Sp. Braga·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
What the number means: if Pau Víctor plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.21 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.10 and 0.35. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Attacking contribution
Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27
#11 of 40 published
The same structure as the finishing metric, but adding goals and assists together. It sees what the goals-only metric could not: who creates.
Few minutes pull the estimate toward replacement level and widen the interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's two Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2,269 | 10 | +0.22 |
| 2026-27 | 524 | 3 | +0.22 |
There is no telling whether he improved
Between 2025-26 and 2026-27 the estimate moved −0.002 — but the margin of error on that difference is ±0.113, many times larger. In other words: indistinguishable from zero. A big goal season is usually natural variation, not new skill.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
- 2026-27 season
- 9 Oct9 Oct 2026Sportinghome74' · startedno goals6.8
- 20 Sep20 Sep 2026Santa Claraaway90' · startedno goals6.0
- 14 Sep14 Sep 2026Estorilhome90' · startedno goals6.4
- 10 Sep10 Sep 2026Estrelaaway76' · startedno goals6.1
- 5 Sep5 Sep 2026Alvercaaway96' · started28.3
- 31 Aug31 Aug 2026Vitóriahome65' · startedno goals6.1
- 9 Aug9 Aug 2026Moreirenseaway33' · sub17.1
- 2025-26 season
- 16 May16 May 2026Estrelahome90' · started17.3
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 30,858 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 10 October 2026, with the 2026-27 season in progress: minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there until those models are refitted; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.