{
  "season": "2026-27",
  "matchday": 1,
  "generated": "2026-08-11T17:48:37.519449+00:00",
  "thread_limit": 280,
  "posts": {
    "pt": {
      "whatsapp": "Liga Portugal · jornada 1\nAs probabilidades do modelo depois da jornada.\n\nO FC Porto lidera com 3 pontos em 1 jogo.\n\nTítulo: Sporting 59%, Benfica 22% (-2,4 pp), FC Porto 18% (+2,6 pp).\n\nDescida: Casa Pia 42% (+17,6 pp), Estrela da Amadora 32% (+5,3 pp), Rio Ave 29% (+14,6 pp).\n\nA maior surpresa da jornada: Benfica 2-2 Académico de Viseu. O modelo dava 8,9% a este resultado.\n\nPontos contra xPts: Vitória de Guimarães soma 0 pontos para 2,5 esperados (-2,5).\n\nO jogo que mais mexe na jornada 2 é Sporting–Vitória de Guimarães (77% / 15% / 7,6%). Se o Sporting ganhar, o título vai a 62%; se perder, 46%. Agora: 59%.\n\nTabela completa, cenários e o que falta a cada equipa:\nhttps://estimador.pt/pt/desporto/liga",
      "thread": [
        "Liga Portugal · jornada 1.\n\nBenfica 2-2 Académico de Viseu. O modelo dava 8,9% a este resultado.\n\n1/7",
        "Título: Sporting 59%, Benfica 22% (-2,4 pp), FC Porto 18% (+2,6 pp).\n\n2/7",
        "Descida: Casa Pia 42% (+17,6 pp), Estrela da Amadora 32% (+5,3 pp), Rio Ave 29% (+14,6 pp).\n\n3/7",
        "O maior salto da jornada foi do Marítimo: descida de 42% para 16% (-26,2 pp).\n\n4/7",
        "Pontos contra xPts: Vitória de Guimarães soma 0 pontos para 2,5 esperados (-2,5).\n\n5/7",
        "Jornada 2: Sporting–Vitória de Guimarães (77% / 15% / 7,6%). Se o Sporting ganhar, o título vai a 62%; se perder, 46%. Agora: 59%.\n\n6/7",
        "Tudo — tabela, cenários e contas — em https://estimador.pt/pt/desporto/liga\n\n7/7"
      ],
      "thread_chars": [
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      "instagram": "Liga Portugal · jornada 1\n\nO FC Porto lidera com 3 pontos em 1 jogo.\n\nTítulo: Sporting 59%, Benfica 22% (-2,4 pp), FC Porto 18% (+2,6 pp).\n\nDescida: Casa Pia 42% (+17,6 pp), Estrela da Amadora 32% (+5,3 pp), Rio Ave 29% (+14,6 pp).\n\nA maior surpresa da jornada: Benfica 2-2 Académico de Viseu. O modelo dava 8,9% a este resultado.\n\nO jogo que mais mexe na jornada 2 é Sporting–Vitória de Guimarães (77% / 15% / 7,6%). Se o Sporting ganhar, o título vai a 62%; se perder, 46%. Agora: 59%.\n\nNúmeros completos em estimador.pt (link na bio).\n\n#LigaPortugal #futebol #dados #estimador",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/pt/desporto/liga",
      "liga_url": "https://estimador.pt/pt/desporto/liga"
    },
    "en": {
      "whatsapp": "Liga Portugal · matchday 1\nThe model's probabilities after the matchday.\n\nFC Porto lead with 3 points from 1 match.\n\nTitle: Sporting 59%, Benfica 22% (-2.4 pp), FC Porto 18% (+2.6 pp).\n\nRelegation: Casa Pia 42% (+17.6 pp), Estrela da Amadora 32% (+5.3 pp), Rio Ave 29% (+14.6 pp).\n\nBiggest upset of the matchday: Benfica 2-2 Académico de Viseu. The model gave that result 8.9%.\n\nPoints vs xPts: Vitória de Guimarães has 0 points against 2.5 expected (-2.5).\n\nThe fixture that moves the league most in matchday 2 is Sporting–Vitória de Guimarães (77% / 15% / 7.6%). If Sporting win, the title goes to 62%; if they lose, 46%. Now: 59%.\n\nFull table, scenarios and what each team still needs:\nhttps://estimador.pt/en/desporto/liga",
      "thread": [
        "Liga Portugal · matchday 1.\n\nBenfica 2-2 Académico de Viseu. The model gave that result 8.9%.\n\n1/7",
        "Title: Sporting 59%, Benfica 22% (-2.4 pp), FC Porto 18% (+2.6 pp).\n\n2/7",
        "Relegation: Casa Pia 42% (+17.6 pp), Estrela da Amadora 32% (+5.3 pp), Rio Ave 29% (+14.6 pp).\n\n3/7",
        "Biggest swing of the matchday: Marítimo, relegation from 42% to 16% (-26.2 pp).\n\n4/7",
        "Points vs xPts: Vitória de Guimarães has 0 points against 2.5 expected (-2.5).\n\n5/7",
        "Matchday 2: Sporting–Vitória de Guimarães (77% / 15% / 7.6%). If Sporting win, the title goes to 62%; if they lose, 46%. Now: 59%.\n\n6/7",
        "Everything — table, scenarios, maths — at https://estimador.pt/en/desporto/liga\n\n7/7"
      ],
      "thread_chars": [
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      "instagram": "Liga Portugal · matchday 1\n\nFC Porto lead with 3 points from 1 match.\n\nTitle: Sporting 59%, Benfica 22% (-2.4 pp), FC Porto 18% (+2.6 pp).\n\nRelegation: Casa Pia 42% (+17.6 pp), Estrela da Amadora 32% (+5.3 pp), Rio Ave 29% (+14.6 pp).\n\nBiggest upset of the matchday: Benfica 2-2 Académico de Viseu. The model gave that result 8.9%.\n\nThe fixture that moves the league most in matchday 2 is Sporting–Vitória de Guimarães (77% / 15% / 7.6%). If Sporting win, the title goes to 62%; if they lose, 46%. Now: 59%.\n\nFull numbers at estimador.pt (link in bio).\n\n#LigaPortugal #football #data #estimador",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/en/desporto/liga",
      "liga_url": "https://estimador.pt/en/desporto/liga"
    }
  },
  "cards": [
    {
      "id": "movers",
      "file": "movers_md01.png",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/images/cards/movers_md01.png"
    },
    {
      "id": "luck",
      "file": "luck_md01.png",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/images/cards/luck_md01.png"
    },
    {
      "id": "title_race",
      "file": "title_race_md01.png",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/images/cards/title_race_md01.png"
    },
    {
      "id": "relegation_race",
      "file": "relegation_race_md01.png",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/images/cards/relegation_race_md01.png"
    },
    {
      "id": "upset",
      "file": "upset_md01.png",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/images/cards/upset_md01.png"
    },
    {
      "id": "preview",
      "file": "preview_md01.png",
      "url": "https://estimador.pt/images/cards/preview_md01.png"
    }
  ],
  "facts": {
    "season": "2026-27",
    "matchday": 1,
    "n_sims": 50000,
    "played": 9,
    "fixtures_left": 0,
    "leader": {
      "team": "Porto",
      "played": 1,
      "points": 3,
      "gd": 2,
      "gf": 2,
      "ga": 0
    },
    "title": [
      {
        "team": "Sporting CP",
        "value": 0.5908,
        "delta": -0.0019000000000000128
      },
      {
        "team": "Benfica",
        "value": 0.2183,
        "delta": -0.023800000000000016
      },
      {
        "team": "Porto",
        "value": 0.182,
        "delta": 0.02579999999999999
      }
    ],
    "relegation": [
      {
        "team": "Casa Pia",
        "value": 0.4241,
        "delta": 0.17629999999999998
      },
      {
        "team": "Estrela Amadora",
        "value": 0.316,
        "delta": 0.05309999999999998
      },
      {
        "team": "Rio Ave",
        "value": 0.291,
        "delta": 0.14629999999999999
      }
    ],
    "movers": [
      {
        "team": "Maritimo",
        "metric": "p_relegation",
        "delta": -0.26249999999999996,
        "now": 0.157,
        "before": 0.4195,
        "good": true
      },
      {
        "team": "Academico Viseu",
        "metric": "p_relegation",
        "delta": -0.2294,
        "now": 0.2011,
        "before": 0.4305,
        "good": true
      },
      {
        "team": "Casa Pia",
        "metric": "p_relegation",
        "delta": 0.17629999999999998,
        "now": 0.4241,
        "before": 0.2478,
        "good": false
      }
    ],
    "luck": {
      "best": {
        "team": "Arouca",
        "points": 3,
        "xpts": 0.4,
        "delta": 2.6
      },
      "worst": {
        "team": "Vitoria SC",
        "points": 0,
        "xpts": 2.5,
        "delta": -2.5
      }
    },
    "upset": {
      "home": "Benfica",
      "away": "Academico Viseu",
      "home_goals": 2,
      "away_goals": 2,
      "outcome": "D",
      "p_actual": 0.089,
      "p_home": 0.8669,
      "p_draw": 0.089,
      "p_away": 0.0441,
      "matchday": 1
    },
    "headline": {
      "home": "Sporting CP",
      "away": "Vitoria SC",
      "matchday": 2,
      "p_home": 0.77178,
      "p_draw": 0.15238,
      "p_away": 0.07584,
      "subject": "Sporting CP",
      "subject_is_home": true,
      "metric": "p_champion",
      "baseline": 0.5908,
      "if_win": 0.6176,
      "if_draw": 0.5194,
      "if_lose": 0.4623
    }
  }
}