O estimador.pt utiliza modelos estatísticos Bayesianos para prever eleições portuguesas. A nossa abordagem é fundamentalmente probabilística: em vez de prever um único resultado, estimamos distribuições de probabilidade.
Brand · identity guide
A median on an interval.
estimador.pt publishes estimates with their uncertainty in plain sight. The brand is exactly that: a credible interval drawn in one ink, the name in the interface face, and a pastel mosaic reserved for surfaces where nothing is being measured.
September 2026 · files at the end of the page
01
The mark
An interval: two square caps, a band, a punched counter slightly left of centre. One path, one colour. Whiskers stay at every size; below 24px they become shorter, with thicker caps.
48 px
32 px
24 px
20 px
16 px
estimador.pt
app icon
- Pine on light, paper on dark. Nothing else.
- Minimum 16px. Never remove the whiskers or recentre the counter.
- Never a coloured band: mint, mustard or coral in the mark turn it back into a switch or a flag.
- Never inside a chart: the league table already draws intervals in club colours.
02
The signature
The mark and the name in Manrope 800, with the .pt in grey. There is one signature: no serif version, no stacked version.
estimador.pt
estimador.pt
Hover: the interval opens by two units and closes again. It is the signature's only movement.
- Clear space around it: at least half the mark's height.
- In the header, a 22px mark; in footers, 20px; on social cards, 26 to 34px.
- It is never rearranged: the name never goes under the mark, never in a serif, never without the .pt.
- It never loops: opening and closing answers the pointer, not the clock.
03
Colour
The brand owns a tone, not a hue: pine on paper. The four pastels come in two strengths, one for data and one for surfaces, and party and club colours belong to them.
Surfaces
Papel
#f5f3ea · paper
O chão de todas as páginas.
Creme
#fcfbf5 · cream
Painéis, cartões, linhas de tabela.
Pergaminho
#ece9dc · parchment
Zonas afundadas e estados de hover.
Linha
#dadccf · line
Filetes e separadores.
Ink
Pinho
#234c40 · ink
Texto, botões, o símbolo.
Pinho escuro
#16362e · ink-dark
Hover de ligações e botões.
Cinza-verde
#5f7062 · stone-500
Texto secundário, 4,5:1 sobre papel.
Cinza claro
#7f9284 · stone-400
Etiquetas pequenas e o .pt da assinatura.
Floresta
#122f2c · forest
Superfícies escuras: o mundo do atlas, cartões sociais.
Pastels: data and surfaces
Menta
#72c8b4 · mint
#9dcec1 · mint-soft
Mostarda
#e5b958 · mustard
#e3c994 · mustard-soft
Coral
#e29a83 · coral
#dcafa1 · coral-soft
Pervinca
#a9b9ed · periwinkle
#bdc7e7 · periwinkle-soft
Left of each pair, the data version: chart categories and the atlas's people. Right, the surface version: mosaic, covers, backgrounds. Neither ever does the other's job.
Semantic
Positivo
#4e8056 · positive
Subidas, sinal positivo.
Negativo
#a3543a · negative
Descidas, sinal negativo, erros.
Aviso
#c49536 · gold
Dados desatualizados, provisórios. Nunca na marca.
Teal
#245c68 · teal
A cor da secção Economia.
- Separate by chroma: data is saturated, chrome stays under 15% saturation.
- A number is ink, unless its subject has a colour of its own: club, party, sign.
- No ochre or mustard as highlight: it is AD's family and the warning amber.
- No brand green inside football data: green belongs to Sporting when it sits in a table.
04
Type
One family for everything that is interface and title: Manrope. One reading face, Newsreader, only in the body of articles, the methodology and about pages.
Manrope
Portugal, à escala humana.
Classificação prevista
Classificação prevista com base em 50 000 simulações. Pontos médios e probabilidades de cada resultado.
Liga Portugal — época 2026-27
55%
Titles 800, subtitles 700, text 400 and 500, labels 700 in small caps, numbers 800 with tabular figures.
Newsreader
Only in paragraphs, lists and quotes of long pieces. Titles, captions, tables and figures stay in Manrope.
05
The mosaic
The site's playful register, with a small vocabulary that means something: a quarter-circle is a share, a circle a person, a grid of dots a population, a rounded block a place. Bands stay in the mark.
cover
corner
quarters
people
- Brand and explainer covers, hero backgrounds on pages without data, empty states, the 404, avatars.
- Always in the surface versions of the pastels, on paper or cream.
- Never beside a club or party number, never on a forecast panel.
- Never encoding information: the mosaic decorates, it does not explain.
06
Motion
One gesture, always in the same ink: the uncertainty moves. While something loads, the counter travels the band; on hover, the interval opens and closes. None of it happens over a published forecast.
Estimating…
Hover.
- Respects prefers-reduced-motion: without motion, the mark stays still and complete.
- No animated numbers, no bars "recalculating": a published forecast does not move.
07
Components
Three levels of expression: entrances, explainers and empty states are the most playful; dashboards and forecasts stay restrained; articles and methodology are editorial. The shared pieces are few and the same everywhere.
Actions
Pine for the main action, one per view; bordered cream for the secondary; periwinkle tint for soft entrances; underlined text on hover. 48px tall, 10px corners, an arrow only when the action leads somewhere. Keyboard focus is a double ring, paper inside and pine outside, the same on every element.
Fields and selectors
Label always visible above, 48px tall, visible border. Errors are said with text and an icon, never with colour alone.
- Cards with 16px corners, a thin border and no shadow. Dense tables and charts share one panel rather than nested cards.
- Spacing in multiples of 4: 8 and 12 inside controls, 16 and 24 inside components, 32, 48 and 64 between sections.
- One colour field per page at most, and one supporting accent. Panels and numbers always stay on cream.
- Motion of 140 to 200ms for feedback and 200 to 300ms for panels; opacity and colour, no rotations or jumps.
- No huge illustrated hero above every dashboard: the useful information appears at once.
- No colour posing as a conclusion: a pastel never says a number is good or bad.
08
Visualisations
The chart and number types the site uses, as system components: a data card with source, date and methodology, stat tiles, a line with an uncertainty band, ranked bars, the three-outcome bar, emphasised columns and the hundred-people grid. All with a legend, direct labels, a hover tip and a table underneath.
Year-on-year growth
+1,8%
+0,3 pp vs. previous quarterIllustrative exampleUnemployment
6,2%
−0,1 pp over 3 monthsIllustrative exampleInflation
2,1%
0,0 ppIllustrative exampleRecession risk
8%
Two quarters ahead · exampleChange over time
GDP in volume, index 2019 = 100, with an 80% band
View as table
| Date | GDP (index) | GDP (index) · band |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 100,0 | 99,4–100,6 |
| Aug 2025 | 100,4 | 99,8–101,0 |
| Sept 2025 | 100,9 | 100,3–101,5 |
| Oct 2025 | 101,1 | 100,4–101,8 |
| Nov 2025 | 101,6 | 100,9–102,3 |
| Dec 2025 | 102,0 | 101,3–102,7 |
| Jan 2026 | 102,3 | 101,6–103,0 |
| Feb 2026 | 102,8 | 102,1–103,5 |
| Mar 2026 | 103,1 | 102,3–103,9 |
| Apr 2026 | 103,4 | 102,6–104,2 |
| May 2026 | 103,9 | 103,1–104,7 |
| Jun 2026 | 104,2 | 103,4–105,0 |
| Jul 2026 | 104,6 (projected) | 103,5–105,7 |
| Aug 2026 | 105,1 (projected) | 104,0–106,2 |
Title probability
- Equipa A42%
- Equipa B28%
- Equipa C20%
- Equipa D10%
- Others<1%
View as table
| Name | Value |
|---|---|
| Equipa A | 42% |
| Equipa B | 28% |
| Equipa C | 20% |
| Equipa D | 10% |
| Others | <1% |
Colours belong to the teams; a ranking without owned colours uses one ink.
Next match
Equipa A · Equipa B
45%
28%
27%
1 45%X 28%2 27%
View as table
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1 | 45% |
| X | 28% |
| 2 | 27% |
Three outcomes, one bar: each segment with its value below it, so nothing depends on colour.
Resident population by age group
View as table
| Age group | millions |
|---|---|
| 0–14 | 1,3 M |
| 15–24 | 1,1 M |
| 25–64 | 5,6 M |
| 65+ | 2,4 M |
One hundred people
Each dot is 1% of the group
- 0–17 16%
- 18–39 27%
- 40–64 35%
- 65+ 22%
View as table
| Group | Share |
|---|---|
| 0–17 | 16% |
| 18–39 | 27% |
| 40–64 | 35% |
| 65+ | 22% |
Series and status colours
Validated on cream and on forest: lightness band, chroma, colour-vision separation and contrast
Series, in this order, on cream
1 · teal#159881
2 · ouro#a27d27
3 · pervinca#697fc5
4 · coral#ba6b4f
On forest
Status, always with an icon and a word
good
warning
serious
critical
Never more than four series: the fifth folds into "Others" or the chart is faceted. Colour follows the entity, never its rank. Text never wears the series colour.
- Form first, colour last: a number is a tile, not a one-bar chart; magnitude is one hue, identity is the series, polarity is a pair.
- One axis. Two measures of different scale are two charts.
- Thin marks: 2px lines, bars up to 24px, 8px dots with a cream ring, a hairline grid.
- Every chart has its table and its dated source; the hover tip adds, it never hides.
- No invented party or club colours, no rainbows, no pies.
- No surface pastel inside a chart: light mint, mustard, coral and periwinkle stay on covers.
09
Communication
The voice is the site's: warm, precise and honest about uncertainty. One line, one description and two bios, the same everywhere, and a social kit generated by the same code as the sharing cards.
Line and description
Dados para compreender Portugal.
Previsões e análises com a incerteza à vista: economia, Liga Portugal, eleições e população.
Bio · 160 characters
Previsões e análises sobre Portugal, com a incerteza à vista. Economia, Liga Portugal, eleições e um atlas humano do país. Metodologia aberta.
Forecasts and analysis on Portugal, uncertainty in plain sight. Economy, Liga Portugal, elections and a human atlas of the country. Open methodology.
How it is written
- Sentence case; small caps only for editorial categories.
- Questions as headings where there is a question to answer: "How is the economy doing?"
- Uncertainty is stated: interval, date, source. An estimate is never presented as a fact.
- One action per piece, with a verb: explore, compare, read.
- No startup enthusiasm, no emoji, no exclamation marks.
- No colour saying whether a number is good: the text says it.
- Downloadavatar-1024-forest.png1024 × 1024 · Avatar em todas as redes
- Downloadavatar-1024-paper.png1024 × 1024 · Avatar claro
- Downloadbanner-1500x500.png1500 × 500 · Cabeçalho do X e do Bluesky
- Downloadbanner-1500x500-dark.png1500 × 500 · Cabeçalho, sobre floresta
- Downloadlinkedin-cover-light.png1584 × 396 · Capa do LinkedIn, clara
- Downloadlinkedin-cover-dark.png1584 × 396 · Capa do LinkedIn, sobre floresta
- Downloadlinkedin-post-light.png1200 × 1200 · Publicação quadrada, clara
- Downloadlinkedin-post-dark.png1200 × 1200 · Publicação quadrada, sobre floresta
- Downloadpost-1600x900-light.png1600 × 900 · Publicação 16:9
- Downloadstory-1080x1920-light.png1080 × 1920 · Story, clara
- Downloadstory-1080x1920-dark.png1080 × 1920 · Story, sobre floresta
Regenerate everything with npm run brand. The Liga matchday card comes from node scripts/generate-social-images.mjs.
10
The files
The files that matter: SVG for everything on screen and in print, PNG where SVG is not accepted.
- Downloadestimador-logo.svgAssinatura, pinho sobre transparente
- Downloadestimador-logo-paper.svgAssinatura, papel sobre transparente, para fundos escuros
- Downloadestimador-logo@4x.pngAssinatura em PNG, 880 px
- Downloadestimador-logo-paper@4x.pngAssinatura em PNG sobre floresta
- Downloadestimador-mark.svgSímbolo completo, 48 × 24
- Downloadestimador-mark-paper.svgSímbolo completo, papel
- Downloadestimador-mark-small.svgSímbolo reduzido, 32 × 32, para menos de 24 px
- Downloadestimador-app-icon.svgÍcone de app, papel sobre floresta
- Downloadestimador-app-icon-512.pngÍcone de app em PNG, 512 px
