Gil Vicente·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
What the number means: if Héctor Hernández plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.26 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.14 and 0.39. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Attacking contribution
Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27
#12 of 40 published
The same structure as the finishing metric, but adding goals and assists together. It sees what the goals-only metric could not: who creates.
Few minutes pull the estimate toward replacement level and widen the interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's three Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 2,608 | 14 | +0.26 |
| 2025-26 | 351 | 2 | +0.26 |
| 2026-27 | 465 | 3 | +0.26 |
There is no telling whether he improved
Not enough minutes to compare seasons: in 2025-26 he played 351 minutes (the minimum to compare is 450), so that season's estimate is almost all the model's starting point.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
- 2026-27 season
- 9 Oct9 Oct 2026Moreirenseaway72' · startedno goals6.2
- 19 Sep19 Sep 2026Marítimohome71' · startedno goals6.3
- 13 Sep13 Sep 2026Benficaaway56' · started16.9
- 6 Sep6 Sep 2026Ac. Viseuhome90' · startedno goals5.7
- 30 Aug30 Aug 2026Famalicãoaway88' · startedno goals6.1
- 24 Aug24 Aug 2026Casa Piahome74' · started17.4
- 9 Aug9 Aug 2026Rio Avehome14' · sub17.0
- 2025-26 season
- 16 May16 May 2026Sportingaway17' · subno goals6.4
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 30,858 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 10 October 2026, with the 2026-27 season in progress: minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there until those models are refitted; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.