António José Seguro has >99% chance of winning

Forecast for the presidential runoff election between António José Seguro and André Ventura.

Based on latest polling data·Methodology

António José Seguro

>99%

Win probability

67.5%(61.3% - 72.9%)

Valid votes

André Ventura

<0.01%

Win probability

32.5%(27.2% - 38.8%)

Valid votes

António José Seguro67.5%

32.5%André Ventura

50%

Excluding blank and null votes

Scenario distribution

Each dot represents one possible election outcome based on simulations.

Based on 8000 simulations

Key scenarios

Ventura surpasses AD's 2024 result (32.7%)45%

Race within 10 points<1%

Ventura exceeds 40%1%

Probabilities calculated from model simulations.

Projected vote share

António José SeguroLeader

64.3%

95% CI: 58.1% - 69.6%

André Ventura

31.0%

95% CI: 25.9% - 36.9%

Blank/Null

4.6%

95% CI: 3.2% - 6.3%

0%50%75%

About the presidential forecast

Portuguese presidential elections use a two-round system. If no candidate receives more than 50% of votes in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a second round. This forecast models declared voting intention based on available polling data.

9 candidates modeled

Jan 18, 2026