0.4 pp
Estoril
Relegation16%+1.8 pp
Win Estoril
Ac. Viseu
Relegation15%+3.9 pp
Estoril
Relegation9%−5.0 pp

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Ac. ViseuHome
P: 7Pts: 11GD: 0
Form
W2-0@ Estrela
W2-1v Vitória
W1-0@ Gil Vicente
L0-3v Porto
D2-2@ Benfica
Model strength
Attack16th
Defence17th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 7.8xGF: 9.0xGA: 12.0Luck: +3.2
EstorilAway
P: 7Pts: 2GD: -7
Form
L1-2v Casa Pia
L0-1@ Sp. Braga
D0-0v Arouca
L1-2@ Benfica
L0-2v Rio Ave
Model strength
Attack5th
Defence10th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 6.2xGF: 6.0xGA: 11.4Luck: -4.2
Team page: Ac. ViseuTeam page: Estoril

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Ac. Viseu
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
No players with enough minutes.
Estoril
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
  • Yanis BegraouiForward0.27
  • André LacximicantForward0.11
  • João CarvalhoForward0.10

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)

Other fixtures

Benfica — Vitória
73% · 17% · 10%
Rio Ave — Nacional
44% · 26% · 30%
Moreirense — Gil Vicente
32% · 30% · 38%
Marítimo — Porto
7% · 16% · 77%
Famalicão — Alverca
46% · 28% · 27%
Sp. Braga — Sporting
24% · 24% · 52%
Arouca — Estrela
47% · 27% · 26%
Casa Pia — Santa Clara
28% · 30% · 41%
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-25