Smoothed polling averages based on 13056 data points. Lines show estimated vote share over time with uncertainty bands.
Each dot represents one simulation outcome. Black lines show median seat counts for each coalition.
Based on 9,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Dots show mean projections, bands show 50% and 80% credibility intervals.
Districts where seat allocation is uncertain - small changes in vote share could flip seats between parties.
ENSC (Effective Number of Seat Changes) measures seat allocation uncertainty. Districts with ENSC > 0.8 are classified as having "seats in play" where small vote share changes could flip seats between parties under the D'Hondt proportional system.
| Pollster | AD | PS | CH | IL | BE | CDU | L | PAN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aximage | -0.04 Aximage → AD: -0.038 logit | Aximage → PS: -0.006 logit | Aximage → CH: 0.018 logit | +0.05 Aximage → IL: 0.051 logit | Aximage → BE: -0.008 logit | Aximage → CDU: -0.016 logit | +0.09 Aximage → L: 0.094 logit | +0.04 Aximage → PAN: 0.041 logit |
| CESOP-U.Católica | CESOP-U.Católica → AD: 0.010 logit | CESOP-U.Católica → PS: 0.006 logit | -0.03 CESOP-U.Católica → CH: -0.025 logit | +0.18 CESOP-U.Católica → IL: 0.175 logit | CESOP-U.Católica → BE: -0.018 logit | CESOP-U.Católica → CDU: 0.004 logit | +0.15 CESOP-U.Católica → L: 0.152 logit | -0.14 CESOP-U.Católica → PAN: -0.139 logit |
| Consulmark2 | +0.03 Consulmark2 → AD: 0.027 logit | -0.03 Consulmark2 → PS: -0.028 logit | Consulmark2 → CH: -0.010 logit | +0.22 Consulmark2 → IL: 0.220 logit | Consulmark2 → BE: 0.011 logit | -0.04 Consulmark2 → CDU: -0.039 logit | +0.22 Consulmark2 → L: 0.222 logit | -0.21 Consulmark2 → PAN: -0.213 logit |
| ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris | ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → AD: 0.019 logit | +0.04 ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → PS: 0.038 logit | +0.04 ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → CH: 0.043 logit | -0.24 ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → IL: -0.239 logit | ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → BE: -0.016 logit | +0.06 ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → CDU: 0.064 logit | -0.39 ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → L: -0.390 logit | +0.04 ICS/ISCTE/GFK Metris → PAN: 0.037 logit |
| Intercampus | -0.12 Intercampus → AD: -0.116 logit | -0.08 Intercampus → PS: -0.077 logit | Intercampus → CH: -0.005 logit | +0.25 Intercampus → IL: 0.246 logit | Intercampus → BE: 0.017 logit | -0.06 Intercampus → CDU: -0.057 logit | +0.24 Intercampus → L: 0.237 logit | +0.27 Intercampus → PAN: 0.265 logit |
| Metris | Metris → AD: 0.004 logit | Metris → PS: 0.017 logit | Metris → CH: 0.010 logit | Metris → IL: 0.016 logit | Metris → BE: 0.005 logit | Metris → CDU: 0.018 logit | -0.19 Metris → L: -0.191 logit | -0.04 Metris → PAN: -0.043 logit |
| Pitagorica | Pitagorica → AD: 0.004 logit | Pitagorica → PS: 0.010 logit | -0.03 Pitagorica → CH: -0.026 logit | +0.19 Pitagorica → IL: 0.191 logit | -0.04 Pitagorica → BE: -0.039 logit | Pitagorica → CDU: 0.009 logit | +0.20 Pitagorica → L: 0.196 logit | -0.11 Pitagorica → PAN: -0.108 logit |
House effects show how each pollster systematically differs from the polling average in logit space. Red cells indicate the pollster tends to show higher support for that party, blue cells show lower support.
Values are logit deviations. Larger absolute values indicate stronger systematic bias. Hover over cells for exact values.
Polling data from major Portuguese polling firms, weighted by reliability and recency. Historical election results and demographic data.
Monte Carlo simulation accounting for polling uncertainty, district-level variations, and D'Hondt seat allocation system.
Model is updated as new polling data becomes available. Uncertainty decreases as election day approaches.