Santa Clara·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
What the number means: if Vinícius Lopes plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.18 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.09 and 0.29. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Attacking contribution
Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27
#35 of 40 published
The same structure as the finishing metric, but adding goals and assists together. It sees what the goals-only metric could not: who creates.
Few minutes pull the estimate toward replacement level and widen the interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's three Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 2,254 | 8 | +0.18 |
| 2025-26 | 1,540 | 6 | +0.18 |
| 2026-27 | 596 | 1 | +0.18 |
There is no telling whether he improved
Between 2025-26 and 2026-27 the estimate moved −0.006 — but the margin of error on that difference is ±0.093, 14 times larger. In other words: indistinguishable from zero. A big goal season is usually natural variation, not new skill.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
- 10 Oct10 Oct 2026Casa Piaaway70' · startedno goals6.6
- 20 Sep20 Sep 2026Sp. Bragahome89' · startedno goals7.0
- 13 Sep13 Sep 2026Aroucaaway82' · startedno goals6.9
- 6 Sep6 Sep 2026Rio Avehome76' · started19.4
- 29 Aug29 Aug 2026Alvercaaway71' · startedno goals6.6
- 23 Aug23 Aug 2026Famalicãohome62' · startedno goals7.4
- 15 Aug15 Aug 2026Ac. Viseuaway78' · startedno goals6.9
- 10 Aug10 Aug 2026Nacionalhome68' · startedno goals6.1
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 30,858 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 10 October 2026, with the 2026-27 season in progress: minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there until those models are refitted; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.