Famalicão·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
What the number means: if Óscar Aranda plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.17 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.06 and 0.29. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Attacking contribution
Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27
#27 of 40 published
The same structure as the finishing metric, but adding goals and assists together. It sees what the goals-only metric could not: who creates.
Few minutes pull the estimate toward replacement level and widen the interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's four Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 750 | 1 | +0.17 |
| 2024-25 | 2,622 | 9 | +0.18 |
| 2025-26 | 16 | 0 | +0.17 |
| 2026-27 | 136 | 0 | +0.17 |
There is no telling whether he improved
Not enough minutes to compare seasons: in 2025-26 he played 16 minutes (the minimum to compare is 450), so that season's estimate is almost all the model's starting point.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
- 2026-27 season
- 19 Sep19 Sep 2026Nacionalaway10' · subno goals6.7
- 13 Sep13 Sep 2026Sportinghome14' · subno goals6.6
- 5 Sep5 Sep 2026Estrelaaway16' · subno goals6.5
- 30 Aug30 Aug 2026Gil Vicentehome13' · subno goals6.6
- 23 Aug23 Aug 2026Santa Claraaway25' · subno goals6.7
- 16 Aug16 Aug 2026Marítimohome45' · startedno goals6.8
- 7 Aug7 Aug 2026Estorilaway13' · subno goals6.9
- 2025-26 season
- 10 Apr10 Apr 2026Moreirensehome16' · subno goals6.6
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 30,858 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 10 October 2026, with the 2026-27 season in progress: minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there until those models are refitted; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.