Parliamentary 2025
Archive · 2025
District map
The forecast of 16 May 2025 by district, for the election of 18 May 2025. Choose a district to see each party’s predicted vote share.
Forecast by district and region
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Choose a district on the map or from the list: each party’s predicted vote share appears here.
View districts and regions as a table: Predicted vote share by district and region
| District or region | Leading | AD | PS | CH | IL | L | CDU | BE | PAN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Açores | AD | 39.9% | 29.7% | 17.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Aveiro | AD | 40.9% | 25.3% | 17.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Beja | PS | 20.0% | 31.5% | 24.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Braga | AD | 38.5% | 27.9% | 17.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Bragança | AD | 45.2% | 26.9% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Castelo Branco | PS | 31.9% | 32.0% | 21.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Coimbra | AD | 34.5% | 30.5% | 17.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Évora | PS | 24.8% | 30.8% | 22.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Faro | CH | 26.6% | 23.8% | 29.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Guarda | AD | 40.0% | 28.7% | 20.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Leiria | AD | 40.2% | 21.6% | 21.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Lisboa | AD | 29.6% | 26.6% | 20.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Madeira | AD | 46.1% | 21.1% | 19.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Portalegre | PS | 25.9% | 31.8% | 27.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Porto | AD | 35.7% | 28.9% | 16.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Santarém | AD | 30.9% | 25.9% | 25.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Setúbal | PS | 21.0% | 28.9% | 23.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Viana do Castelo | AD | 40.9% | 26.5% | 18.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Vila Real | AD | 44.6% | 27.8% | 17.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Viseu | AD | 42.6% | 25.8% | 20.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
Colour shows the party with the highest estimated vote share, not a probability of winning. Archived forecast, not official results.
How to read the map
- Colours
- Each district has the colour of the party with the highest predicted vote share in that region; the key under the map says which colour is which party.
- Interaction
- Tap or hover over a district to see each party’s predicted vote share, or choose it from the list above the map.
- Islands
- The Azores and Madeira appear as multiple islands, but forecasts are aggregated by region.
Leading party by district
Districts each party leads
- AD14
- PS5
- CH1
Districts and autonomous regions: 20
All 20 districts and autonomous regions, by the party with the highest predicted vote share. It is not the count of likely seats.
This colour only shows the predicted vote share. For where seats could actually change party, see the district analysis with the ENSC index.
See seats in play