The Portuguese economy is steady (health score 51/100). Activity is running at about +1.8% year-on-year on the BdP coincident indicator, with the weekly pulse pointing down since that print. Our indicative mid-quarter estimate for Q2 2026 GDP is +0.3% quarter-on-quarter (80% band -0.1% to +1.1%), implying about +1.9% year-on-year. For 2026 as a whole, the median projection is +1.8% annual growth (P(>2%) ≈ 35%); the 5 official forecasts sit between the 46th and 65th percentiles of our distribution. Recession risk is low (P≈9%); in an adverse quarter (5% worst case) GDP growth could come in around -0.7%. The labour market looks stable, with the unemployment rate at 5.7%. Indicative read-out, not an official forecast — see each tile's caveats.
Generated by: fixed-rule template over the published tiles (no model, no new claim)
About this dashboard
A fast, consolidated read on where the Portuguese economy is now, built from official high-frequency data — a read of the present, not a forecast.
Economic health
A fixed-rule blend of the activity, recession-risk and downside signals below.
- Activity
- 5465%
- Downside risk
- 4635%
- Recession cap
- 100
65% activity + 35% downside, capped by recession risk.
Activity pulse
Where activity is running now — anchored on the latest BdP Coincident Activity print.
BdP Coincident Activity (BPstat 12099329) · corr 0.81 with YoY GDP (ex-COVID)
corr 0.81 ex-COVID with YoY GDP (pseudo-real-time, 40 normal quarters 2014-2025; the monthly BdP 'Coincident Activity' print carries the level information, not the weekly pulse)
direction-only, adds no verified level information (partial corr +0.01); its value is timeliness between monthly BdP prints
Weekly index (demoted component)
cadence context only — not a level estimate2026 annual outlook
Carryover from quarters published through 2026Q1, plus the 2026Q2 nowcast and an AR(1) extrapolation — assumes no new shock. Carryover floor: +1.2%.
Official forecasts on our distribution
- European Commission+1.7%May 21, 2026· P46
- Banco de Portugal+1.8%March 25, 2026· P52
- OECD+1.8%June 3, 2026· P52
- IMF+1.9%April 14, 2026· P59
- Governo (Ministério das Finanças)+2.0%April 30, 2026· P65
Hand-curated, sourced institutional forecasts (data/consensus_forecasts.csv; latest publication per institution). The percentile places each point forecast on OUR simulated distribution — proximity is context, not validation.
In-quarter seed: official_quarterly tile (point + calibrated band se) (quarterly_nowcast)
What's moving it
Biggest movers: Activity Indicators dragging down, Surveys pushing up.
pp of q/q GDP
Labour market
A read-out of published labour data — no forecast: next-month unemployment is at its noise floor.
Recession risk
Current risk
this quarter · 2026Q2
Where recession risk stands now — a calibrated read available before the GDP print.
Model probability by quarter
Track record
2-quarter outlook
outlooklooking ahead · 2026Q4
Looking two quarters ahead — anticipates gradual downturns, not sudden shocks.
Sahm labour-market check
Not triggeredunemployment gap 0.13pp vs 0.73pp threshold
Downside risk
Range of next-quarter GDP growth outcomes
The range of plausible outcomes for next quarter — read the downside, not the midpoint.
Official q/q GDP nowcast
The hardest series to nowcast — only firm at quarter-end (M3).
Combination weights
- AR(1)20%· +0.4%
- Supply-side bridge29%· +0.4%
- Factor DFM29%· +0.3%
- ESI momentum23%· +0.2%
Inverse-MSE weights with a hard AR(1) floor (shrink_combo); the small numbers are each member's own q/q call.
Vintage M2 · 33% of the quarter's data in
INE first prints have revised UP by +0.15pp on average (sd 0.34pp, n=36 ex-COVID genuine first releases) relative to today's revised series; our backtest edge survives first-release scoring (M3 rel-RMSE 0.81 vs the production AR(1) — see output/track_record.json).
Track record
Until 2026-06-04 these are backtested as-if calls on a leak-free publication-lag harness, scored against the GDP number as FIRST published — from then on every dot is a call we actually published.
Backtest era — as-if calls, scored against FIRST-published GDP
backtest (as-if calls, leak-free publication-lag harness)
| Horizon | n (ex-COVID) | rel. RMSE vs AR(1) · first release | vs revised | 80% band hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | 36 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 75% |
| M2 | 36 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 72% |
| M3 | 36 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 69% |
Below 1.00 = smaller errors than the AR(1) benchmark on the same information set; ex-COVID quarters only. Band hit-rates are indicative (bands were calibrated against the revised target).
- M1/M2 rows are shrink_combo (the production in-quarter model); ar1 is the production AR(1) fitted on the SAME publication-lag information set.
- hit80 compares |our_call - first_release| to the per-horizon 80% split-conformal half-width from src/evaluation/quarterly_band_calibration.json; those bands were calibrated on overlapping quarters (against the revised target), so the hit-rate is indicative, not an out-of-sample coverage claim.
Live era
4 days of live history as of 2026-06-11
- June 4, 20262026Q2 · M1ensemble+0.40%no outturn yet
- June 4, 20262026Q2 · M2supply_side_bridge+0.40%[-0.88% … +1.68%]no outturn yet
- June 5, 20262026Q2 · M2supply_side_bridge+0.40%[-0.88% … +1.68%]no outturn yet
- June 10, 20262026Q2 · M2supply_side_bridge+0.40%[-0.88% … +1.68%]no outturn yet
- June 11, 20262026Q2 · M2supply_side_bridge+0.41%[-0.87% … +1.69%]no outturn yet
Sparse by construction — the live era only started on 2026-06-04. No live-covered quarter has an official outturn yet; live scoring begins when INE/Eurostat publish the first one.