How our Liga Portugal forecast model works
Our model estimates the offensive and defensive strength of every Liga Portugal team. It does this by combining match results from the current season with an initial estimate based on squad value (TransferMarkt data). Teams with more valuable squads start with a stronger baseline, but on-pitch results quickly adjust these estimates.
After estimating each team's strength, we simulate every remaining match of the season — thousands of times. In each simulation, goals are randomly generated based on the team's offensive strength, the opponent's defensive ability, and home advantage. Each simulation produces a complete final table.
The probabilities we show come directly from these simulations. If Porto finishes first in 66% of simulations, we say they have a 66% chance of winning the title. There are no magic formulas — just counting how often each outcome occurs.
To calculate the impact of each match, we fix the result (home win, draw, or away win) and simulate the rest of the season. We compare the championship probability in each scenario. The matches where the gap between best and worst case is largest are the most decisive — their result most changes the title race.
For each team with title aspirations or at risk of relegation, we look at their remaining matches and compare two things: how often they win each match across all simulations, and how often they win that same match in the simulations where they reach their goal. The bigger the gap, the more essential it is to win that match.
For example, if Benfica beats Sporting in 23% of all simulations, but in 72% of simulations where they win the league — that means beating Sporting is nearly a prerequisite for the title.
No model is perfect. Ours assumes team strength stays relatively constant throughout the season and doesn't account for factors like:
Forecasts are updated after each matchday, incorporating new results. The more matches played, the more accurate the estimates tend to become.