Skip to content
Menu
Elections

Archive · 2026

Presidential election 2026: what the forecast said

Forecasts for both rounds, preserved with the information available at the time. These are not election results.

Runoff on 8 February 2026 · forecast of 6 February 2026

Runoff · archived forecast

António José Seguro won the runoff in over 99% of the simulations

The forecast of 6 February 2026 for the runoff on 8 February 2026, between António José Seguro and André Ventura.

How the runoff forecast was madeOfficial 2nd-round result (SGMAI)

António José Seguro

over99%
Win probability
67.5%(61.3%–72.9%)
Mean share of valid votes
95% credible interval (P2.5–P97.5) · Excluding blank and null votes

André Ventura

under1%
Win probability
32.5%(27.2%–38.8%)
Mean share of valid votes
95% credible interval (P2.5–P97.5) · Excluding blank and null votes
António José Seguro67.5%
32.5%André Ventura
Excluding blank and null votes

Estimated support up to the runoff

This trajectory is the runoff model’s estimate, fitted to the runoff polls available up to 6 February 2026 and starting from a prior built from the first round and a vote-transfer survey.

Estimated runoff support, day by day

Daily estimated support for each candidate, as a share of all ballots (blank and null included), with uncertainty intervals.

At the end of each line, the estimate on 6 February 2026 and its 90% interval.

20%30%40%50%60%70%80%21 Jan 202629 Jan 20266 Feb 2026António José SeguroAndré VenturaAntónio José Seguro64.3% (59.9–68.3)André Ventura31.0% (27.3–35.3)
Line: mean estimateBand: 50% credible interval (P25–P75)Light band: 90% credible interval (P5–P95)
View both candidates’ series, latest first: Estimated support by candidate and date
Estimated support by candidate and date
DateCandidateMeanP25P75P5P95
6 Feb 2026António José Seguro64.3%62.8%66.0%59.9%68.3%
6 Feb 2026André Ventura31.0%29.4%32.5%27.3%35.3%
5 Feb 2026António José Seguro64.3%62.8%65.9%60.2%68.1%
5 Feb 2026André Ventura31.0%29.5%32.5%27.4%35.0%
4 Feb 2026António José Seguro64.3%62.9%65.9%60.4%67.9%
4 Feb 2026André Ventura31.0%29.5%32.5%27.6%34.8%
3 Feb 2026António José Seguro64.4%63.0%65.9%60.7%67.9%
3 Feb 2026André Ventura31.0%29.5%32.4%27.6%34.6%
2 Feb 2026António José Seguro64.4%63.1%65.9%60.9%67.8%
2 Feb 2026André Ventura30.9%29.5%32.3%27.8%34.4%
1 Feb 2026António José Seguro64.4%63.1%65.8%61.0%67.8%
1 Feb 2026André Ventura31.0%29.6%32.3%27.8%34.4%
31 Jan 2026António José Seguro64.5%63.1%65.9%61.0%67.9%
31 Jan 2026André Ventura30.9%29.5%32.2%27.6%34.4%
30 Jan 2026António José Seguro64.5%63.2%66.0%61.0%67.9%
30 Jan 2026André Ventura30.9%29.5%32.2%27.6%34.3%
29 Jan 2026António José Seguro64.6%63.2%66.0%61.1%67.9%
29 Jan 2026André Ventura30.8%29.5%32.2%27.6%34.3%
28 Jan 2026António José Seguro64.7%63.3%66.1%61.2%68.1%
28 Jan 2026André Ventura30.8%29.4%32.1%27.5%34.3%
27 Jan 2026António José Seguro64.8%63.4%66.2%61.2%68.3%
27 Jan 2026André Ventura30.7%29.2%32.1%27.3%34.2%
26 Jan 2026António José Seguro64.9%63.5%66.3%61.3%68.4%
26 Jan 2026André Ventura30.6%29.2%32.0%27.1%34.2%
25 Jan 2026António José Seguro64.9%63.5%66.4%61.3%68.6%
25 Jan 2026André Ventura30.5%29.1%32.0%27.0%34.2%
24 Jan 2026António José Seguro65.0%63.5%66.5%61.3%68.8%
24 Jan 2026André Ventura30.5%29.0%31.9%26.8%34.1%
23 Jan 2026António José Seguro65.1%63.6%66.6%61.3%68.9%
23 Jan 2026André Ventura30.4%29.0%31.9%26.8%34.1%
22 Jan 2026António José Seguro65.1%63.7%66.6%61.4%69.0%
22 Jan 2026André Ventura30.3%28.9%31.8%26.6%34.1%
21 Jan 2026António José Seguro65.2%63.7%66.7%61.5%69.1%
21 Jan 2026André Ventura30.3%28.8%31.8%26.5%34.0%
Source: estimador.pt modelForecast of 6 February 2026Methodology

The spread of the simulations

Each candidate’s valid-vote share on election day, by simulation

Each dot is one simulation: each candidate’s share of the valid vote on election day. The solid line marks the median; the dashed line, the majority.

Majority: 50% of the valid vote

800 of the 8,000 simulations drawn, chosen at regular intervals; the medians and the table use all 8,000.

View as table: Share of the valid vote on election day, across all simulations
Share of the valid vote on election day, across all simulations
CandidateP5P25MedianP75P95Simulations above 50%
António José Seguro62.6%65.8%67.6%69.3%71.8%over 99%
André Ventura28.2%30.7%32.4%34.2%37.4%under 1%
Source: estimador.pt model, 8,000 simulationsForecast of 6 February 2026Methodology

Key scenarios

  • Margin under 10 points of the valid voteunder 1%
  • Ventura above 40% of the valid vote1%

Share of the 8,000 simulations in which each scenario happens.

Projected vote share on election day

Share of all ballots, with the 95% interval

Includes blank and null ballots — so each candidate's share is lower than the valid-vote share above.

António José SeguroLeading
64.4%
95% credible interval (P2.5–P97.5): 58.1%–69.6%
André Ventura
31.0%
95% credible interval (P2.5–P97.5): 25.9%–36.9%
Blank/Null
4.6%
95% credible interval (P2.5–P97.5): 3.2%–6.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 8,000 simulationsForecast of 6 February 2026Methodology

More from estimador.pt

Parliamentary 2025All elections (archive)Methodology

About the presidential forecast

Portuguese presidential elections have two rounds: if no candidate wins more than 50% of the valid vote in the first, the top two contest a runoff. This forecast modelled the declared voting intention in the polls available at the date of each forecast.

  • 8 candidates modelled, plus “others”
  • First round on 18 January 2026 · forecast of 16 January 2026, with polls to 15 January
  • Runoff on 8 February 2026 · forecast of 6 February 2026

Official results (SGMAI):Official results (SGMAI): 1st roundOfficial results (SGMAI): 2nd round