Liga 2 in probabilities

Final table — 2025-26

All 306 matches over 34 matchdays. Two up, two down.

#	Club	J	W	D	L	GF	GA	DG	Pts
1	Marítimo	34	20	6	8	50	29	+21	66
2	Ac. Viseu	34	17	8	9	58	33	+25	59
3	TOTorreense	34	18	5	11	46	33	+13	59
4	FPFC Porto BB	34	15	6	13	41	42	−1	51
5	VIVizela	34	14	9	11	39	40	−1	51
6	ULU. Leiria	34	13	11	10	52	46	+6	50
7	LELeixões	34	15	5	14	46	55	−9	50
8	FEFeirense	34	12	10	12	37	40	−3	46
9	DCDesp. Chaves	34	13	6	15	42	40	+2	45
10	BBBenfica BB	34	11	11	12	43	44	−1	44
11	FEFelgueiras	34	11	11	12	34	38	−4	44
12	LOLourosa	34	11	10	13	44	52	−8	43
13	SBSporting BB	34	13	3	18	41	34	+7	42
14	PEPenafiel	34	11	8	15	37	39	−2	41
15	FAFarense	34	10	10	14	31	37	−6	40
16	POPortimonense	34	11	7	16	39	49	−10	40
17	PFPaços de Ferreira	34	9	12	13	34	48	−14	39
18	OLOliveirense	34	8	10	16	34	49	−15	34

Promoted to the PrimeiraRelegated to Liga 3BReserve side, cannot be promoted

The promotion race, from the inside

At matchday 9 the model gave Marítimo 16% and Ac. Viseu 6%. By matchday 25 those were 97% and 54%. That is how a race closes — slowly, and then all at once.

The probabilistic table, matchday by matchday

Each block is an independent refit that saw only the matches played up to that matchday, followed by 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The last column shows where each club actually finished.

Matchday 9

81 matches seen, 225 simulated

Club	J	Pts	Final pts	1st	Promotion	Relegation	Finished
SBSporting BB	9	19	58.4 ±8	36%	—	<1%	13th
VIVizela	9	16	55.9 ±7	21%	40%	<1%	5th
TOTorreense	9	17	52.2 ±7	8%	19%	<1%	3rd
ULU. Leiria	9	15	51.4 ±7	7%	17%	<1%	6th
Marítimo	9	14	51.3 ±7	7%	16%	1%	1st
DCDesp. Chaves	9	14	51.1 ±7	7%	17%	1%	9th
FAFarense	9	12	50.5 ±7	6%	15%	2%	15th
FEFelgueiras	9	12	47.1 ±7	2%	7%	4%	11th
Ac. Viseu	9	12	46.5 ±7	2%	6%	4%	2nd
BBBenfica BB	9	10	43.8 ±7	<1%	—	9%	10th
FEFeirense	9	11	43.0 ±7	<1%	2%	11%	8th
LOLourosa	9	10	42.7 ±8	<1%	3%	16%	12th
POPortimonense	9	11	40.4 ±7	<1%	<1%	23%	16th
LELeixões	9	10	40.2 ±7	<1%	<1%	22%	7th
PFPaços de Ferreira	9	8	40.2 ±7	<1%	<1%	21%	17th
PEPenafiel	9	9	39.6 ±7	<1%	<1%	23%	14th
OLOliveirense	9	11	39.1 ±7	<1%	<1%	26%	18th
FPFC Porto BB	9	5	37.3 ±7	<1%	—	36%	4th

Matchday 17

153 matches seen, 153 simulated

Club	J	Pts	Final pts	1st	Promotion	Relegation	Finished
Marítimo	17	36	61.9 ±6	60%	80%	—	1st
SBSporting BB	17	29	55.5 ±6	17%	—	<1%	13th
Ac. Viseu	17	29	53.5 ±6	9%	25%	<1%	2nd
VIVizela	17	25	51.7 ±6	5%	16%	<1%	5th
DCDesp. Chaves	17	26	50.7 ±6	4%	12%	<1%	9th
ULU. Leiria	17	25	49.9 ±6	3%	9%	<1%	6th
LOLourosa	17	24	47.0 ±6	1%	5%	3%	12th
TOTorreense	17	23	46.7 ±6	<1%	3%	3%	3rd
FEFelgueiras	17	23	46.3 ±6	<1%	3%	3%	11th
BBBenfica BB	17	22	45.6 ±6	<1%	—	4%	10th
FAFarense	17	20	45.5 ±6	<1%	2%	5%	15th
FEFeirense	17	21	43.2 ±5	<1%	<1%	9%	8th
FPFC Porto BB	17	21	43.1 ±6	<1%	—	10%	4th
PFPaços de Ferreira	17	19	40.7 ±6	<1%	<1%	20%	17th
PEPenafiel	17	19	40.3 ±5	<1%	<1%	20%	14th
POPortimonense	17	19	38.8 ±6	<1%	<1%	32%	16th
OLOliveirense	17	18	36.9 ±5	<1%	<1%	43%	18th
LELeixões	17	17	36.8 ±5	—	<1%	47%	7th

Matchday 25

225 matches seen, 81 simulated

Club	J	Pts	Final pts	1st	Promotion	Relegation	Finished
Marítimo	25	50	64.4 ±4	85%	97%	—	1st
Ac. Viseu	25	44	57.1 ±4	10%	54%	—	2nd
ULU. Leiria	25	41	54.1 ±4	3%	19%	—	6th
TOTorreense	25	39	51.9 ±4	<1%	7%	—	3rd
VIVizela	25	38	51.6 ±4	<1%	8%	—	5th
SBSporting BB	25	38	51.4 ±4	<1%	—	—	13th
FPFC Porto BB	25	37	49.8 ±4	<1%	—	<1%	4th
LOLourosa	25	37	49.3 ±4	<1%	3%	<1%	12th
BBBenfica BB	25	34	46.3 ±4	<1%	—	<1%	10th
DCDesp. Chaves	25	33	46.0 ±4	<1%	<1%	<1%	9th
FEFeirense	25	32	43.6 ±4	—	<1%	3%	8th
LELeixões	25	31	41.9 ±4	—	<1%	9%	7th
FEFelgueiras	25	29	41.1 ±4	—	<1%	11%	11th
FAFarense	25	28	41.0 ±4	—	—	12%	15th
PEPenafiel	25	29	39.7 ±4	—	—	15%	14th
PFPaços de Ferreira	25	27	38.3 ±4	—	—	33%	17th
OLOliveirense	25	26	36.3 ±4	—	—	51%	18th
POPortimonense	25	24	34.6 ±4	—	—	66%	16th

Who was actually good

Attack and defence estimated from the season's 306 matches, with opponent and home advantage already taken out. It is the model's read on the whole season, not on end-of-season form.

ClubAttackDefence

Ac. Viseu

Marítimo

TOTorreense

SBSporting BB

ULU. Leiria

DCDesp. Chaves

VIVizela

FPFC Porto BB

BBBenfica BB

PEPenafiel

FEFeirense

FEFelgueiras

FAFarense

LOLourosa

LELeixões

POPortimonense

PFPaços de Ferreira

OLOliveirense

Offsets from the league average, on the model's log scale. Bars to the right are better: more goals scored in attack, fewer conceded in defence.

What this model does not have

The part worth reading before trusting a number. Written by the data exporter itself, not by hand.

• This is a lighter model than the Primeira Liga one. It uses goals only: no shots on target, no xG and no squad market values, because we do not hold that data for Liga 2.
• Without xG there are no expected points and no luck index — the two columns that separate merit from result in the Primeira pages.
• The fit pools recent seasons with equal weight and no time decay. A club that changed squad heavily gets the average of its recent years rather than its current form.
• B teams (Benfica B, FC Porto B, Sporting CP B) play but cannot be promoted. Their promotion probability is shown as “—”; the slot passing to the next eligible club is not simulated, so everyone else's promotion odds are slightly understated.
• Clubs just promoted from Liga 3 arrive with no history in this dataset. The hierarchical prior starts them at the league average, which is prudent but uninformative.
• Both teams' goals are treated as independent (plain Poisson), with no Dixon-Coles low-score correction and no shared component.
• The 2025-26 season is over. The probabilities shown come from refits that saw only matches played up to each checkpoint — no later result entered the fit — but they are a retrospective exercise, not a forecast published at the time.