{
  "season": "2026-27",
  "matchday": 8,
  "n_sims": 50000,
  "timestamp": "2026-10-17T13:05:07.366026+00:00",
  "decisive_matches": [
    {
      "home_team": "Sporting CP",
      "away_team": "Porto",
      "matchday": 29,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.3813,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4997,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.6471,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.2658,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Maritimo",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.3084,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.3032,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3157,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.3091,
      "relegation_swing": 0.0125
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Porto",
      "away_team": "Sporting CP",
      "matchday": 12,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.6212,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4747,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.3578,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.2634,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4321,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4321,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.4218,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.0103
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Benfica",
      "away_team": "Porto",
      "matchday": 24,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.3779,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4947,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.6246,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.2467,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Estoril",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.179,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.1688,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.178,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.1759,
      "relegation_swing": 0.0102
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Maritimo",
      "matchday": 18,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2866,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2817,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2865,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0049,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4169,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5562,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.641,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2241
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Nacional",
      "away_team": "Casa Pia",
      "matchday": 31,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.4915,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4839,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.4965,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.0126,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.3291,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4613,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.5505,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2214
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Nacional",
      "matchday": 14,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.4925,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4933,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.4869,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.0064,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4134,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5501,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.6304,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.217
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Maritimo",
      "away_team": "Nacional",
      "matchday": 12,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2816,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2852,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2889,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0073,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.5273,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4406,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.311,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2163
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Nacional",
      "away_team": "Maritimo",
      "matchday": 29,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2894,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.281,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2825,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0085,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.3323,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4592,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.5459,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2136
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Moreirense",
      "away_team": "Casa Pia",
      "matchday": 21,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2271,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2152,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2251,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0119,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.6066,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5324,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3961,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2104
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Rio Ave",
      "away_team": "Casa Pia",
      "matchday": 13,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.489,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4855,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.4993,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.0138,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.6011,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.527,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3951,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.206
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Rio Ave",
      "matchday": 30,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2889,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2861,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2807,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0083,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4147,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5439,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.6206,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2059
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Estoril",
      "matchday": 24,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2883,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2802,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2861,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0081,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4024,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.528,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.608,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2056
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Estoril",
      "away_team": "Nacional",
      "matchday": 19,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.283,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.285,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2901,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0071,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4962,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4159,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.2924,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2038
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "matchday": 26,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.491,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4846,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.4961,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.0114,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4229,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5448,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.6267,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2038
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Benfica",
      "away_team": "Casa Pia",
      "matchday": 19,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2365,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.1503,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.1247,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.1118,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.5417,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4713,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3392,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2025
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "away_team": "Nacional",
      "matchday": 21,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.22,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2221,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2278,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0078,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.5142,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4391,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3126,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.2016
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Nacional",
      "away_team": "Moreirense",
      "matchday": 15,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2259,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2255,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2174,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0085,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.3338,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4458,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.5333,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1995
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Nacional",
      "away_team": "Rio Ave",
      "matchday": 25,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.4879,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4942,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.4915,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.0063,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.3276,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4524,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.5254,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1979
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Sporting CP",
      "away_team": "Benfica",
      "matchday": 33,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.372,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2464,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.1748,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.1972,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4259,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4341,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.4282,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.0082
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "away_team": "Casa Pia",
      "matchday": 9,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.4901,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.487,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.4956,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.0086,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.6024,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5353,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.4064,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.196
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Benfica",
      "away_team": "Sporting CP",
      "matchday": 16,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.1938,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2721,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.3895,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.1957,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Rio Ave",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.1409,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.1464,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.1483,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.145,
      "relegation_swing": 0.0074
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Moreirense",
      "away_team": "Nacional",
      "matchday": 32,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2271,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.218,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2223,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0091,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.5107,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.434,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3156,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.195
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Academico Viseu",
      "matchday": 34,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2774,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2924,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2886,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0151,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4296,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5566,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.623,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1933
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Academico Viseu",
      "away_team": "Casa Pia",
      "matchday": 17,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2237,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2277,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2181,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0097,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.6059,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.536,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.4143,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1917
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Alverca",
      "away_team": "Casa Pia",
      "matchday": 11,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2249,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2171,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2261,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0091,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.5854,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5215,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3942,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1913
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Arouca",
      "matchday": 32,
      "most_affected_team": "Porto",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.4945,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.4868,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.4906,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.4908,
      "title_swing": 0.0077,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4175,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.537,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.6087,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1912
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Casa Pia",
      "away_team": "Famalicao",
      "matchday": 16,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2236,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2226,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.223,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.001,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Casa Pia",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.4035,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.5278,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.5946,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.5259,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1911
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Nacional",
      "away_team": "Academico Viseu",
      "matchday": 11,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2255,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2196,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2227,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0059,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.3396,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.463,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.5298,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1902
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Academico Viseu",
      "away_team": "Nacional",
      "matchday": 28,
      "most_affected_team": "Sporting CP",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.287,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2829,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2848,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2851,
      "title_swing": 0.0042,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Nacional",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.5126,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.4414,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3247,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.4286,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1878
    },
    {
      "home_team": "Maritimo",
      "away_team": "Moreirense",
      "matchday": 23,
      "most_affected_team": "Benfica",
      "p_champ_if_H": 0.2232,
      "p_champ_if_D": 0.2288,
      "p_champ_if_A": 0.2182,
      "p_champ_baseline": 0.2231,
      "title_swing": 0.0106,
      "most_affected_relegation_team": "Maritimo",
      "p_releg_if_H": 0.213,
      "p_releg_if_D": 0.322,
      "p_releg_if_A": 0.3987,
      "p_releg_baseline": 0.3091,
      "relegation_swing": 0.1856
    }
  ],
  "critical_paths": {
    "Benfica": {
      "target": "champion",
      "p_current": 0.2231,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4003,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26974,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.32996,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5796126949973104,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.24439662901201362,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.175990675990676,
          "win_uplift": 0.1793126949973104
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38168,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25238,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.36594,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.544826967903891,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2361484669176977,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.21902456517841135,
          "win_uplift": 0.16314696790389094
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28476,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2445,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.47074,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4282768513537744,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25363098440021514,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3180921642460104,
          "win_uplift": 0.1435168513537744
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.48294,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.24464,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.27242,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6074950690335306,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.20790747713824637,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.18459745382822307,
          "win_uplift": 0.12455506903353059
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.59006,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.21824,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.1917,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6967007351622736,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.17706652322036937,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.126232741617357,
          "win_uplift": 0.10664073516227357
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6332,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2133,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.1535,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7355208893670432,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.16720459028151335,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.09727452035144343,
          "win_uplift": 0.1023208893670432
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.67242,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.19612,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.13146,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7738031199569662,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1501703424780348,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07602653756499911,
          "win_uplift": 0.10138311995696614
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6385,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.21106,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.15044,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7383001613770844,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.16792182176797563,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.09377801685493993,
          "win_uplift": 0.09980016137708447
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.64472,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.22064,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.13464,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7435000896539358,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1743769051461359,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.08212300519992828,
          "win_uplift": 0.09878008965393581
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6936,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18138,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.12502,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.791554599246907,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.13349471041778735,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07495069033530571,
          "win_uplift": 0.09795459924690697
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6917,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18464,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.12366,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7847409001255156,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1411152949614488,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07414380491303568,
          "win_uplift": 0.09304090012551558
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.72304,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17052,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.10644,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8144163528778914,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12515689438766361,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.06042675273444504,
          "win_uplift": 0.09137635287789136
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.73648,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.1749,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08862,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8207817823202439,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12712928097543483,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.05208893670432132,
          "win_uplift": 0.08430178232024388
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.75706,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15208,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.09086,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8381746458669536,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10910883987807064,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.052716514254975796,
          "win_uplift": 0.0811146458669536
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.73472,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.16766,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.09762,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8147749686211224,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12748789671866595,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.05773713466021158,
          "win_uplift": 0.08005496862112238
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7669,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15284,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08026,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8436435359512282,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10928814774968622,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.04706831629908553,
          "win_uplift": 0.07674353595122818
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.77284,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.14444,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08272,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8479469248700018,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10319168011475703,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.04886139501524117,
          "win_uplift": 0.07510692487000181
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.77738,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.14364,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.07898,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8521606598529675,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10068136991213915,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.047157970234893314,
          "win_uplift": 0.07478065985296756
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7928,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13762,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.06958,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8599605522682445,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10032275416890801,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03971669356284741,
          "win_uplift": 0.06716055226824458
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.82964,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11842,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.05194,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8942980096826251,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.08059888829119598,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.02510310202617895,
          "win_uplift": 0.06465800968262503
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.80984,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12702,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.06314,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8742155280616819,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.08911601219293527,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.036668459745382825,
          "win_uplift": 0.0643755280616819
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.8346,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.0554,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8951945490407028,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.07315761161915008,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03164783934014703,
          "win_uplift": 0.06059454904070283
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.84094,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.1126,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04646,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8995875918952843,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.07611619150080688,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.02429621660390891,
          "win_uplift": 0.058647591895284235
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.85666,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.10036,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04298,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.9083736776044469,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.0675990675990676,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.024027254796485566,
          "win_uplift": 0.051713677604446895
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.85176,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.10266,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04558,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.9007530930607853,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.0755782678859602,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.023668639053254437,
          "win_uplift": 0.048993093060785364
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.86234,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.09608,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04158,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.9064012910166757,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.07037833960910884,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.023220369374215528,
          "win_uplift": 0.04406129101667566
        }
      ]
    },
    "Porto": {
      "target": "champion",
      "p_current": 0.4908,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38406,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27256,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.34338,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4860845116335928,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26359969031416813,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.25031579805223914,
          "win_uplift": 0.10202451163359277
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29112,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27162,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.43726,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3838066908438939,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27651684935414206,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.33967645980196404,
          "win_uplift": 0.09268669084389392
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.32996,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26974,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4003,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4199095391385844,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27187156187604417,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3082188989853714,
          "win_uplift": 0.08994953913858444
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.47646,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26728,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.25626,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5501405810684161,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.24571125870991403,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.20414816022166987,
          "win_uplift": 0.07368058106841613
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.63072,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.23806,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.13122,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6968338698504544,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.20528910802330794,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.09787702212623772,
          "win_uplift": 0.06611386985045442
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.57854,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.23764,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.18382,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6443502709751029,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.21176806161118128,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.14388166741371583,
          "win_uplift": 0.06581027097510284
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.61952,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.23232,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.14816,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6820830447007049,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2040259158143515,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.11389103948494356,
          "win_uplift": 0.06256304470070495
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.65342,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.21872,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.12786,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7156187604417098,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.18833788354182796,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.09604335601646224,
          "win_uplift": 0.0621987604417098
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6789,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.19882,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.12228,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7399861456338372,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.16971598549366365,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.09029786887249908,
          "win_uplift": 0.0610861456338373
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.62926,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.22596,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.14478,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6901104274479443,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.19881015443543457,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.11107941811662117,
          "win_uplift": 0.06085042744794422
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.70854,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.19222,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.09924,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7674503891446967,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.16144411393178762,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07110549692351575,
          "win_uplift": 0.058910389144696707
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6769,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.20428,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.11882,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7341184140825557,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.17717289434008393,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.08870869157736033,
          "win_uplift": 0.05721841408255579
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.71622,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18836,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.09542,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.773358868831751,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15810276679841898,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.06853836436983007,
          "win_uplift": 0.05713886883175101
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7084,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18744,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.10416,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7635793162462817,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15997718104396724,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07644350270975103,
          "win_uplift": 0.055179316246281696
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.73398,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18066,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08536,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7881096939815003,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15044211727313475,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0614481887453649,
          "win_uplift": 0.05412969398150036
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.75398,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.16176,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08426,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8065278513508007,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.13381687787783708,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.059655270771362214,
          "win_uplift": 0.052547851350800756
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7451,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17246,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08244,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.797237276394605,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.14257772706898658,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.06018499653640846,
          "win_uplift": 0.05213727639460497
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.76806,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15424,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.0777,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8200154842915937,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12521902122977874,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0547654944786276,
          "win_uplift": 0.05195548429159369
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7493,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17146,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.07924,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8003748828491096,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1428629640193961,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.056762153131494235,
          "win_uplift": 0.05107488284910966
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.71868,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.19594,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08538,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7679801149097428,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1675563342977059,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.06446355079255124,
          "win_uplift": 0.04930011490974284
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.81962,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13024,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.05014,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8587262132757426,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10680086386047838,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03447292286377898,
          "win_uplift": 0.039106213275742596
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.83136,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11976,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04888,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8700949431563506,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.09685831873191801,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03304673811173139,
          "win_uplift": 0.03873494315635062
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.83662,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11962,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04376,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8733547940181736,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.09465791940018745,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.031987286581638893,
          "win_uplift": 0.03673479401817359
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.81986,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12532,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.05482,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8554663624139196,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10614889368811377,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.038384743897966665,
          "win_uplift": 0.03560636241391957
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.84314,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11314,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04372,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8780408296320443,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.08997188378631678,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.031987286581638893,
          "win_uplift": 0.03490082963204433
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.8472,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11176,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04104,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8817896581231409,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.08976814310745283,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0284421987694063,
          "win_uplift": 0.034589658123140965
        }
      ]
    },
    "Sporting CP": {
      "target": "champion",
      "p_current": 0.2851,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43726,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27162,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.29112,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5940239882163147,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.24486217296766502,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.1611138388160202,
          "win_uplift": 0.15676398821631476
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34338,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27256,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38406,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49540576558883354,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2683594023988216,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.23623483201234483,
          "win_uplift": 0.15202576558883352
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.47074,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2445,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.28476,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6141544504453953,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.21126464193027986,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.1745809076243249,
          "win_uplift": 0.1434144504453953
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.36594,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25238,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38168,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49982464754155853,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.24079399593182296,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2593813565266185,
          "win_uplift": 0.13388464754155854
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.62802,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.20794,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.16404,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7225924107455987,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.17072315353861262,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.10668443571578874,
          "win_uplift": 0.09457241074559863
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.66834,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.20288,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.12878,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7570316335835029,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.16363891421757734,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07932945219891983,
          "win_uplift": 0.08869163358350285
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.68022,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.20592,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.11386,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7670617942063548,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.162165953566669,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07077225222697622,
          "win_uplift": 0.08684179420635474
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.72878,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.168,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.10322,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8063407448972435,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12933997334642633,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.06431928175633023,
          "win_uplift": 0.07756074489724352
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.70472,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18884,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.10644,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7810198498982955,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.14869888475836432,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.07028126534334012,
          "win_uplift": 0.07629984989829552
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7225,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17384,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.10366,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7965210072245212,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.13845830118538263,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.06502069159009609,
          "win_uplift": 0.07402100722452121
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.76606,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15478,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.07916,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.83579995791541,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11741600617240654,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.04678403591218349,
          "win_uplift": 0.06973995791540999
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.75378,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15768,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.08854,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.820158518622431,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12344813074279301,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0563933506347759,
          "win_uplift": 0.06637851862243105
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7658,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.1623,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.0719,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8312407939959319,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12120361927474223,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.047555586729325944,
          "win_uplift": 0.06544079399593183
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7804,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.14662,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.07298,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8414813775689135,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11348811110331766,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.045030511327768814,
          "win_uplift": 0.06108137756891352
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.78874,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.14292,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.06834,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8473732201725468,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11019148488461808,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0424352949428351,
          "win_uplift": 0.058633220172546796
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.80994,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12778,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.06228,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8662411447008487,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.09518131444202847,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03857754085712282,
          "win_uplift": 0.05630114470084868
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.80806,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13192,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.06002,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.864136915199551,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.09974047836150662,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03612260643894227,
          "win_uplift": 0.05607691519955105
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.8022,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13174,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.06606,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8576138037455285,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10009118327838956,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.042295012976081924,
          "win_uplift": 0.05541380374552851
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.81426,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12696,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.05878,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8693273479694186,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.09770638984358561,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03296626218699586,
          "win_uplift": 0.05506734796941859
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.81396,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12896,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.05708,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8681349512520166,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.09679455705968998,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.03507049168829347,
          "win_uplift": 0.054174951252016545
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.85126,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.1066,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04214,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.899137265904468,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.07617310794697342,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.024689626148558602,
          "win_uplift": 0.04787726590446795
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.8625,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.0994,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.0381,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.9048186855579715,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.07126323911061233,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.023918075331416145,
          "win_uplift": 0.04231868555797147
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.85766,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.10026,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.04208,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.8998386757382338,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.0740688784456758,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.02609244581609034,
          "win_uplift": 0.04217867573823386
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.87482,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.09234,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.03284,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.9162516658483552,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.0649505506067195,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0187977835449253,
          "win_uplift": 0.041431665848355115
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.88118,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.08556,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.03326,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.9188468822332889,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.06095251455425405,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.02020060321245704,
          "win_uplift": 0.037666882233288956
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.87972,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.08712,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.03316,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.9167426527319913,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.06291646208879849,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.020340885179210212,
          "win_uplift": 0.037022652731991346
        }
      ]
    },
    "Academico Viseu": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.942,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.41006,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27758,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31236,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.42282705617595856,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2768884548426818,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3002844889813596,
          "win_uplift": 0.01276705617595858
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38328,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27276,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.34396,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3959916776357692,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2727272727272727,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3312810496369581,
          "win_uplift": 0.012711677635769192
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.401,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28596,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31304,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.41306101651734534,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2857203515774277,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.30121863190522696,
          "win_uplift": 0.012061016517345313
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35518,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27256,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37226,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3668634028279054,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.272302662307333,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.36083393486476156,
          "win_uplift": 0.01168340282790542
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31206,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28348,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.40446,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3236168315570464,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28495605282153624,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.39142711562141735,
          "win_uplift": 0.011556831557046399
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37806,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28712,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.33482,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3896012908156766,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28656957241730713,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.32382913676701625,
          "win_uplift": 0.01154129081567662
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37502,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28614,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.33884,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3858859496412042,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2855929684514458,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.32852108190735,
          "win_uplift": 0.010865949641204187
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.32848,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27286,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.39866,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.33900895927986074,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27211158761836013,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3888794531017791,
          "win_uplift": 0.01052895927986075
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29266,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27018,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.43716,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3031718398369496,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27179312980340536,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.425035030359645,
          "win_uplift": 0.010511839836949644
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3045,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27244,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.42306,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3143178633603669,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27313065262621544,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4125514840134177,
          "win_uplift": 0.009817863360366885
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28472,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28406,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.43122,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.29431871258120673,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2848923612585453,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.420788926160248,
          "win_uplift": 0.009598712581206759
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2672,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2605,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4723,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.27656999702772705,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2624304700437349,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.46099953292853807,
          "win_uplift": 0.009369997027727062
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29244,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.286,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.42156,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.30153708972018173,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2869092607532589,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4115536495265594,
          "win_uplift": 0.00909708972018175
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.26374,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27616,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4601,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2726211201222878,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2772493736996306,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4501295061780816,
          "win_uplift": 0.008881120122287811
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2412,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26088,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.49792,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.249267547025604,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2619633985818012,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.48876905439259477,
          "win_uplift": 0.008067547025604
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.21606,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2434,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.54054,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2237909218292217,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.24563712793511952,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5305719502356587,
          "win_uplift": 0.007730921829221693
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.21982,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25722,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.52296,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.22733641883571823,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25945819710415696,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5132053840601248,
          "win_uplift": 0.0075164188357182415
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.21138,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28016,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.50846,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2185682136639633,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2822810071759161,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4991507791601206,
          "win_uplift": 0.0071882136639633
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.1933,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25034,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.55636,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.20039488769054392,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25255827778013673,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5470468345293193,
          "win_uplift": 0.007094887690543922
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.18622,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.24922,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.56456,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.19283682221561718,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2516029043352724,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5555602734491104,
          "win_uplift": 0.006616822215617185
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.14518,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.21288,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.64194,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.15060931595261348,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2145556451955331,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6348350388518534,
          "win_uplift": 0.005429315952613478
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.09592,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.1723,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.73178,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.09965606555984884,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1744936520742219,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7258502823659293,
          "win_uplift": 0.0037360655598488307
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.06958,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13762,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.7928,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.07224746295274086,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1402063606640907,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7875461763831685,
          "win_uplift": 0.002667462952740854
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.05878,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12696,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.81426,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.061186361513311534,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12840219098976688,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8104114474969216,
          "win_uplift": 0.002406361513311535
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04372,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11314,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.84314,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.04549700649653943,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11496327119867522,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8395397223047854,
          "win_uplift": 0.0017770064965394253
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.03326,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.08556,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.88118,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.034584518704089,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.0871725192136215,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8782429620822895,
          "win_uplift": 0.0013245187040889991
        }
      ]
    },
    "Casa Pia": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.4741,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40478,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.287,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.30822,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49791165675230986,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2686579757836561,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2334303674640341,
          "win_uplift": 0.09313165675230989
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37708,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28216,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.34076,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4665654136607181,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2677720119816057,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.26566257435767626,
          "win_uplift": 0.08948541366071805
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35654,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27686,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3666,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.44019744336159977,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26637978314981225,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2934227734885879,
          "win_uplift": 0.08365744336159975
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40446,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28348,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31206,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.48664725984052654,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26515630932793316,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2481964308315403,
          "win_uplift": 0.08218725984052655
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37778,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29008,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.33214,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.459899590769101,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27853014386364594,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2615702653672531,
          "win_uplift": 0.08211959076910097
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28586,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27342,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.44072,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.36611399400919714,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27372062608108677,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3601653799097161,
          "win_uplift": 0.08025399400919714
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2802,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29236,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.42744,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3569168459688647,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2883601231911572,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3547230308399781,
          "win_uplift": 0.07671684596886469
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29312,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27222,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.43466,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.36953128295996285,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27102054592245706,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.35944817111758004,
          "win_uplift": 0.07641128295996286
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3275,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28114,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.39136,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4023963211407839,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27456440113065855,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.32303927772855756,
          "win_uplift": 0.07489632114078387
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.26852,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2683,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.46318,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.342614858878623,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2676876344766485,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3896975066447285,
          "win_uplift": 0.074094858878623
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31304,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28596,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.401,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.38678648272370586,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2798801839429608,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3333333333333333,
          "win_uplift": 0.07374648272370588
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29182,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28718,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.421,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.36539678521706115,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2815255452896258,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3530776694933131,
          "win_uplift": 0.07357678521706112
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2923,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29182,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.41588,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3616419862464667,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28232713158671896,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.35603088216681433,
          "win_uplift": 0.0693419862464667
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2983,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28478,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.41692,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3661561827616757,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2788676538834747,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3549761633548496,
          "win_uplift": 0.06785618276167571
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.26162,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2791,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.45928,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3291988355904316,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2780238788339029,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.39277728557566555,
          "win_uplift": 0.0675788355904316
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2586,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28258,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.45882,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.322997088976079,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2779395013289457,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.39906340969497534,
          "win_uplift": 0.06439708897607899
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.22158,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26768,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.51074,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.28317090663629074,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2701767708728853,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4466523224908239,
          "win_uplift": 0.06159090663629074
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2442,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2636,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4922,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.30396996160823525,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26692823693203394,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4291018014597308,
          "win_uplift": 0.05976996160823525
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.21278,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28582,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.5014,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2681938995063916,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28869763321098596,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.44310846728262243,
          "win_uplift": 0.05541389950639161
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.19394,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2564,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.54966,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.24486351938573175,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26203434164451755,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4931021389697507,
          "win_uplift": 0.05092351938573175
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.14866,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.22204,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.6293,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.19149474750031642,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.23174281736489052,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5767624351347931,
          "win_uplift": 0.042834747500316434
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.0985,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17682,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.72468,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.12943509260431169,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.18989157490613004,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6806733324895583,
          "win_uplift": 0.03093509260431168
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.06002,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13192,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.80806,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.08062270598658397,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1458043285660043,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7735729654474117,
          "win_uplift": 0.020602705986583973
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04298,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.10036,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.85666,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.05990802851959667,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11192676032569716,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8281652111547062,
          "win_uplift": 0.016928028519596676
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04376,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11962,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.83662,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.05649073956883095,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1355946504661857,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8079146099649833,
          "win_uplift": 0.012730739568830952
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.03284,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.09234,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.87482,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.043960680082689954,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10234991351305742,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8536894064042526,
          "win_uplift": 0.011120680082689953
        }
      ]
    },
    "Estoril": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.8241,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.51984,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2447,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.23546,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.553851380866864,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.23700431975925837,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2091442993738776,
          "win_uplift": 0.03401138086686406
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.54918,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.24262,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.2082,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5830461583264573,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.23224773091297385,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.18470611076056884,
          "win_uplift": 0.03386615832645734
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4409,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26632,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.29278,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.47340193175751105,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2612726301994855,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.26532543804300346,
          "win_uplift": 0.03250193175751104
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43466,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27222,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.29312,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.46650973159248654,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26826190360627095,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2652283648012425,
          "win_uplift": 0.03184973159248655
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.54054,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2434,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.21606,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5719798087657137,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.23353395136630586,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.1944862398679804,
          "win_uplift": 0.03143980876571373
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.50142,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25844,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.24014,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5319856331602194,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25175945250691645,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.21625491433286415,
          "win_uplift": 0.03056563316021943
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38992,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26018,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3499,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4197204290637286,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25731689559772847,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.32296267533854295,
          "win_uplift": 0.029800429063728595
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40512,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27248,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3224,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.43469397660534875,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26925690433432026,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.29604911906033105,
          "win_uplift": 0.029573976605348773
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.5122,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25498,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.23282,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5413289326797068,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2491870116002524,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.20948405572004078,
          "win_uplift": 0.029128932679706843
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4148,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2714,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3138,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4437945930204339,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26576226763092753,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2904431393486385,
          "win_uplift": 0.02899459302043389
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40442,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28162,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31396,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.43255836528660874,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27697422705431246,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2904674076590788,
          "win_uplift": 0.028138365286608735
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3964,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29026,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31334,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.42447701791001313,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2847886230160656,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.29073435907392126,
          "win_uplift": 0.028077017910013158
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.42446,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26748,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.30806,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.45187594039702955,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26345677813910595,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2846672814638645,
          "win_uplift": 0.027415940397029548
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37328,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26942,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3573,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.40049992719506866,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26709702470514,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.33240304809979127,
          "win_uplift": 0.02721992719506866
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35908,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2629,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37802,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.385574916274329,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2600106780565937,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.35441440566907734,
          "win_uplift": 0.026494916274328983
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31726,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27738,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.40536,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.342522933553366,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27624617774110566,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.38123088870552835,
          "win_uplift": 0.025262933553366007
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33034,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26878,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.40088,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3554822113284473,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26554385283696547,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3789739358345872,
          "win_uplift": 0.025142211328447295
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3104,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2904,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3992,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3344658544872106,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28876862592826286,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.37676551958452653,
          "win_uplift": 0.024065854487210603
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28214,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26532,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.45254,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.30609619958258505,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2668058049798573,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.42709799543755766,
          "win_uplift": 0.023956199582585047
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28534,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26882,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.44584,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.30893559190409164,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26809202543318933,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.422972382662719,
          "win_uplift": 0.023595591904091662
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2328,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.24132,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.52588,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.25353103916905306,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.24336261709459786,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5031063437363491,
          "win_uplift": 0.020731039169053056
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.12502,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18138,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.6936,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.1370188807455225,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.18514294034849293,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6778381789059845,
          "win_uplift": 0.011998880745522494
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.12228,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.19882,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.6789,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.13405814687181478,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.20385380769790806,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6620880454302771,
          "win_uplift": 0.011778146871814776
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.10322,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.168,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.72878,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.11267776537397467,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.17310585837014028,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7142163762558851,
          "win_uplift": 0.009457765373974664
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.0777,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15424,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.76806,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.08520603795563753,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15859340872688443,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.756200553317478,
          "win_uplift": 0.007506037955637521
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.06228,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12778,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.80994,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.06858224530408193,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1318254623113139,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7995922923846042,
          "win_uplift": 0.006302245304081924
        }
      ]
    },
    "Estrela Amadora": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.878,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.39938,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.32062,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4238400036445639,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27798911186533337,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2981708844901027,
          "win_uplift": 0.02446000364456391
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.421,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28718,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.29182,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4453884877337646,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28295483018610057,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2716566820801348,
          "win_uplift": 0.02438848773376462
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.42866,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28064,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.2907,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4527459511172866,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2772829776087105,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2699710712740029,
          "win_uplift": 0.02408595111728662
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38066,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2739,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.34544,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.403589895446573,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2720666955194643,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3243434090339628,
          "win_uplift": 0.02292989544657298
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33214,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29008,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37778,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.35472996059315276,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2897883875082572,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.35548165189859,
          "win_uplift": 0.02258996059315277
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.39286,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2895,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31764,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.41466025830846676,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28721441425024485,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.29812532744128833,
          "win_uplift": 0.02180025830846677
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33486,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.283,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38214,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.35575499419147627,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28288649461287896,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.36135851119564477,
          "win_uplift": 0.02089499419147628
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33482,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28712,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37806,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.35482107469078156,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2863032732739573,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3588756520352612,
          "win_uplift": 0.02000107469078155
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3472,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2812,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3716,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3668253570533701,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2807453133186032,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3524293296280267,
          "win_uplift": 0.019625357053370096
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.30266,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29288,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.40446,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3212683082389923,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2938201863283296,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.38491150543267805,
          "win_uplift": 0.018608308238992288
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31814,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28288,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.39898,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3366893692626592,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2818614610145555,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.38144916972278536,
          "win_uplift": 0.01854936926265921
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31134,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28988,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.39878,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3296280266964306,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.29097287077743106,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.37939910252613834,
          "win_uplift": 0.018288026696430593
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3138,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2714,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4148,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.33181476503952073,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27163390355572764,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3965513314047516,
          "win_uplift": 0.018014765039520708
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.27742,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28462,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.43796,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2943213138652878,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2845037698457894,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4211749162889228,
          "win_uplift": 0.016901313865287815
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3027,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.306,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3913,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.31946880481082435,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.30776064326552927,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3727705519236464,
          "win_uplift": 0.016768804810824323
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.23282,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25498,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.5122,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2489920502949819,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2577845607161568,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4932233889888613,
          "win_uplift": 0.016172050294981893
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2312,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.277,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4918,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.24634974146374797,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2785130179266987,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4751372406095533,
          "win_uplift": 0.015149741463747979
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2279,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29056,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.48154,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.24224960707045398,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2931823876449284,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.46456800528461767,
          "win_uplift": 0.01434960707045399
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.20754,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26032,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.53214,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.22108835789617548,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2630008428054031,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5159107992984214,
          "win_uplift": 0.013548357896175478
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.19976,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26366,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.53658,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.21250085419466527,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2664176214664814,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5210815243388534,
          "win_uplift": 0.01274085419466528
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.10794,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18864,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.70342,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.1151454408783399,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.19293410172889,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6919204573927701,
          "win_uplift": 0.007205440878339908
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.08026,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15284,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.7669,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.08633060750324593,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15687569759230996,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.756793694904444,
          "win_uplift": 0.006070607503245937
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.07924,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17146,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.7493,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.08523723833170087,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.17621466481401335,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7385480968542858,
          "win_uplift": 0.005997238331700863
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.05014,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13024,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.81962,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.054714015626067744,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.13414273023393544,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8111432541399968,
          "win_uplift": 0.004574015626067747
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04646,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.1126,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.84094,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.04997608254937245,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11621603152547778,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8338078859251498,
          "win_uplift": 0.003516082549372447
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.0381,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.0994,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.8625,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.0412519077014191,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10252613835675725,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8562219539418237,
          "win_uplift": 0.003151907701419099
        }
      ]
    },
    "Maritimo": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.6909,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3788,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27474,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.34646,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4351677619199259,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27059027878296615,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.29424195929710795,
          "win_uplift": 0.056367761919925874
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3552,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26698,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37782,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.40607358943924965,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26239759140781055,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3315288191529398,
          "win_uplift": 0.050873589439249634
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3637,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28718,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.34912,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4142952262397591,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.281822655820282,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3038821179399589,
          "win_uplift": 0.050595226239759095
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38214,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.283,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.33486,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4309411458182555,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27907246041166084,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2899863937700837,
          "win_uplift": 0.04880114581825551
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.30822,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.287,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.40478,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3569753640390238,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28949425353906727,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.35353038242190893,
          "win_uplift": 0.04875536403902381
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28958,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27108,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.43934,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3369134122687665,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.273745766146542,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3893408215846915,
          "win_uplift": 0.04733341226876647
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31236,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27758,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.41006,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3572069594418551,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2755695799438381,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.36722346061430683,
          "win_uplift": 0.04484695944185507
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2907,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28064,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.42866,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3352343455982399,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.282749037431607,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.38201661697015316,
          "win_uplift": 0.04453434559823988
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29278,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26632,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4409,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.337058159395536,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2697507454477029,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.39319109515676115,
          "win_uplift": 0.04427815939553603
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2676,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25836,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.47404,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3104536374952957,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2626002373852879,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4269461251194164,
          "win_uplift": 0.04285363749529569
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29662,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2776,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.42578,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3391135685956634,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27661175925657877,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.38427467214775785,
          "win_uplift": 0.04249356859566339
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.32264,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27566,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4017,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3650522537127638,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27481689488463656,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.36013085140259965,
          "win_uplift": 0.0424122537127638
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28796,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28604,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.426,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3297629042063515,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2866861592797383,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3835509365139102,
          "win_uplift": 0.04180290420635152
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2082,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.24262,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.54918,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.24688069941811655,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.24902295689430565,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5040963436875778,
          "win_uplift": 0.038680699418116554
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.25922,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27534,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.46544,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2978895868917002,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2771038994875952,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.42500651362070463,
          "win_uplift": 0.03866958689170019
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2808,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.30102,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.41818,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.31910951567611384,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.30382421908925106,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3770662652346351,
          "win_uplift": 0.03830951567611385
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.25788,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27476,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.46736,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2949077960802478,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2764091132791014,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4286830906406508,
          "win_uplift": 0.03702779608024781
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.22,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25546,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.52454,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.25391540977911586,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2595605477231277,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.48652404249775644,
          "win_uplift": 0.03391540977911586
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2072,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27862,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.51418,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2393827982514547,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2849781431838578,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.47563905856468747,
          "win_uplift": 0.0321827982514547
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.18524,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.24694,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.56782,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.21680224647540747,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2551891844946878,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5280085690299048,
          "win_uplift": 0.03156224647540748
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.14652,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.21316,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.64032,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.17068581188663404,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.22224473844194192,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6070694496714241,
          "win_uplift": 0.024165811886634025
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.0932,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17006,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.73674,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.11186057956749558,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.17939958891815996,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7087398315143444,
          "win_uplift": 0.018660579567495575
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.05708,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12896,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.81396,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.06837854268592769,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.13875459572127494,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7928668615927974,
          "win_uplift": 0.011298542685927691
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04158,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.09608,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.86234,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.049966708160843004,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10378368989375561,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8462496019454013,
          "win_uplift": 0.008386708160843005
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04104,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11176,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.8472,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.04918507367628753,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12086385085256057,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8299510754711519,
          "win_uplift": 0.008145073676287529
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.03316,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.08712,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.87972,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.04026865066728425,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.0946935703326289,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8650377790000868,
          "win_uplift": 0.00710865066728425
        }
      ]
    },
    "Moreirense": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.8492,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.42744,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29236,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.2802,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4570547090271072,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2869692188125574,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.25597607216033536,
          "win_uplift": 0.029614709027107222
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4091,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27998,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31092,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.43797838016061796,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2762064011681308,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.28581521867125126,
          "win_uplift": 0.028878380160617945
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34912,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28718,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3637,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3769341277878524,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.285344198205412,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3377216740067356,
          "win_uplift": 0.027814127787852416
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43122,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28406,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.28472,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4583971173547491,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27837309531099125,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.26322978733425967,
          "win_uplift": 0.027177117354749092
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40446,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29288,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.30266,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4312663385224088,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2885942394197028,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2801394220578884,
          "win_uplift": 0.026806338522408824
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38716,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28148,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.33136,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4127787852382186,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2775252584724806,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.30969595628930074,
          "win_uplift": 0.02561878523821859
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3224,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27248,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.40512,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3474717976496079,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27234403334824897,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.38018416900214314,
          "win_uplift": 0.025071797649607874
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31634,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28244,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.40122,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3407597560113987,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28402534090106213,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.37521490308753913,
          "win_uplift": 0.024419756011398674
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35602,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28306,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.36092,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3797838016061798,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27950354442900543,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.34071265396481476,
          "win_uplift": 0.023763801606179802
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31764,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2895,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.39286,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.341183674430654,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2895833823979652,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3692329431713808,
          "win_uplift": 0.023543674430654027
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33276,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28186,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38538,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.35536139045241516,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2805868915004357,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.36405171804714914,
          "win_uplift": 0.02260139045241516
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33884,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28614,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37502,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.36122559525211373,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2846141164833612,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3541602882645251,
          "win_uplift": 0.022385595252113755
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2929,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27568,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.43142,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3150184875532842,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2777843197286922,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.40719719271802357,
          "win_uplift": 0.022118487553284216
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.30804,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.31304,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37892,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3298320812039283,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.3096017521961329,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3605661665999388,
          "win_uplift": 0.021792081203928337
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28988,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2913,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.41882,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3106144461976873,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2891594639787099,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.40022608982360286,
          "win_uplift": 0.020734446197687273
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.24014,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25844,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.50142,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2600739502131368,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25939097053766985,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.48053507924919336,
          "win_uplift": 0.019933950213136792
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.24918,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26744,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.48338,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2684345634817833,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2693530533901698,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4622123831280469,
          "win_uplift": 0.019254563481783282
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28308,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29188,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.42504,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.30201832269612117,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2927627705423801,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4052189067614988,
          "win_uplift": 0.018938322696121168
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.21706,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2676,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.51534,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.235109865523657,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2699182779491769,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.49497185652716613,
          "win_uplift": 0.018049865523657005
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.23752,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2833,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.47918,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.25524599043828455,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.28557970843833164,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4591743011233838,
          "win_uplift": 0.017725990438284545
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.23522,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29946,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.46532,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.252490520713125,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.3018063634864935,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4457031158003815,
          "win_uplift": 0.017270520713124987
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.11408,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.19658,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.68934,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.12449070912131133,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.20183226961211465,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.673677021266574,
          "win_uplift": 0.010410709121311326
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.08536,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18066,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.73398,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.09307364404983397,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1858646758201644,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7210616801300016,
          "win_uplift": 0.007713644049833962
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.07298,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.14662,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.7804,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.07981441793645934,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15162148795365157,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7685640941098891,
          "win_uplift": 0.006834417936459336
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.05194,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11842,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.82964,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.05656955794729281,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12310119874708556,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8203292433056216,
          "win_uplift": 0.004629557947292813
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04214,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.1066,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.85126,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.0460893525823697,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11068980947222157,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8432208379454087,
          "win_uplift": 0.003949352582369704
        }
      ]
    },
    "Nacional": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.5714,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.44072,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27342,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.28586,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5173946521069579,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2577698446031079,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2248355032899342,
          "win_uplift": 0.0766746521069579
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43934,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27108,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.28958,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5133347333053339,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2565448691026179,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.23012039759204816,
          "win_uplift": 0.07399473330533385
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34646,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27474,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3788,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.41771664566708666,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26896962060758783,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3133137337253255,
          "win_uplift": 0.07125664566708667
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.39038,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26872,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3409,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4593658126837463,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25752484950300997,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2831093378132437,
          "win_uplift": 0.06898581268374632
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34076,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28216,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37708,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4088968220635587,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2765994680106398,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3145037099258015,
          "win_uplift": 0.0681368220635587
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43716,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27018,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.29266,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5052498950020999,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25391992160156795,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.24083018339633208,
          "win_uplift": 0.06808989500209994
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40122,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28244,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.31634,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.46773064538709225,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2739045219095618,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2583648327033459,
          "win_uplift": 0.06651064538709223
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.32062,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.39938,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3856572868542629,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27481450370992583,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3395282094358113,
          "win_uplift": 0.06503728685426291
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34396,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27276,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38328,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.40644687106257876,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26662466750664987,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.32692846143077137,
          "win_uplift": 0.062486871062578775
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35852,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2722,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.36928,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.42062158756824863,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2617247655046899,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.31765364692706144,
          "win_uplift": 0.06210158756824863
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31092,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27998,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4091,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.372357552848943,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27733445331093376,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3503079938401232,
          "win_uplift": 0.06143755284894303
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.283,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27128,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.44572,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3396682066358673,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26977460450790985,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.39055718885622287,
          "win_uplift": 0.0566682066358673
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.23546,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2447,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.51984,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2915791684166317,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.250104997900042,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.45831583368332635,
          "win_uplift": 0.05611916841663167
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3199,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.282,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3981,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.375962480750385,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2768794624107518,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.34715805683886325,
          "win_uplift": 0.056062480750385
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.30836,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.30014,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3915,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3602477950440991,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2965490690186196,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.34320313593728125,
          "win_uplift": 0.05188779504409907
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.26592,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26182,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.47226,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.31765364692706144,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2626347473050539,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.41971160576788463,
          "win_uplift": 0.05173364692706145
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2454,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2567,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4979,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2970740585188296,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25752484950300997,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4454010919781604,
          "win_uplift": 0.05167405851882961
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2378,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2666,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.4956,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2845793084138317,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2718045639087218,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.44361612767744646,
          "win_uplift": 0.04677930841383171
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.21182,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25502,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.53316,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.25769984600307994,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2625997480050399,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4797004059918802,
          "win_uplift": 0.04587984600307993
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.16642,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.21702,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.61656,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.20243595128097439,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2252554948901022,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5723085538289234,
          "win_uplift": 0.03601595128097437
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.10598,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.17878,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.71524,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.13075738485230295,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1900811983760325,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6791614167716645,
          "win_uplift": 0.02477738485230295
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.08426,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.16176,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.75398,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.10573288534229315,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1738415231695366,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7204255914881702,
          "win_uplift": 0.02147288534229315
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.08272,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.14444,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.77284,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.10202295954080919,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15700685986280274,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7409701805963881,
          "win_uplift": 0.019302959540809184
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.06606,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.13174,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.8022,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.08284334313313733,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.14234215315693685,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7748145037099258,
          "win_uplift": 0.01678334313313734
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04888,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11976,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.83136,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.061738765224695506,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.13180736385272296,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8064538709225816,
          "win_uplift": 0.012858765224695506
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04558,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.10266,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.85176,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.05785384292314154,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11178776424471511,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8303583928321434,
          "win_uplift": 0.012273842923141536
        }
      ]
    },
    "Rio Ave": {
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.855,
      "matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.47404,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25836,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.2676,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5029825259070387,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25317551287749424,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.24384196121546703,
          "win_uplift": 0.02894252590703872
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.46318,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2683,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.26852,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4902804743970619,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26377225198250254,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.24594727362043556,
          "win_uplift": 0.027100474397061924
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4723,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2605,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.2672,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49898243233759854,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2534796135582119,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.24753795410418958,
          "win_uplift": 0.02668243233759854
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3666,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27686,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.35654,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3926875482467426,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27598306393132005,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3313293878219374,
          "win_uplift": 0.026087548246742642
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3499,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26018,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38992,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3757982642868839,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2599592972935039,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3642424384196122,
          "win_uplift": 0.02589826428688391
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3409,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26872,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.39038,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.36618400430419423,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26873143231420615,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.36508456338159956,
          "win_uplift": 0.025284004304194252
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43142,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27568,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.2929,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.45668904535778615,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2731058036445297,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.27020515099768416,
          "win_uplift": 0.025269045357786124
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37782,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26698,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3552,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.40262930127020513,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26543310954642213,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3319375891833727,
          "win_uplift": 0.024809301270205142
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37226,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27256,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.35518,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3969917424969005,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.26971391143652484,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.33329434606657465,
          "win_uplift": 0.02473174249690052
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34544,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2739,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38066,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.36929518819153667,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2723338557627079,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3583709560457555,
          "win_uplift": 0.023855188191536647
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38558,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.26612,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.3483,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.408968630845166,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2628599499403495,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.32817141921448456,
          "win_uplift": 0.023388630845166014
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33136,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.28148,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.38716,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.354113546515708,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2814802685442934,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3644061849399986,
          "win_uplift": 0.02275354651570799
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34794,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2777,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37436,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.37055837563451777,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2767550118131418,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3526866125523404,
          "win_uplift": 0.02261837563451774
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 22,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33466,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.29336,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37198,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.35675688320194626,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.29055650424571333,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3526866125523404,
          "win_uplift": 0.02209688320194625
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.30986,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27282,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.41732,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.33144634962221337,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27139816136049966,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.397155489017287,
          "win_uplift": 0.02158634962221334
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Alverca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35516,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27216,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.37268,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.37647664272848486,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2716788696811621,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.351844487590353,
          "win_uplift": 0.02131664272848488
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31364,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.27252,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.41384,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3343236099090037,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.27301223420430887,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3926641558866874,
          "win_uplift": 0.020683609909003753
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28944,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2623,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.44826,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.309480923530375,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2629769117406255,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.42754216472899953,
          "win_uplift": 0.02004092353037501
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.23086,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.25754,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.5116,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2489181033474467,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2598189431331727,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.4912629535193806,
          "win_uplift": 0.018058103347446702
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.22426,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2544,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.52134,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.2405904231677934,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.25764345364803853,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.501766123184168,
          "win_uplift": 0.0163304231677934
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.18262,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.2237,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.59368,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.19647243210367493,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.22711642377599475,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.5764111441203303,
          "win_uplift": 0.013852432103674928
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.12058,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.18908,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.69034,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.13029544550749725,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.19371213361716064,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.6759924208753421,
          "win_uplift": 0.009715445507497242
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.09086,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.15208,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.75706,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.09901986011368687,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.15495099300568435,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.7460291468806288,
          "win_uplift": 0.00815986011368687
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.0554,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.11,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.8346,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.0603522889424314,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.11422489414957075,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8254228169079979,
          "win_uplift": 0.004952288942431403
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.05482,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.12532,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.81986,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.05962712578072002,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.12989777538655875,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8104750988327213,
          "win_uplift": 0.004807125780720019
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.04208,
          "p_draw_overall": 0.10026,
          "p_loss_overall": 0.85766,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.0458490257082037,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.10327726964373436,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.8508737046480619,
          "win_uplift": 0.0037690257082036993
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "victory_paths": {
    "Benfica": {
      "target": "champion",
      "n_target": 11154,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.2231,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4003,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5796126949973104,
          "win_uplift": 0.1793126949973104,
          "remaining_sims": 6465,
          "pct_of_target": 0.5796
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38168,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.544826967903891,
          "win_uplift": 0.16314696790389094,
          "remaining_sims": 3430,
          "pct_of_target": 0.3075
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.28476,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4282768513537744,
          "win_uplift": 0.1435168513537744,
          "remaining_sims": 1340,
          "pct_of_target": 0.1201
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.48294,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6074950690335306,
          "win_uplift": 0.12455506903353059,
          "remaining_sims": 755,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0677
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.59006,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6967007351622736,
          "win_uplift": 0.10664073516227357,
          "remaining_sims": 504,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0452
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": [
        {
          "rival": "Porto",
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.67,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.824,
          "drop_uplift": 0.154
        },
        {
          "rival": "Porto",
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5235,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.5962,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0727
        },
        {
          "rival": "Porto",
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.3693,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.4353,
          "drop_uplift": 0.066
        },
        {
          "rival": "Sporting CP",
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5293,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6819,
          "drop_uplift": 0.1526
        },
        {
          "rival": "Sporting CP",
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6341,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.781,
          "drop_uplift": 0.1469
        },
        {
          "rival": "Sporting CP",
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.2712,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.3103,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0391
        }
      ]
    },
    "Porto": {
      "target": "champion",
      "n_target": 24541,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.4908,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38406,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4860845116335928,
          "win_uplift": 0.10202451163359277,
          "remaining_sims": 11929,
          "pct_of_target": 0.4861
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.29112,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3838066908438939,
          "win_uplift": 0.09268669084389392,
          "remaining_sims": 4285,
          "pct_of_target": 0.1746
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.32996,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4199095391385844,
          "win_uplift": 0.08994953913858444,
          "remaining_sims": 1678,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0684
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.47646,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5501405810684161,
          "win_uplift": 0.07368058106841613,
          "remaining_sims": 836,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0341
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.63072,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6968338698504544,
          "win_uplift": 0.06611386985045442,
          "remaining_sims": 560,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0228
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": [
        {
          "rival": "Sporting CP",
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5627,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6603,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0976
        },
        {
          "rival": "Sporting CP",
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6566,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7497,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0931
        },
        {
          "rival": "Sporting CP",
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.372,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.4093,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0373
        },
        {
          "rival": "Benfica",
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5997,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6918,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0921
        },
        {
          "rival": "Benfica",
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5171,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.5489,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0319
        },
        {
          "rival": "Benfica",
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.3553,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.3861,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0308
        }
      ]
    },
    "Sporting CP": {
      "target": "champion",
      "n_target": 14257,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.2851,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43726,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5940239882163147,
          "win_uplift": 0.15676398821631476,
          "remaining_sims": 8469,
          "pct_of_target": 0.594
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34338,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49540576558883354,
          "win_uplift": 0.15202576558883352,
          "remaining_sims": 4022,
          "pct_of_target": 0.2821
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.47074,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.6141544504453953,
          "win_uplift": 0.1434144504453953,
          "remaining_sims": 2295,
          "pct_of_target": 0.161
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.36594,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49982464754155853,
          "win_uplift": 0.13388464754155854,
          "remaining_sims": 1006,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0706
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.62802,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7225924107455987,
          "win_uplift": 0.09457241074559863,
          "remaining_sims": 658,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0462
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": [
        {
          "rival": "Porto",
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6159,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7638,
          "drop_uplift": 0.1478
        },
        {
          "rival": "Porto",
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.7089,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.8389,
          "drop_uplift": 0.13
        },
        {
          "rival": "Porto",
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5235,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.5926,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0691
        },
        {
          "rival": "Benfica",
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6183,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7406,
          "drop_uplift": 0.1223
        },
        {
          "rival": "Benfica",
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.7152,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.8254,
          "drop_uplift": 0.1102
        },
        {
          "rival": "Benfica",
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5171,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.5585,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0414
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "survival_paths": {
    "Academico Viseu": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 47102,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.942,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.41006,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.42282705617595856,
          "win_uplift": 0.01276705617595858,
          "remaining_sims": 19916,
          "pct_of_target": 0.4228
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38328,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3959916776357692,
          "win_uplift": 0.012711677635769192,
          "remaining_sims": 7759,
          "pct_of_target": 0.1647
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.401,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.41306101651734534,
          "win_uplift": 0.012061016517345313,
          "remaining_sims": 3117,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0662
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35518,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3668634028279054,
          "win_uplift": 0.01168340282790542,
          "remaining_sims": 1154,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0245
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.31206,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3236168315570464,
          "win_uplift": 0.011556831557046399,
          "remaining_sims": 364,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0077
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": []
    },
    "Casa Pia": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 23703,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.4741,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40478,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49791165675230986,
          "win_uplift": 0.09313165675230989,
          "remaining_sims": 11802,
          "pct_of_target": 0.4979
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37708,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4665654136607181,
          "win_uplift": 0.08948541366071805,
          "remaining_sims": 5367,
          "pct_of_target": 0.2264
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.35654,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.44019744336159977,
          "win_uplift": 0.08365744336159975,
          "remaining_sims": 2254,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0951
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40446,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.48664725984052654,
          "win_uplift": 0.08218725984052655,
          "remaining_sims": 1007,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0425
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.37778,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.459899590769101,
          "win_uplift": 0.08211959076910097,
          "remaining_sims": 388,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0164
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": [
        {
          "rival": "Nacional",
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5593,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6398,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0806
        },
        {
          "rival": "Nacional",
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6592,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7343,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0751
        },
        {
          "rival": "Maritimo",
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6918,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7666,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0748
        }
      ]
    },
    "Estoril": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 41206,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.8241,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.51984,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.553851380866864,
          "win_uplift": 0.03401138086686406,
          "remaining_sims": 22822,
          "pct_of_target": 0.5539
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 11,
          "p_win_overall": 0.54918,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5830461583264573,
          "win_uplift": 0.03386615832645734,
          "remaining_sims": 13076,
          "pct_of_target": 0.3173
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4409,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.47340193175751105,
          "win_uplift": 0.03250193175751104,
          "remaining_sims": 6139,
          "pct_of_target": 0.149
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43466,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.46650973159248654,
          "win_uplift": 0.03184973159248655,
          "remaining_sims": 2692,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0653
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.54054,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5719798087657137,
          "win_uplift": 0.03143980876571373,
          "remaining_sims": 1492,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0362
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": []
    },
    "Estrela Amadora": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 43901,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.878,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.39938,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4238400036445639,
          "win_uplift": 0.02446000364456391,
          "remaining_sims": 18607,
          "pct_of_target": 0.4238
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.421,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4453884877337646,
          "win_uplift": 0.02438848773376462,
          "remaining_sims": 8206,
          "pct_of_target": 0.1869
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.42866,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4527459511172866,
          "win_uplift": 0.02408595111728662,
          "remaining_sims": 3646,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0831
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38066,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.403589895446573,
          "win_uplift": 0.02292989544657298,
          "remaining_sims": 1432,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33214,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.35472996059315276,
          "win_uplift": 0.02258996059315277,
          "remaining_sims": 460,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0105
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": []
    },
    "Maritimo": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 34543,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.6909,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3788,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4351677619199259,
          "win_uplift": 0.056367761919925874,
          "remaining_sims": 15032,
          "pct_of_target": 0.4352
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3552,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.40607358943924965,
          "win_uplift": 0.050873589439249634,
          "remaining_sims": 5913,
          "pct_of_target": 0.1712
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3637,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4142952262397591,
          "win_uplift": 0.050595226239759095,
          "remaining_sims": 2406,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0697
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.38214,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4309411458182555,
          "win_uplift": 0.04880114581825551,
          "remaining_sims": 953,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0276
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.30822,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3569753640390238,
          "win_uplift": 0.04875536403902381,
          "remaining_sims": 319,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0092
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": [
        {
          "rival": "Casa Pia",
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5952,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6465,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0512
        },
        {
          "rival": "Nacional",
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6535,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7058,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0522
        },
        {
          "rival": "Nacional",
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.5607,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6107,
          "drop_uplift": 0.05
        }
      ]
    },
    "Moreirense": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 42461,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.8492,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.42744,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4570547090271072,
          "win_uplift": 0.029614709027107222,
          "remaining_sims": 19407,
          "pct_of_target": 0.4571
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4091,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.43797838016061796,
          "win_uplift": 0.028878380160617945,
          "remaining_sims": 8295,
          "pct_of_target": 0.1954
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34912,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3769341277878524,
          "win_uplift": 0.027814127787852416,
          "remaining_sims": 3079,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0725
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43122,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4583971173547491,
          "win_uplift": 0.027177117354749092,
          "remaining_sims": 1335,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.40446,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4312663385224088,
          "win_uplift": 0.026806338522408824,
          "remaining_sims": 552,
          "pct_of_target": 0.013
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": []
    },
    "Nacional": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 28572,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.5714,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.44072,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5173946521069579,
          "win_uplift": 0.0766746521069579,
          "remaining_sims": 14783,
          "pct_of_target": 0.5174
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.43934,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5133347333053339,
          "win_uplift": 0.07399473330533385,
          "remaining_sims": 7371,
          "pct_of_target": 0.258
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34646,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.41771664566708666,
          "win_uplift": 0.07125664566708667,
          "remaining_sims": 2885,
          "pct_of_target": 0.101
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.39038,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4593658126837463,
          "win_uplift": 0.06898581268374632,
          "remaining_sims": 1203,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0421
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.34076,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4088968220635587,
          "win_uplift": 0.0681368220635587,
          "remaining_sims": 430,
          "pct_of_target": 0.015
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": [
        {
          "rival": "Casa Pia",
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6229,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6855,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0626
        },
        {
          "rival": "Casa Pia",
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.7141,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7752,
          "drop_uplift": 0.061
        },
        {
          "rival": "Maritimo",
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.6212,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.6867,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "rival": "Maritimo",
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_rival_drops_overall": 0.7104,
          "p_rival_drops_given_target": 0.7699,
          "drop_uplift": 0.0595
        }
      ]
    },
    "Rio Ave": {
      "target": "survival",
      "n_target": 42749,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "p_current": 0.855,
      "funnel": [
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.47404,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5029825259070387,
          "win_uplift": 0.02894252590703872,
          "remaining_sims": 21502,
          "pct_of_target": 0.503
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 13,
          "p_win_overall": 0.46318,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4902804743970619,
          "win_uplift": 0.027100474397061924,
          "remaining_sims": 10336,
          "pct_of_target": 0.2418
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4723,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.49898243233759854,
          "win_uplift": 0.02668243233759854,
          "remaining_sims": 5053,
          "pct_of_target": 0.1182
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3666,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3926875482467426,
          "win_uplift": 0.026087548246742642,
          "remaining_sims": 1918,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0449
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 20,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3499,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3757982642868839,
          "win_uplift": 0.02589826428688391,
          "remaining_sims": 689,
          "pct_of_target": 0.0161
        }
      ],
      "rival_conditions": []
    }
  },
  "narrative_scenarios": {
    "Benfica": {
      "team": "Benfica",
      "target": "champion",
      "p_current": 0.2231,
      "n_target": 11154,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.4487,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Santa Clara",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 9,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6447,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7435,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1744,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0821,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.8214,
          "team_swing": 0.1212
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6936,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7916,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1335,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.075,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.7385,
          "team_swing": 0.1208
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6724,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7738,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1502,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.076,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.7713,
          "team_swing": 0.1277
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2848,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4283,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2536,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3181,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9851,
          "team_swing": 0.1848
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "9": "W",
            "21": "W",
            "23": "W",
            "33": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.1786,
          "n_sims_matching": 1992,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 9,
              "opponent": "Santa Clara",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2231,
              "p_target_after": 0.2573,
              "n_sims_remaining": 32236
            },
            {
              "matchday": 21,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2573,
              "p_target_after": 0.2913,
              "n_sims_remaining": 22464
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2913,
              "p_target_after": 0.3293,
              "n_sims_remaining": 15198
            },
            {
              "matchday": 33,
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.3293,
              "p_target_after": 0.4577,
              "n_sims_remaining": 4352
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 33,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5293,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4707
            },
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.67,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7927,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1226
            },
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 16,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6341,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7405,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1064
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "9": "W",
            "21": "W",
            "23": "W",
            "33": "L"
          },
          "frequency": 0.1541,
          "n_sims_matching": 1719,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 9,
              "opponent": "Santa Clara",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2231,
              "p_target_after": 0.2573,
              "n_sims_remaining": 32236
            },
            {
              "matchday": 21,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2573,
              "p_target_after": 0.2913,
              "n_sims_remaining": 22464
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2913,
              "p_target_after": 0.3293,
              "n_sims_remaining": 15198
            },
            {
              "matchday": 33,
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.3293,
              "p_target_after": 0.2424,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7092
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 16,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6341,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7929,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1588
            },
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.67,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.8214,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1514
            },
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "SC Braga",
              "matchday": 17,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5235,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.591,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0675
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "9": "W",
            "21": "W",
            "23": "W",
            "33": "D"
          },
          "frequency": 0.116,
          "n_sims_matching": 1294,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 9,
              "opponent": "Santa Clara",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2231,
              "p_target_after": 0.2573,
              "n_sims_remaining": 32236
            },
            {
              "matchday": 21,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2573,
              "p_target_after": 0.2913,
              "n_sims_remaining": 22464
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2913,
              "p_target_after": 0.3293,
              "n_sims_remaining": 15198
            },
            {
              "matchday": 33,
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "D",
              "p_target_before": 0.3293,
              "p_target_after": 0.3447,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3754
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 33,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5293,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4707
            },
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.67,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.8138,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1437
            },
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "matchday": 16,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6341,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.745,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1109
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Porto": {
      "team": "Porto",
      "target": "champion",
      "p_current": 0.4908,
      "n_target": 24541,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.248,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.33,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4199,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2719,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3082,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9814,
          "team_swing": 0.2467
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7085,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7675,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1614,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0711,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.7824,
          "team_swing": 0.18
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Sporting CP",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 29,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2911,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3838,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2765,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3397,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9607,
          "team_swing": 0.2658
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Famalicao",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.7162,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7734,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1581,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0685,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.7721,
          "team_swing": 0.1774
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "24": "W",
            "28": "W",
            "29": "L",
            "32": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0899,
          "n_sims_matching": 2207,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4908,
              "p_target_after": 0.6246,
              "n_sims_remaining": 16498
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6246,
              "p_target_after": 0.6646,
              "n_sims_remaining": 11749
            },
            {
              "matchday": 29,
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.6646,
              "p_target_after": 0.5635,
              "n_sims_remaining": 5134
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Famalicao",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.5635,
              "p_target_after": 0.601,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3672
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Benfica",
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5997,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4003
            },
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6566,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.754,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0973
            },
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Famalicao",
              "matchday": 23,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.2339,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.2796,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0456
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "24": "W",
            "28": "W",
            "29": "W",
            "32": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0841,
          "n_sims_matching": 2064,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4908,
              "p_target_after": 0.6246,
              "n_sims_remaining": 16498
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6246,
              "p_target_after": 0.6646,
              "n_sims_remaining": 11749
            },
            {
              "matchday": 29,
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6646,
              "p_target_after": 0.7991,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3454
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Famalicao",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.7991,
              "p_target_after": 0.8326,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2479
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5627,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4373
            },
            {
              "rival": "Benfica",
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5997,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4003
            },
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6566,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7074,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0507
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "24": "L",
            "28": "W",
            "29": "W",
            "32": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.074,
          "n_sims_matching": 1816,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.4908,
              "p_target_after": 0.3779,
              "n_sims_remaining": 20015
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.3779,
              "p_target_after": 0.4175,
              "n_sims_remaining": 14155
            },
            {
              "matchday": 29,
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4175,
              "p_target_after": 0.581,
              "n_sims_remaining": 4088
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Famalicao",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.581,
              "p_target_after": 0.619,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2934
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5627,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4373
            },
            {
              "rival": "Sporting CP",
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6566,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7351,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0785
            },
            {
              "rival": "Benfica",
              "opponent": "SC Braga",
              "matchday": 31,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5171,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.5661,
              "drop_uplift": 0.049
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Sporting CP": {
      "team": "Sporting CP",
      "target": "champion",
      "p_current": 0.2851,
      "n_target": 14257,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.2667,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Porto",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3434,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4954,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2684,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2362,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9999,
          "team_swing": 0.236
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Benfica",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 16,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3659,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4998,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2408,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2594,
          "within_target_entropy": 1.0,
          "team_swing": 0.1957
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.6683,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.757,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1636,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.0793,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.7999,
          "team_swing": 0.1473
        },
        {
          "opponent": "SC Braga",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.628,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.7226,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.1707,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.1067,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.8519,
          "team_swing": 0.1426
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "12": "W",
            "16": "W",
            "19": "W",
            "25": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.1157,
          "n_sims_matching": 1649,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 12,
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2851,
              "p_target_after": 0.4114,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17169
            },
            {
              "matchday": 16,
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4114,
              "p_target_after": 0.5323,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6246
            },
            {
              "matchday": 19,
              "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.5323,
              "p_target_after": 0.5805,
              "n_sims_remaining": 4176
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "SC Braga",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.5805,
              "p_target_after": 0.6352,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2596
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6159,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3841
            },
            {
              "rival": "Benfica",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 16,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6183,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3817
            },
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7089,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.8047,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0959
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "12": "D",
            "16": "W",
            "19": "W",
            "25": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0763,
          "n_sims_matching": 1088,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 12,
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "D",
              "p_target_before": 0.2851,
              "p_target_after": 0.2807,
              "n_sims_remaining": 13628
            },
            {
              "matchday": 16,
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2807,
              "p_target_after": 0.3895,
              "n_sims_remaining": 5040
            },
            {
              "matchday": 19,
              "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.3895,
              "p_target_after": 0.4349,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3440
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "SC Braga",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4349,
              "p_target_after": 0.5012,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2171
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6159,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3841
            },
            {
              "rival": "Benfica",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 16,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6183,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3817
            },
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7089,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.818,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1091
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "12": "W",
            "16": "L",
            "19": "W",
            "25": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0747,
          "n_sims_matching": 1065,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 12,
              "opponent": "Porto",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2851,
              "p_target_after": 0.4114,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17169
            },
            {
              "matchday": 16,
              "opponent": "Benfica",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.4114,
              "p_target_after": 0.2998,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6562
            },
            {
              "matchday": 19,
              "opponent": "Vitoria SC",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.2998,
              "p_target_after": 0.3422,
              "n_sims_remaining": 4345
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "SC Braga",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.3422,
              "p_target_after": 0.389,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2738
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6159,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3841
            },
            {
              "rival": "Porto",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7089,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.8329,
              "drop_uplift": 0.124
            },
            {
              "rival": "Benfica",
              "opponent": "Sporting CP",
              "matchday": 33,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7152,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.8225,
              "drop_uplift": 0.1073
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Academico Viseu": {
      "team": "Academico Viseu",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.942,
      "n_target": 47102,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.0412,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3552,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3669,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2723,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3608,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9482,
          "team_swing": 0.0599
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3781,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3896,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2866,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3238,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9645,
          "team_swing": 0.0597
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3833,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.396,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2727,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3313,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9686,
          "team_swing": 0.066
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 33,
          "p_win_overall": 0.375,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3859,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2856,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3285,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9621,
          "team_swing": 0.056
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "10": "L",
            "24": "W",
            "28": "W",
            "33": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0209,
          "n_sims_matching": 985,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.942,
              "p_target_after": 0.9131,
              "n_sims_remaining": 18613
            },
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9131,
              "p_target_after": 0.9518,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6976
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9518,
              "p_target_after": 0.9797,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2658
            },
            {
              "matchday": 33,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9797,
              "p_target_after": 0.9929,
              "n_sims_remaining": 992
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "matchday": 28,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.656,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.344
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
              "matchday": 20,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7077,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7381,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0304
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "10": "W",
            "24": "W",
            "28": "W",
            "33": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0203,
          "n_sims_matching": 956,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.942,
              "p_target_after": 0.973,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17759
            },
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.973,
              "p_target_after": 0.9892,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6775
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9892,
              "p_target_after": 0.9958,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2602
            },
            {
              "matchday": 33,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9958,
              "p_target_after": 0.9979,
              "n_sims_remaining": 958
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "matchday": 28,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.656,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.344
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Alverca",
              "matchday": 11,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7784,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.8086,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0302
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Casa Pia": {
      "team": "Casa Pia",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.4741,
      "n_target": 23703,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.085,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2931,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3695,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.271,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3594,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9503,
          "team_swing": 0.2056
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3778,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4599,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2785,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2616,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9954,
          "team_swing": 0.2038
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3565,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4402,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2664,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2934,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9897,
          "team_swing": 0.2059
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 31,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2859,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3661,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2737,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3602,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9476,
          "team_swing": 0.2197
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "unlikely",
          "results": {
            "24": "L",
            "26": "W",
            "30": "W",
            "31": "L"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0289,
          "n_sims_matching": 684,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.4741,
              "p_target_after": 0.392,
              "n_sims_remaining": 21733
            },
            {
              "matchday": 26,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.392,
              "p_target_after": 0.4948,
              "n_sims_remaining": 8194
            },
            {
              "matchday": 30,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4948,
              "p_target_after": 0.619,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3013
            },
            {
              "matchday": 31,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.619,
              "p_target_after": 0.5213,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1312
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "matchday": 14,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6592,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7427,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0835
            },
            {
              "rival": "Maritimo",
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "matchday": 18,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6918,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7632,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0714
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Santa Clara",
              "matchday": 18,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6916,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7368,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0452
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "24": "L",
            "26": "W",
            "30": "W",
            "31": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0281,
          "n_sims_matching": 667,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.4741,
              "p_target_after": 0.392,
              "n_sims_remaining": 21733
            },
            {
              "matchday": 26,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.392,
              "p_target_after": 0.4948,
              "n_sims_remaining": 8194
            },
            {
              "matchday": 30,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4948,
              "p_target_after": 0.619,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3013
            },
            {
              "matchday": 31,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.619,
              "p_target_after": 0.752,
              "n_sims_remaining": 887
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "matchday": 31,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5593,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4407
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "matchday": 21,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6794,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7331,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0538
            },
            {
              "rival": "Maritimo",
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "matchday": 18,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6918,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7451,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0533
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "24": "W",
            "26": "W",
            "30": "W",
            "31": "L"
          },
          "frequency": 0.028,
          "n_sims_matching": 664,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4741,
              "p_target_after": 0.5976,
              "n_sims_remaining": 14656
            },
            {
              "matchday": 26,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.5976,
              "p_target_after": 0.6974,
              "n_sims_remaining": 5644
            },
            {
              "matchday": 30,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6974,
              "p_target_after": 0.7918,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2075
            },
            {
              "matchday": 31,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.7918,
              "p_target_after": 0.7353,
              "n_sims_remaining": 903
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "matchday": 14,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6592,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7154,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0561
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "matchday": 28,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.656,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7033,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0473
            },
            {
              "rival": "Maritimo",
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "matchday": 18,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6918,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7304,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0386
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Estoril": {
      "team": "Estoril",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.8241,
      "n_target": 41206,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.1181,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 19,
          "p_win_overall": 0.5198,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.5539,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.237,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2091,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9916,
          "team_swing": 0.146
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 24,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4347,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4665,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2683,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2652,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9968,
          "team_swing": 0.1388
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 26,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4051,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4347,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2693,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.296,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9877,
          "team_swing": 0.1275
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4409,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4734,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2613,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2653,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.998,
          "team_swing": 0.138
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "19": "W",
            "24": "W",
            "26": "W",
            "28": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0487,
          "n_sims_matching": 2007,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 19,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8241,
              "p_target_after": 0.878,
              "n_sims_remaining": 25992
            },
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.878,
              "p_target_after": 0.9258,
              "n_sims_remaining": 11259
            },
            {
              "matchday": 26,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9258,
              "p_target_after": 0.9584,
              "n_sims_remaining": 4568
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9584,
              "p_target_after": 0.9776,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2053
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7069,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.2931
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "matchday": 19,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7645,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.2355
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "19": "W",
            "24": "W",
            "26": "L",
            "28": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0374,
          "n_sims_matching": 1540,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 19,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8241,
              "p_target_after": 0.878,
              "n_sims_remaining": 25992
            },
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.878,
              "p_target_after": 0.9258,
              "n_sims_remaining": 11259
            },
            {
              "matchday": 26,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.9258,
              "p_target_after": 0.8914,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3609
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8914,
              "p_target_after": 0.939,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1640
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7069,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.2931
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "matchday": 19,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7645,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.2355
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "matchday": 25,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6096,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.661,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0514
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "19": "W",
            "24": "W",
            "26": "D",
            "28": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.032,
          "n_sims_matching": 1320,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 19,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8241,
              "p_target_after": 0.878,
              "n_sims_remaining": 25992
            },
            {
              "matchday": 24,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.878,
              "p_target_after": 0.9258,
              "n_sims_remaining": 11259
            },
            {
              "matchday": 26,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "D",
              "p_target_before": 0.9258,
              "p_target_after": 0.9179,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3082
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9179,
              "p_target_after": 0.9422,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1401
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "matchday": 24,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7069,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.2931
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "matchday": 19,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7645,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.2355
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "matchday": 11,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5628,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.5939,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0311
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Estrela Amadora": {
      "team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.878,
      "n_target": 43901,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.0706,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 21,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3994,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4238,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.278,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2982,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9832,
          "team_swing": 0.1153
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3807,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4036,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2721,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3243,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.973,
          "team_swing": 0.1065
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Arouca",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3472,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3668,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2807,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3524,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9482,
          "team_swing": 0.0949
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 27,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3929,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4147,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2872,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2981,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9789,
          "team_swing": 0.1027
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "21": "W",
            "23": "W",
            "25": "L",
            "27": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0249,
          "n_sims_matching": 1094,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 21,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.878,
              "p_target_after": 0.9318,
              "n_sims_remaining": 19969
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9318,
              "p_target_after": 0.9691,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7672
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "Arouca",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.9691,
              "p_target_after": 0.9529,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2824
            },
            {
              "matchday": 27,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9529,
              "p_target_after": 0.9812,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1115
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "matchday": 21,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6794,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3206
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "21": "W",
            "23": "W",
            "25": "W",
            "27": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0244,
          "n_sims_matching": 1071,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 21,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.878,
              "p_target_after": 0.9318,
              "n_sims_remaining": 19969
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9318,
              "p_target_after": 0.9691,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7672
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "Arouca",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9691,
              "p_target_after": 0.9864,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2716
            },
            {
              "matchday": 27,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9864,
              "p_target_after": 0.9972,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1074
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "matchday": 21,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6794,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3206
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6535,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.6872,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0337
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "21": "W",
            "23": "L",
            "25": "W",
            "27": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0213,
          "n_sims_matching": 933,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 21,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.878,
              "p_target_after": 0.9318,
              "n_sims_remaining": 19969
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.9318,
              "p_target_after": 0.8951,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6805
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "Arouca",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8951,
              "p_target_after": 0.9435,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2335
            },
            {
              "matchday": 27,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9435,
              "p_target_after": 0.977,
              "n_sims_remaining": 955
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "matchday": 21,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6794,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3206
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Maritimo": {
      "team": "Maritimo",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.6909,
      "n_target": 34543,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.0716,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3552,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4061,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2624,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3315,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9744,
          "team_swing": 0.1836
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 18,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3082,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.357,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2895,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3535,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9401,
          "team_swing": 0.1968
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estoril",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 28,
          "p_win_overall": 0.2928,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3371,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2698,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3932,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.922,
          "team_swing": 0.1792
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3821,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4309,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2791,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.29,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9862,
          "team_swing": 0.1808
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "14": "W",
            "18": "W",
            "28": "L",
            "32": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0258,
          "n_sims_matching": 890,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6909,
              "p_target_after": 0.7898,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17760
            },
            {
              "matchday": 18,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.7898,
              "p_target_after": 0.8791,
              "n_sims_remaining": 5598
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.8791,
              "p_target_after": 0.8397,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2420
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8397,
              "p_target_after": 0.9138,
              "n_sims_remaining": 974
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "matchday": 18,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5952,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.4048
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6535,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.6955,
              "drop_uplift": 0.042
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5607,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.5989,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0382
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "unlikely",
          "results": {
            "14": "W",
            "18": "L",
            "28": "L",
            "32": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0247,
          "n_sims_matching": 853,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6909,
              "p_target_after": 0.7898,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17760
            },
            {
              "matchday": 18,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.7898,
              "p_target_after": 0.713,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7066
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.713,
              "p_target_after": 0.6402,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3038
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6402,
              "p_target_after": 0.7575,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1126
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6535,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7175,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0639
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5607,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.6084,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0478
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Arouca",
              "matchday": 15,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7558,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7937,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0379
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "14": "W",
            "18": "L",
            "28": "W",
            "32": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0211,
          "n_sims_matching": 730,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6909,
              "p_target_after": 0.7898,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17760
            },
            {
              "matchday": 18,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.7898,
              "p_target_after": 0.713,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7066
            },
            {
              "matchday": 28,
              "opponent": "Estoril",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.713,
              "p_target_after": 0.8132,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2141
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8132,
              "p_target_after": 0.8859,
              "n_sims_remaining": 824
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "matchday": 21,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7198,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7644,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0446
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "matchday": 17,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.687,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7315,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0445
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5607,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.6041,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0434
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Moreirense": {
      "team": "Moreirense",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.8492,
      "n_target": 42461,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.0764,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4045,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4313,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2886,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2801,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9863,
          "team_swing": 0.1195
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 23,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3491,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3769,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2853,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3377,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9558,
          "team_swing": 0.1283
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Nacional",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 32,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4091,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.438,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2762,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2858,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9889,
          "team_swing": 0.1285
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 34,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3872,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4128,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2775,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3097,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9779,
          "team_swing": 0.1117
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "10": "W",
            "23": "W",
            "32": "W",
            "34": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0285,
          "n_sims_matching": 1209,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8492,
              "p_target_after": 0.9055,
              "n_sims_remaining": 20223
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9055,
              "p_target_after": 0.9565,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7035
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9565,
              "p_target_after": 0.9765,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2977
            },
            {
              "matchday": 34,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9765,
              "p_target_after": 0.9886,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1223
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "matchday": 32,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6891,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3109
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "matchday": 34,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5955,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.6311,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0356
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "10": "W",
            "23": "L",
            "32": "W",
            "34": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0263,
          "n_sims_matching": 1116,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8492,
              "p_target_after": 0.9055,
              "n_sims_remaining": 20223
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.9055,
              "p_target_after": 0.8591,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7338
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8591,
              "p_target_after": 0.9215,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3006
            },
            {
              "matchday": 34,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9215,
              "p_target_after": 0.9588,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1164
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "matchday": 32,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6891,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3109
            },
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "matchday": 14,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6592,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.6944,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0352
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "10": "W",
            "23": "W",
            "32": "W",
            "34": "L"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0216,
          "n_sims_matching": 919,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Estrela Amadora",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8492,
              "p_target_after": 0.9055,
              "n_sims_remaining": 20223
            },
            {
              "matchday": 23,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9055,
              "p_target_after": 0.9565,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7035
            },
            {
              "matchday": 32,
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9565,
              "p_target_after": 0.9765,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2977
            },
            {
              "matchday": 34,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.9765,
              "p_target_after": 0.9593,
              "n_sims_remaining": 958
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Nacional",
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "matchday": 32,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6891,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3109
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Famalicao",
              "matchday": 16,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7384,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7758,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0375
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Arouca",
              "matchday": 15,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7558,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7878,
              "drop_uplift": 0.032
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Nacional": {
      "team": "Nacional",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.5714,
      "n_target": 28572,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.0902,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 12,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3465,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4177,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.269,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3133,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9804,
          "team_swing": 0.2163
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3408,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4089,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2766,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3145,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9759,
          "team_swing": 0.2091
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 15,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4012,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4677,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2739,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2584,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.997,
          "team_swing": 0.1995
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Rio Ave",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 25,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3904,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4594,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2575,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2831,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9952,
          "team_swing": 0.1979
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "12": "W",
            "14": "L",
            "15": "W",
            "25": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0309,
          "n_sims_matching": 884,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 12,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.5714,
              "p_target_after": 0.689,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17323
            },
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.689,
              "p_target_after": 0.6028,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6548
            },
            {
              "matchday": 15,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6028,
              "p_target_after": 0.6984,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2616
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.6984,
              "p_target_after": 0.8051,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1098
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Maritimo",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6212,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3788
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 31,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7141,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7647,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0506
            },
            {
              "rival": "Maritimo",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7104,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7511,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0407
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "12": "W",
            "14": "W",
            "15": "W",
            "25": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0297,
          "n_sims_matching": 848,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 12,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.5714,
              "p_target_after": 0.689,
              "n_sims_remaining": 17323
            },
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.689,
              "p_target_after": 0.7899,
              "n_sims_remaining": 5859
            },
            {
              "matchday": 15,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.7899,
              "p_target_after": 0.8595,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2341
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8595,
              "p_target_after": 0.9217,
              "n_sims_remaining": 920
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Maritimo",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 12,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6212,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3788
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 14,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6229,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3771
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
              "matchday": 20,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7077,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7394,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0317
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "12": "L",
            "14": "W",
            "15": "W",
            "25": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0296,
          "n_sims_matching": 845,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 12,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.5714,
              "p_target_after": 0.4727,
              "n_sims_remaining": 18940
            },
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.4727,
              "p_target_after": 0.5969,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6482
            },
            {
              "matchday": 15,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.5969,
              "p_target_after": 0.7053,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2616
            },
            {
              "matchday": 25,
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.7053,
              "p_target_after": 0.786,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1075
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 14,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6229,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3771
            },
            {
              "rival": "Maritimo",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 29,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7104,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7645,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0541
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Nacional",
              "matchday": 31,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7141,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7574,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0433
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "Rio Ave": {
      "team": "Rio Ave",
      "target": "survival",
      "p_current": 0.855,
      "n_target": 42749,
      "n_sims": 50000,
      "scenario_coverage": 0.0745,
      "story_matches": [
        {
          "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 10,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3723,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.397,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2697,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3333,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9692,
          "team_swing": 0.1095
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Maritimo",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 14,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3778,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4026,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2654,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3319,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9725,
          "team_swing": 0.1121
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Moreirense",
          "venue": "H",
          "matchday": 17,
          "p_win_overall": 0.4314,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.4567,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.2731,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.2702,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9946,
          "team_swing": 0.1163
        },
        {
          "opponent": "Casa Pia",
          "venue": "A",
          "matchday": 30,
          "p_win_overall": 0.3666,
          "p_win_given_target": 0.3927,
          "p_draw_given_target": 0.276,
          "p_loss_given_target": 0.3313,
          "within_target_entropy": 0.9665,
          "team_swing": 0.1213
        }
      ],
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "label": "comfortable",
          "results": {
            "10": "W",
            "14": "W",
            "17": "W",
            "30": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0269,
          "n_sims_matching": 1149,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.855,
              "p_target_after": 0.9118,
              "n_sims_remaining": 18613
            },
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9118,
              "p_target_after": 0.9537,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7066
            },
            {
              "matchday": 17,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9537,
              "p_target_after": 0.9753,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3156
            },
            {
              "matchday": 30,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9753,
              "p_target_after": 0.9897,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1161
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "matchday": 30,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6435,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3565
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Gil Vicente",
              "matchday": 20,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7077,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7441,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0364
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "10": "W",
            "14": "W",
            "17": "W",
            "30": "L"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0241,
          "n_sims_matching": 1031,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.855,
              "p_target_after": 0.9118,
              "n_sims_remaining": 18613
            },
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9118,
              "p_target_after": 0.9537,
              "n_sims_remaining": 7066
            },
            {
              "matchday": 17,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9537,
              "p_target_after": 0.9753,
              "n_sims_remaining": 3156
            },
            {
              "matchday": 30,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.9753,
              "p_target_after": 0.96,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1074
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": []
        },
        {
          "label": "realistic",
          "results": {
            "10": "W",
            "14": "L",
            "17": "W",
            "30": "W"
          },
          "frequency": 0.0235,
          "n_sims_matching": 1003,
          "steps": [
            {
              "matchday": 10,
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.855,
              "p_target_after": 0.9118,
              "n_sims_remaining": 18613
            },
            {
              "matchday": 14,
              "opponent": "Maritimo",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "L",
              "p_target_before": 0.9118,
              "p_target_after": 0.8682,
              "n_sims_remaining": 6614
            },
            {
              "matchday": 17,
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "venue": "H",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.8682,
              "p_target_after": 0.9159,
              "n_sims_remaining": 2819
            },
            {
              "matchday": 30,
              "opponent": "Casa Pia",
              "venue": "A",
              "result": "W",
              "p_target_before": 0.9159,
              "p_target_after": 0.9471,
              "n_sims_remaining": 1059
            }
          ],
          "rival_conditions": [
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Rio Ave",
              "matchday": 30,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.6435,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 1.0,
              "drop_uplift": 0.3565
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Moreirense",
              "matchday": 21,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.7198,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.7577,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0379
            },
            {
              "rival": "Casa Pia",
              "opponent": "Academico Viseu",
              "matchday": 34,
              "p_rival_drops_baseline": 0.5955,
              "p_rival_drops_in_scenario": 0.6301,
              "drop_uplift": 0.0346
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "next_matchday_scenarios": {
    "matchday": 2,
    "matchdays": [
      2,
      9
    ],
    "baseline": {
      "Academico Viseu": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.058
      },
      "Alverca": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0002,
        "p_relegation": 0.0102
      },
      "Arouca": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0001,
        "p_relegation": 0.0088
      },
      "Benfica": {
        "p_champion": 0.2231,
        "p_top3": 0.9725,
        "p_relegation": 0.0
      },
      "Casa Pia": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.5259
      },
      "Estoril": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.1759
      },
      "Estrela Amadora": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.122
      },
      "Famalicao": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.0229
      },
      "Gil Vicente": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0001,
        "p_relegation": 0.0121
      },
      "Maritimo": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.3091
      },
      "Moreirense": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.1508
      },
      "Nacional": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.4286
      },
      "Porto": {
        "p_champion": 0.4908,
        "p_top3": 0.9904,
        "p_relegation": 0.0
      },
      "Rio Ave": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.145
      },
      "SC Braga": {
        "p_champion": 0.0009,
        "p_top3": 0.0507,
        "p_relegation": 0.0
      },
      "Santa Clara": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0012,
        "p_relegation": 0.0004
      },
      "Sporting CP": {
        "p_champion": 0.2851,
        "p_top3": 0.9847,
        "p_relegation": 0.0
      },
      "Vitoria SC": {
        "p_champion": 0.0,
        "p_top3": 0.0,
        "p_relegation": 0.0304
      }
    },
    "matches": [
      {
        "home_team": "SC Braga",
        "away_team": "Gil Vicente",
        "matchday": 2,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 30239,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0585
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0103
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0088
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2217,
                "p_top3": 0.9663,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5239
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1753
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1229
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0224
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0154
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3101
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1501
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4268
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4899,
                "p_top3": 0.9889,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1447
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0013,
                "p_top3": 0.0622,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0012,
                "p_relegation": 0.0004
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.287,
                "p_top3": 0.981,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0304
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.9725,
                "conditional": 0.9663,
                "delta": -0.0063
              },
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.9847,
                "conditional": 0.981,
                "delta": -0.0037
              },
              {
                "team": "Casa Pia",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.5259,
                "conditional": 0.5239,
                "delta": -0.002
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 11616,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0568
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0104
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0099
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2278,
                "p_top3": 0.9805,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5301
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1735
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1207
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0216
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0093
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3095
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1513
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4261
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.491,
                "p_top3": 0.9921,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1484
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0004,
                "p_top3": 0.0371,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0008,
                "p_relegation": 0.0003
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2808,
                "p_top3": 0.9888,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.032
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.9725,
                "conditional": 0.9805,
                "delta": 0.0079
              },
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2851,
                "conditional": 0.2808,
                "delta": -0.0043
              },
              {
                "team": "Casa Pia",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.5259,
                "conditional": 0.5301,
                "delta": 0.0042
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 8145,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0575
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0093
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0069
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2215,
                "p_top3": 0.9844,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5276
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1815
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1204
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0265
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0004,
                "p_relegation": 0.0041
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3051
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1525
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4387
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4939,
                "p_top3": 0.9936,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1414
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0002,
                "p_top3": 0.0271,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0001,
                "p_top3": 0.0016,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2842,
                "p_top3": 0.9928,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0281
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.9725,
                "conditional": 0.9844,
                "delta": 0.0119
              },
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4387,
                "delta": 0.0101
              },
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.9847,
                "conditional": 0.9928,
                "delta": 0.008
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Sporting CP",
        "away_team": "Academico Viseu",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 44059,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0611
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0102
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0088
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2198,
                "p_top3": 0.9729,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5252
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1739
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.122
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0232
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.012
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3092
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1503
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4289
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.482,
                "p_top3": 0.9903,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.145
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0008,
                "p_top3": 0.0489,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0011,
                "p_relegation": 0.0004
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2973,
                "p_top3": 0.9863,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0299
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.482,
                "delta": -0.0089
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.2198,
                "delta": -0.0032
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1739,
                "delta": -0.002
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 4278,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0402
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0096
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0075
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.244,
                "p_top3": 0.9673,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5332
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1957
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1166
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0199
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0005,
                "p_relegation": 0.0117
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3029
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1543
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4233
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.5517,
                "p_top3": 0.9916,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1475
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0012,
                "p_top3": 0.065,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0014,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2031,
                "p_top3": 0.9741,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0372
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.5517,
                "delta": 0.0608
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.244,
                "delta": 0.021
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1957,
                "delta": 0.0198
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 1663,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0204
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0114
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0108
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.255,
                "p_top3": 0.9753,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5262
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.178
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1359
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0235
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0006,
                "p_relegation": 0.0156
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3247
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1533
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4342
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.5689,
                "p_top3": 0.9904,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1383
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.003,
                "p_top3": 0.0613,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0018,
                "p_relegation": 0.0006
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.1732,
                "p_top3": 0.9705,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0271
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.5689,
                "delta": 0.078
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.255,
                "delta": 0.0319
              },
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3247,
                "delta": 0.0156
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Rio Ave",
        "away_team": "Famalicao",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 15682,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0587
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0108
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.008
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.225,
                "p_top3": 0.9731,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5326
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1837
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1261
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0385
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0117
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3183
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1536
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4385
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4904,
                "p_top3": 0.9897,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0886
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0008,
                "p_top3": 0.0509,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0001,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0008
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2838,
                "p_top3": 0.9845,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0303
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4385,
                "delta": 0.01
              },
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3183,
                "delta": 0.0091
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1837,
                "delta": 0.0078
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 13626,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0591
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0098
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0096
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2175,
                "p_top3": 0.9732,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5252
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1701
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1243
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0247
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0124
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3127
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1532
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4238
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4967,
                "p_top3": 0.9919,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1435
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0008,
                "p_top3": 0.0497,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0008,
                "p_relegation": 0.0002
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.285,
                "p_top3": 0.9844,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0313
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.4967,
                "delta": 0.0059
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1701,
                "delta": -0.0058
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.2175,
                "delta": -0.0056
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 20692,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0566
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.01
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0088
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2253,
                "p_top3": 0.9716,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5214
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1738
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1173
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0099
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0123
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.2999
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1471
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4241
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4873,
                "p_top3": 0.99,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1888
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0012,
                "p_top3": 0.0512,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0003
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2863,
                "p_top3": 0.9851,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0299
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.2999,
                "delta": -0.0093
              },
              {
                "team": "Casa Pia",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.5259,
                "conditional": 0.5214,
                "delta": -0.0046
              },
              {
                "team": "Estrela Amadora",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.122,
                "conditional": 0.1173,
                "delta": -0.0046
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Santa Clara",
        "away_team": "Benfica",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 6732,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0529
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0004,
                "p_relegation": 0.01
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0071
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.1361,
                "p_top3": 0.9498,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5215
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1839
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1231
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0266
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0114
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3061
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1475
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4366
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.5504,
                "p_top3": 0.9909,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1408
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.001,
                "p_top3": 0.0713,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0031,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.3125,
                "p_top3": 0.9843,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0324
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.5504,
                "delta": 0.0595
              },
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2851,
                "conditional": 0.3125,
                "delta": 0.0274
              },
              {
                "team": "SC Braga",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.0507,
                "conditional": 0.0713,
                "delta": 0.0206
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 11032,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.056
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0111
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0094
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.1763,
                "p_top3": 0.9642,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5258
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1759
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1156
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0196
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0126
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3116
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1492
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4339
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.523,
                "p_top3": 0.9912,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1488
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.001,
                "p_top3": 0.0581,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0002
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2997,
                "p_top3": 0.9845,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0302
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.523,
                "delta": 0.0322
              },
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2851,
                "conditional": 0.2997,
                "delta": 0.0145
              },
              {
                "team": "SC Braga",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.0507,
                "conditional": 0.0581,
                "delta": 0.0074
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 32236,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0597
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0099
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0089
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2573,
                "p_top3": 0.9801,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5269
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1742
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1239
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0232
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0121
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3089
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.152
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4251
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4674,
                "p_top3": 0.99,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1446
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0009,
                "p_top3": 0.0438,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0007,
                "p_relegation": 0.0006
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2744,
                "p_top3": 0.9849,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0301
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.4674,
                "delta": -0.0235
              },
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2851,
                "conditional": 0.2744,
                "delta": -0.0107
              },
              {
                "team": "SC Braga",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.0507,
                "conditional": 0.0438,
                "delta": -0.0068
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Nacional",
        "away_team": "SC Braga",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 8321,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0645
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0125
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0094
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2211,
                "p_top3": 0.9845,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5527
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1937
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1365
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0268
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0143
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3202
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1662
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3049
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4993,
                "p_top3": 0.9954,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1606
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0002,
                "p_top3": 0.0266,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0016,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2793,
                "p_top3": 0.9913,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0373
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Casa Pia",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.5259,
                "conditional": 0.5527,
                "delta": 0.0268
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1937,
                "delta": 0.0178
              },
              {
                "team": "Rio Ave",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.145,
                "conditional": 0.1606,
                "delta": 0.0155
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 10851,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0591
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0107
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0101
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2205,
                "p_top3": 0.9785,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.527
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1829
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1236
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0225
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0124
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3151
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1512
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4069
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4882,
                "p_top3": 0.9935,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1461
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0006,
                "p_top3": 0.0358,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0001,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2906,
                "p_top3": 0.9905,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.032
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1829,
                "delta": 0.0071
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.9725,
                "conditional": 0.9785,
                "delta": 0.006
              },
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3151,
                "delta": 0.0059
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 30828,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0558
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0093
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0081
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2245,
                "p_top3": 0.9672,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5184
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1686
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1175
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.022
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0114
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3041
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1465
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4696
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4895,
                "p_top3": 0.988,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1405
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0012,
                "p_top3": 0.0624,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0004
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2848,
                "p_top3": 0.9809,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.028
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Casa Pia",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.5259,
                "conditional": 0.5184,
                "delta": -0.0076
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1686,
                "delta": -0.0073
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.9725,
                "conditional": 0.9672,
                "delta": -0.0053
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Estrela Amadora",
        "away_team": "Casa Pia",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 21050,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0583
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0004,
                "p_relegation": 0.0094
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0078
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2231,
                "p_top3": 0.9731,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.6024
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1715
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0711
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0226
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0122
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3014
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1467
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4252
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4901,
                "p_top3": 0.9904,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1413
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0008,
                "p_top3": 0.0499,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0011,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2859,
                "p_top3": 0.9847,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0298
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3014,
                "delta": -0.0078
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1715,
                "delta": -0.0044
              },
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1467,
                "delta": -0.0041
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 14359,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0566
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0087
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0096
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2247,
                "p_top3": 0.9712,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5353
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1719
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1349
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0238
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0124
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3069
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1461
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4218
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.487,
                "p_top3": 0.9904,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1431
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0009,
                "p_top3": 0.0506,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0014,
                "p_relegation": 0.0003
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2873,
                "p_top3": 0.9861,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0286
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4218,
                "delta": -0.0068
              },
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1461,
                "delta": -0.0047
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1719,
                "delta": -0.004
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 14591,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0588
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0127
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0093
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2214,
                "p_top3": 0.973,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4064
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1861
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1826
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0224
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0118
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3225
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1613
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4401
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4956,
                "p_top3": 0.9905,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1523
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0012,
                "p_top3": 0.0519,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0001,
                "p_top3": 0.001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0004
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2818,
                "p_top3": 0.9834,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0331
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3225,
                "delta": 0.0134
              },
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4401,
                "delta": 0.0115
              },
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1613,
                "delta": 0.0106
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Gil Vicente",
        "away_team": "Porto",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 6393,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0568
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0117
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0091
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2742,
                "p_top3": 0.9706,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5267
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1741
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1242
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0272
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0006,
                "p_relegation": 0.0028
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3108
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.152
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4294
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.3687,
                "p_top3": 0.9801,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1419
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0019,
                "p_top3": 0.0613,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0006
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.3552,
                "p_top3": 0.9861,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0327
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2851,
                "conditional": 0.3552,
                "delta": 0.0701
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.2742,
                "delta": 0.0511
              },
              {
                "team": "SC Braga",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.0507,
                "conditional": 0.0613,
                "delta": 0.0106
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 10936,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0539
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0091
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0088
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2553,
                "p_top3": 0.9721,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5304
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1791
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1244
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0224
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0089
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3058
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1554
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4283
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4226,
                "p_top3": 0.9864,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.142
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.001,
                "p_top3": 0.0539,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.321,
                "p_top3": 0.9856,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0309
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2851,
                "conditional": 0.321,
                "delta": 0.0359
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.2553,
                "delta": 0.0322
              },
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1554,
                "delta": 0.0047
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 32671,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0596
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0102
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0087
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2023,
                "p_top3": 0.973,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5243
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1751
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1207
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0222
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.015
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3099
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.149
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4285
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.5375,
                "p_top3": 0.9938,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1466
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0007,
                "p_top3": 0.0475,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0011,
                "p_relegation": 0.0003
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2594,
                "p_top3": 0.9842,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0298
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Sporting CP",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2851,
                "conditional": 0.2594,
                "delta": -0.0257
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.2023,
                "delta": -0.0208
              },
              {
                "team": "SC Braga",
                "metric": "p_top3",
                "baseline": 0.0507,
                "conditional": 0.0475,
                "delta": -0.0031
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Vitoria SC",
        "away_team": "Maritimo",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 28391,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0555
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0105
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0087
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2245,
                "p_top3": 0.9725,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5222
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1682
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1176
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0213
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0121
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3576
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1458
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4197
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4909,
                "p_top3": 0.99,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1423
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0011,
                "p_top3": 0.0512,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0011,
                "p_relegation": 0.0002
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2836,
                "p_top3": 0.9846,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0183
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4197,
                "delta": -0.0089
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1682,
                "delta": -0.0077
              },
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1458,
                "delta": -0.005
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 12347,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0602
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0084
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0082
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2194,
                "p_top3": 0.9732,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5247
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.183
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1248
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0238
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0113
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.2861
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1519
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.434
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4912,
                "p_top3": 0.9918,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1452
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0009,
                "p_top3": 0.0488,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0012,
                "p_relegation": 0.0007
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2885,
                "p_top3": 0.9847,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0377
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.183,
                "delta": 0.0072
              },
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.434,
                "delta": 0.0054
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.2194,
                "delta": -0.0037
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 9262,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0624
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0116
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0097
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2237,
                "p_top3": 0.9716,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5391
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1899
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1317
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0265
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0134
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1914
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1644
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4486
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4902,
                "p_top3": 0.99,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.153
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0006,
                "p_top3": 0.0516,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0001,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2854,
                "p_top3": 0.985,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0578
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4486,
                "delta": 0.02
              },
              {
                "team": "Estoril",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1759,
                "conditional": 0.1899,
                "delta": 0.014
              },
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1644,
                "delta": 0.0137
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Estoril",
        "away_team": "Moreirense",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 25071,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0588
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.011
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0086
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2268,
                "p_top3": 0.9735,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5309
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1256
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1221
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0236
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0138
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3145
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1862
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4271
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.487,
                "p_top3": 0.9902,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.147
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0009,
                "p_top3": 0.0488,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0014,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2853,
                "p_top3": 0.9856,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0303
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3145,
                "delta": 0.0054
              },
              {
                "team": "Casa Pia",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.5259,
                "conditional": 0.5309,
                "delta": 0.0049
              },
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.487,
                "delta": -0.0038
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 12922,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0573
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0004,
                "p_relegation": 0.0096
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.009
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2207,
                "p_top3": 0.9722,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5156
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1972
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1208
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0227
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0109
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3013
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1477
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4309
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4937,
                "p_top3": 0.9898,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1444
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0009,
                "p_top3": 0.0512,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0005,
                "p_relegation": 0.0003
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2848,
                "p_top3": 0.9856,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0323
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Casa Pia",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.5259,
                "conditional": 0.5156,
                "delta": -0.0104
              },
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3013,
                "delta": -0.0078
              },
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.4937,
                "delta": 0.0028
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 12007,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0568
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.009
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0089
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.218,
                "p_top3": 0.9708,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5269
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.2578
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.123
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0216
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0099
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3062
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0803
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4292
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4958,
                "p_top3": 0.9915,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1415
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0012,
                "p_top3": 0.054,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0015,
                "p_relegation": 0.0004
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2851,
                "p_top3": 0.9818,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0285
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.218,
                "delta": -0.0051
              },
              {
                "team": "Porto",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.4908,
                "conditional": 0.4958,
                "delta": 0.005
              },
              {
                "team": "Rio Ave",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.145,
                "conditional": 0.1415,
                "delta": -0.0035
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "home_team": "Alverca",
        "away_team": "Arouca",
        "matchday": 9,
        "conditionals": {
          "H": {
            "n_sims": 22228,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0583
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0003,
                "p_relegation": 0.0045
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0124
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2252,
                "p_top3": 0.9721,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5279
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1777
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.121
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0243
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0121
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3116
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1475
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4252
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.491,
                "p_top3": 0.9901,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.146
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0009,
                "p_top3": 0.0507,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0005
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.283,
                "p_top3": 0.9852,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0311
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4252,
                "delta": -0.0034
              },
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1475,
                "delta": -0.0033
              },
              {
                "team": "Maritimo",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.3091,
                "conditional": 0.3116,
                "delta": 0.0025
              }
            ]
          },
          "D": {
            "n_sims": 13383,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0591
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0124
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0088
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2189,
                "p_top3": 0.9715,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5228
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1723
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1264
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0209
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0107
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.305
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1506
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.437
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4909,
                "p_top3": 0.9915,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1441
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0012,
                "p_top3": 0.0519,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0009,
                "p_relegation": 0.0004
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2889,
                "p_top3": 0.984,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0296
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.437,
                "delta": 0.0085
              },
              {
                "team": "Estrela Amadora",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.122,
                "conditional": 0.1264,
                "delta": 0.0044
              },
              {
                "team": "Benfica",
                "metric": "p_champion",
                "baseline": 0.2231,
                "conditional": 0.2189,
                "delta": -0.0041
              }
            ]
          },
          "A": {
            "n_sims": 14389,
            "teams": {
              "Academico Viseu": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0564
              },
              "Alverca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0001,
                "p_relegation": 0.0168
              },
              "Arouca": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0031
              },
              "Benfica": {
                "p_champion": 0.2236,
                "p_top3": 0.9742,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Casa Pia": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.5258
              },
              "Estoril": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1765
              },
              "Estrela Amadora": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1195
              },
              "Famalicao": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.0225
              },
              "Gil Vicente": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0002,
                "p_relegation": 0.0136
              },
              "Maritimo": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.3091
              },
              "Moreirense": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1561
              },
              "Nacional": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.4259
              },
              "Porto": {
                "p_champion": 0.4905,
                "p_top3": 0.9899,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Rio Ave": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.1444
              },
              "SC Braga": {
                "p_champion": 0.0008,
                "p_top3": 0.0496,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Santa Clara": {
                "p_champion": 0.0001,
                "p_top3": 0.0013,
                "p_relegation": 0.0003
              },
              "Sporting CP": {
                "p_champion": 0.2849,
                "p_top3": 0.9846,
                "p_relegation": 0.0
              },
              "Vitoria SC": {
                "p_champion": 0.0,
                "p_top3": 0.0,
                "p_relegation": 0.03
              }
            },
            "movers": [
              {
                "team": "Moreirense",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.1508,
                "conditional": 0.1561,
                "delta": 0.0053
              },
              {
                "team": "Nacional",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.4286,
                "conditional": 0.4259,
                "delta": -0.0027
              },
              {
                "team": "Estrela Amadora",
                "metric": "p_relegation",
                "baseline": 0.122,
                "conditional": 0.1195,
                "delta": -0.0025
              }
            ]
          }
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "points_lookup": {
    "Benfica": {
      "team": "Benfica",
      "target": "champion",
      "current_points": 19,
      "p_current": 0.2231,
      "lookup": {
        "41": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 54
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 75
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 131
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 155
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 257
        },
        "46": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 354
        },
        "47": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 477
        },
        "48": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 658
        },
        "49": {
          "p_target": 0.0023,
          "n_sims": 859
        },
        "50": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 1070
        },
        "51": {
          "p_target": 0.0007,
          "n_sims": 1398
        },
        "52": {
          "p_target": 0.0018,
          "n_sims": 1704
        },
        "53": {
          "p_target": 0.002,
          "n_sims": 2023
        },
        "54": {
          "p_target": 0.0085,
          "n_sims": 2365
        },
        "55": {
          "p_target": 0.014,
          "n_sims": 2710
        },
        "56": {
          "p_target": 0.0289,
          "n_sims": 2979
        },
        "57": {
          "p_target": 0.0414,
          "n_sims": 3143
        },
        "58": {
          "p_target": 0.0694,
          "n_sims": 3415
        },
        "59": {
          "p_target": 0.1036,
          "n_sims": 3493
        },
        "60": {
          "p_target": 0.163,
          "n_sims": 3356
        },
        "61": {
          "p_target": 0.2341,
          "n_sims": 3328
        },
        "62": {
          "p_target": 0.3045,
          "n_sims": 3097
        },
        "63": {
          "p_target": 0.3936,
          "n_sims": 2721
        },
        "64": {
          "p_target": 0.4909,
          "n_sims": 2414
        },
        "65": {
          "p_target": 0.5948,
          "n_sims": 1967
        },
        "66": {
          "p_target": 0.6763,
          "n_sims": 1656
        },
        "67": {
          "p_target": 0.7613,
          "n_sims": 1265
        },
        "68": {
          "p_target": 0.8195,
          "n_sims": 986
        },
        "69": {
          "p_target": 0.8867,
          "n_sims": 653
        },
        "70": {
          "p_target": 0.9185,
          "n_sims": 466
        },
        "71": {
          "p_target": 0.9394,
          "n_sims": 330
        },
        "72": {
          "p_target": 0.9872,
          "n_sims": 156
        },
        "73": {
          "p_target": 0.9732,
          "n_sims": 112
        },
        "74": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 72
        }
      }
    },
    "Porto": {
      "team": "Porto",
      "target": "champion",
      "current_points": 24,
      "p_current": 0.4908,
      "lookup": {
        "41": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 86
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 136
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 169
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 267
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 339
        },
        "46": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 539
        },
        "47": {
          "p_target": 0.0101,
          "n_sims": 696
        },
        "48": {
          "p_target": 0.0071,
          "n_sims": 850
        },
        "49": {
          "p_target": 0.0213,
          "n_sims": 1176
        },
        "50": {
          "p_target": 0.0269,
          "n_sims": 1337
        },
        "51": {
          "p_target": 0.0439,
          "n_sims": 1662
        },
        "52": {
          "p_target": 0.0756,
          "n_sims": 1972
        },
        "53": {
          "p_target": 0.1337,
          "n_sims": 2364
        },
        "54": {
          "p_target": 0.1764,
          "n_sims": 2687
        },
        "55": {
          "p_target": 0.2466,
          "n_sims": 2981
        },
        "56": {
          "p_target": 0.3121,
          "n_sims": 3233
        },
        "57": {
          "p_target": 0.4039,
          "n_sims": 3399
        },
        "58": {
          "p_target": 0.5062,
          "n_sims": 3465
        },
        "59": {
          "p_target": 0.5965,
          "n_sims": 3353
        },
        "60": {
          "p_target": 0.6904,
          "n_sims": 3211
        },
        "61": {
          "p_target": 0.772,
          "n_sims": 2960
        },
        "62": {
          "p_target": 0.8421,
          "n_sims": 2729
        },
        "63": {
          "p_target": 0.9033,
          "n_sims": 2419
        },
        "64": {
          "p_target": 0.9345,
          "n_sims": 1969
        },
        "65": {
          "p_target": 0.9647,
          "n_sims": 1673
        },
        "66": {
          "p_target": 0.9765,
          "n_sims": 1321
        },
        "67": {
          "p_target": 0.9925,
          "n_sims": 939
        },
        "68": {
          "p_target": 0.9945,
          "n_sims": 727
        },
        "69": {
          "p_target": 0.998,
          "n_sims": 495
        },
        "70": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 286
        },
        "71": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 199
        },
        "72": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 120
        },
        "73": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 60
        }
      }
    },
    "Sporting CP": {
      "team": "Sporting CP",
      "target": "champion",
      "current_points": 18,
      "p_current": 0.2851,
      "lookup": {
        "44": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 54
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 86
        },
        "46": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 144
        },
        "47": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 194
        },
        "48": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 283
        },
        "49": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 401
        },
        "50": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 540
        },
        "51": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 791
        },
        "52": {
          "p_target": 0.002,
          "n_sims": 992
        },
        "53": {
          "p_target": 0.0071,
          "n_sims": 1268
        },
        "54": {
          "p_target": 0.0044,
          "n_sims": 1606
        },
        "55": {
          "p_target": 0.0143,
          "n_sims": 1952
        },
        "56": {
          "p_target": 0.0257,
          "n_sims": 2338
        },
        "57": {
          "p_target": 0.0329,
          "n_sims": 2707
        },
        "58": {
          "p_target": 0.0523,
          "n_sims": 3020
        },
        "59": {
          "p_target": 0.0827,
          "n_sims": 3349
        },
        "60": {
          "p_target": 0.1228,
          "n_sims": 3493
        },
        "61": {
          "p_target": 0.1945,
          "n_sims": 3507
        },
        "62": {
          "p_target": 0.258,
          "n_sims": 3620
        },
        "63": {
          "p_target": 0.3291,
          "n_sims": 3491
        },
        "64": {
          "p_target": 0.4167,
          "n_sims": 3333
        },
        "65": {
          "p_target": 0.5141,
          "n_sims": 2935
        },
        "66": {
          "p_target": 0.6157,
          "n_sims": 2516
        },
        "67": {
          "p_target": 0.6922,
          "n_sims": 2089
        },
        "68": {
          "p_target": 0.7925,
          "n_sims": 1663
        },
        "69": {
          "p_target": 0.8749,
          "n_sims": 1311
        },
        "70": {
          "p_target": 0.8854,
          "n_sims": 838
        },
        "71": {
          "p_target": 0.9325,
          "n_sims": 578
        },
        "72": {
          "p_target": 0.977,
          "n_sims": 348
        },
        "73": {
          "p_target": 0.9726,
          "n_sims": 219
        },
        "74": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 129
        },
        "76": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 53
        }
      }
    },
    "Academico Viseu": {
      "team": "Academico Viseu",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 14,
      "p_current": 0.942,
      "lookup": {
        "9": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 61
        },
        "10": {
          "p_target": 0.0463,
          "n_sims": 108
        },
        "11": {
          "p_target": 0.0545,
          "n_sims": 202
        },
        "12": {
          "p_target": 0.0778,
          "n_sims": 257
        },
        "13": {
          "p_target": 0.2239,
          "n_sims": 393
        },
        "14": {
          "p_target": 0.3187,
          "n_sims": 546
        },
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.439,
          "n_sims": 836
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.6327,
          "n_sims": 1108
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.7712,
          "n_sims": 1377
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.8732,
          "n_sims": 1648
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.9466,
          "n_sims": 2079
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.982,
          "n_sims": 2339
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.9955,
          "n_sims": 2661
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.9982,
          "n_sims": 2816
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 3114
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 3143
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 3250
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 3189
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2969
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2739
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2630
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2362
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2073
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1726
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1471
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1127
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 979
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 743
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 564
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 434
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 305
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 230
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 176
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 101
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 68
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 50
        }
      }
    },
    "Casa Pia": {
      "team": "Casa Pia",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 4,
      "p_current": 0.4741,
      "lookup": {
        "10": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 77
        },
        "11": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 139
        },
        "12": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 261
        },
        "13": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 351
        },
        "14": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 501
        },
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.0013,
          "n_sims": 765
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.001,
          "n_sims": 965
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.0031,
          "n_sims": 1304
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.0033,
          "n_sims": 1525
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.0068,
          "n_sims": 1909
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.0143,
          "n_sims": 2305
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.029,
          "n_sims": 2657
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.0768,
          "n_sims": 2812
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 0.1366,
          "n_sims": 3039
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 0.2191,
          "n_sims": 3281
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 0.3414,
          "n_sims": 3240
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 0.4952,
          "n_sims": 3201
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 0.6482,
          "n_sims": 3104
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 0.8037,
          "n_sims": 2929
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 0.9026,
          "n_sims": 2628
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 0.9612,
          "n_sims": 2477
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 0.9881,
          "n_sims": 2011
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 0.9972,
          "n_sims": 1807
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1525
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1237
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 994
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 793
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 608
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 434
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 353
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 250
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 142
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 100
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 76
        }
      }
    },
    "Estoril": {
      "team": "Estoril",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 2,
      "p_current": 0.8241,
      "lookup": {
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 55
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 87
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 105
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 172
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 279
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.0132,
          "n_sims": 379
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.0259,
          "n_sims": 541
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.043,
          "n_sims": 674
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 0.0957,
          "n_sims": 888
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 0.174,
          "n_sims": 1144
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 0.2446,
          "n_sims": 1423
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 0.4117,
          "n_sims": 1800
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 0.5256,
          "n_sims": 1990
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 0.6759,
          "n_sims": 2345
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 0.8138,
          "n_sims": 2626
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 0.9059,
          "n_sims": 2731
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 0.9668,
          "n_sims": 2985
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 0.9869,
          "n_sims": 3051
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 0.9957,
          "n_sims": 3009
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 0.9993,
          "n_sims": 3013
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2908
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2756
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2505
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2242
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2054
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1673
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1463
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1234
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 959
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 751
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 603
        },
        "46": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 476
        },
        "47": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 310
        },
        "48": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 238
        },
        "49": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 167
        },
        "50": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 111
        },
        "51": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 78
        }
      }
    },
    "Estrela Amadora": {
      "team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 10,
      "p_current": 0.878,
      "lookup": {
        "11": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 90
        },
        "12": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 163
        },
        "13": {
          "p_target": 0.0239,
          "n_sims": 251
        },
        "14": {
          "p_target": 0.0365,
          "n_sims": 356
        },
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.0577,
          "n_sims": 537
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.1258,
          "n_sims": 747
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.2353,
          "n_sims": 986
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.3341,
          "n_sims": 1260
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.4963,
          "n_sims": 1624
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.6502,
          "n_sims": 1887
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.7951,
          "n_sims": 2274
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.8881,
          "n_sims": 2583
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 0.9532,
          "n_sims": 2883
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 0.9886,
          "n_sims": 3065
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 0.9939,
          "n_sims": 3263
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 0.9994,
          "n_sims": 3179
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 0.9997,
          "n_sims": 3187
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 3089
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2972
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2706
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2414
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2151
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1778
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1502
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1214
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1000
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 765
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 529
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 465
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 312
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 232
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 150
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 121
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 61
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 50
        }
      }
    },
    "Maritimo": {
      "team": "Maritimo",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 8,
      "p_current": 0.6909,
      "lookup": {
        "8": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 54
        },
        "9": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 63
        },
        "10": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 162
        },
        "11": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 213
        },
        "12": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 340
        },
        "13": {
          "p_target": 0.0042,
          "n_sims": 477
        },
        "14": {
          "p_target": 0.007,
          "n_sims": 717
        },
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.008,
          "n_sims": 1000
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.0193,
          "n_sims": 1293
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.0693,
          "n_sims": 1545
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.1109,
          "n_sims": 1903
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.1863,
          "n_sims": 2201
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.2927,
          "n_sims": 2627
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.4447,
          "n_sims": 2692
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.5778,
          "n_sims": 2975
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 0.7406,
          "n_sims": 3138
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 0.8485,
          "n_sims": 3267
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 0.9346,
          "n_sims": 3178
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 0.9787,
          "n_sims": 3009
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 0.9906,
          "n_sims": 2882
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 0.9981,
          "n_sims": 2634
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 0.9996,
          "n_sims": 2374
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2190
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1858
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1613
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1257
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1065
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 848
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 630
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 521
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 386
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 273
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 200
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 133
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 88
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 50
        }
      }
    },
    "Moreirense": {
      "team": "Moreirense",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 8,
      "p_current": 0.8492,
      "lookup": {
        "12": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 110
        },
        "13": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 167
        },
        "14": {
          "p_target": 0.004,
          "n_sims": 247
        },
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.0093,
          "n_sims": 323
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.0333,
          "n_sims": 451
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.0773,
          "n_sims": 686
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.1306,
          "n_sims": 888
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.2221,
          "n_sims": 1184
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.3546,
          "n_sims": 1486
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.4663,
          "n_sims": 1797
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.6272,
          "n_sims": 2119
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 0.7754,
          "n_sims": 2409
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 0.8724,
          "n_sims": 2656
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 0.9402,
          "n_sims": 2910
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 0.9834,
          "n_sims": 3021
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 0.9935,
          "n_sims": 3226
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 0.9981,
          "n_sims": 3108
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 0.9997,
          "n_sims": 3035
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2967
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2799
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2495
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2245
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1946
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1621
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1406
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1127
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 891
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 701
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 552
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 399
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 313
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 191
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 143
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 110
        },
        "46": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 59
        },
        "47": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 54
        }
      }
    },
    "Nacional": {
      "team": "Nacional",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 4,
      "p_current": 0.5714,
      "lookup": {
        "11": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 87
        },
        "12": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 152
        },
        "13": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 237
        },
        "14": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 391
        },
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 515
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.0014,
          "n_sims": 711
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.004,
          "n_sims": 994
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.0008,
          "n_sims": 1236
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.0077,
          "n_sims": 1553
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.0192,
          "n_sims": 1875
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.0524,
          "n_sims": 2233
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.1057,
          "n_sims": 2506
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 0.163,
          "n_sims": 2742
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 0.2814,
          "n_sims": 2942
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 0.418,
          "n_sims": 3172
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 0.5786,
          "n_sims": 3182
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 0.731,
          "n_sims": 3279
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 0.8453,
          "n_sims": 3129
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 0.9251,
          "n_sims": 2977
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 0.9723,
          "n_sims": 2775
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 0.9917,
          "n_sims": 2397
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 0.9985,
          "n_sims": 2067
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1790
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1617
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1279
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1069
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 842
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 586
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 481
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 334
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 270
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 154
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 126
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 71
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 50
        }
      }
    },
    "Rio Ave": {
      "team": "Rio Ave",
      "target": "survival",
      "current_points": 7,
      "p_current": 0.855,
      "lookup": {
        "12": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 61
        },
        "13": {
          "p_target": 0.0,
          "n_sims": 97
        },
        "14": {
          "p_target": 0.0062,
          "n_sims": 161
        },
        "15": {
          "p_target": 0.0092,
          "n_sims": 217
        },
        "16": {
          "p_target": 0.0133,
          "n_sims": 301
        },
        "17": {
          "p_target": 0.0288,
          "n_sims": 451
        },
        "18": {
          "p_target": 0.0712,
          "n_sims": 674
        },
        "19": {
          "p_target": 0.1136,
          "n_sims": 880
        },
        "20": {
          "p_target": 0.2262,
          "n_sims": 1101
        },
        "21": {
          "p_target": 0.3211,
          "n_sims": 1361
        },
        "22": {
          "p_target": 0.4739,
          "n_sims": 1705
        },
        "23": {
          "p_target": 0.6106,
          "n_sims": 1993
        },
        "24": {
          "p_target": 0.7657,
          "n_sims": 2347
        },
        "25": {
          "p_target": 0.881,
          "n_sims": 2530
        },
        "26": {
          "p_target": 0.9535,
          "n_sims": 2773
        },
        "27": {
          "p_target": 0.9806,
          "n_sims": 2942
        },
        "28": {
          "p_target": 0.9949,
          "n_sims": 3145
        },
        "29": {
          "p_target": 0.9963,
          "n_sims": 3214
        },
        "30": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 3100
        },
        "31": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 3032
        },
        "32": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2790
        },
        "33": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2569
        },
        "34": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2286
        },
        "35": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 2075
        },
        "36": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1726
        },
        "37": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1499
        },
        "38": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 1169
        },
        "39": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 977
        },
        "40": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 760
        },
        "41": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 582
        },
        "42": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 439
        },
        "43": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 305
        },
        "44": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 225
        },
        "45": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 148
        },
        "46": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 116
        },
        "47": {
          "p_target": 1.0,
          "n_sims": 68
        }
      }
    }
  }
}