{
  "generated_at": "2026-08-10T17:40:54Z",
  "source": "ADR-011",
  "model": "joint_sot",
  "market": "pinnacle_close_shin",
  "metric": "rps",
  "n": 504,
  "seasons": [
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    "2018-19",
    "2019-20",
    "2020-21",
    "2021-22",
    "2022-23",
    "2023-24",
    "2024-25"
  ],
  "n_seasons": 8,
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    "delta": 0.00103,
    "se": 0.00207,
    "t": 0.5
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  "overall_vs_open": {
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    "market_rps": 0.18374,
    "delta": 0.00137,
    "se": 0.00185,
    "t": 0.74
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  "close_vs_open": {
    "n": 504,
    "delta": 0.00034,
    "se": 0.00107,
    "t": 0.32,
    "all_priced_matches": {
      "delta": -0.00081,
      "se": 0.0004,
      "n": 3669
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  },
  "checkpoints": [
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      "market_rps": 0.17842,
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      "phase": "early"
    },
    {
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      "market_rps": 0.1782,
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      "phase": "early"
    },
    {
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      "market_rps": 0.18796,
      "delta": -0.00413,
      "se": 0.00489,
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    },
    {
      "n": 72,
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      "se": 0.00472,
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      "phase": "mid_late"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
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      "phase": "mid_late"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
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      "se": 0.00456,
      "t": -0.24,
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      "phase": "mid_late"
    },
    {
      "n": 72,
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      "delta": -0.0001,
      "se": 0.00647,
      "t": -0.01,
      "checkpoint": 30,
      "phase": "mid_late"
    }
  ],
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      "model_rps": 0.18809,
      "market_rps": 0.17831,
      "delta": 0.00977,
      "se": 0.00453,
      "t": 2.16,
      "checkpoints": [
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        10
      ],
      "label_pt": "Jornadas 6-10",
      "label_en": "Matchdays 6-10"
    },
    "mid_late": {
      "n": 360,
      "model_rps": 0.18391,
      "market_rps": 0.18639,
      "delta": -0.00247,
      "se": 0.00223,
      "t": -1.11,
      "checkpoints": [
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        18,
        22,
        26,
        30
      ],
      "label_pt": "Jornadas 14-30",
      "label_en": "Matchdays 14-30"
    }
  },
  "disagreement_summary": {
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    "pct_of_matches": 10.5,
    "model_pick_won": 15,
    "market_pick_won": 22,
    "neither_won": 16,
    "model_rps": 0.23348,
    "market_rps": 0.22342,
    "delta": 0.01006,
    "se": 0.00785,
    "mean_tvd_all_matches": 0.0595
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      "season": "2022-23",
      "date": "2022-09-17",
      "matchday": 7,
      "checkpoint": 6,
      "home_team": "Santa Clara",
      "away_team": "Pacos Ferreira",
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      "away_goals": 1,
      "outcome": "draw",
      "model_pick": "away",
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      "market_pick": "home",
      "market_pick_prob": 0.532,
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      "market_rps": 0.1568,
      "verdict": "neither"
    },
    {
      "season": "2019-20",
      "date": "2020-01-31",
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      "checkpoint": 18,
      "home_team": "Rio Ave",
      "away_team": "Famalicao",
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      "away_goals": 2,
      "outcome": "draw",
      "model_pick": "away",
      "model_pick_prob": 0.38,
      "market_pick": "home",
      "market_pick_prob": 0.488,
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      "market_rps": 0.1487,
      "verdict": "neither"
    },
    {
      "season": "2020-21",
      "date": "2020-12-27",
      "matchday": 11,
      "checkpoint": 10,
      "home_team": "Famalicao",
      "away_team": "Gil Vicente",
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      "model_pick": "home",
      "model_pick_prob": 0.475,
      "market_pick": "away",
      "market_pick_prob": 0.37,
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      "market_rps": 0.2493,
      "verdict": "market"
    },
    {
      "season": "2021-22",
      "date": "2021-11-06",
      "matchday": 11,
      "checkpoint": 10,
      "home_team": "Vizela",
      "away_team": "Estoril",
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      "outcome": "draw",
      "model_pick": "away",
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      "market_pick": "home",
      "market_pick_prob": 0.421,
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      "market_rps": 0.1269,
      "verdict": "neither"
    },
    {
      "season": "2019-20",
      "date": "2020-07-11",
      "matchday": 31,
      "checkpoint": 30,
      "home_team": "Belenenses SAD",
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      "outcome": "away",
      "model_pick": "away",
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      "market_pick": "home",
      "market_pick_prob": 0.428,
      "model_rps": 0.2414,
      "market_rps": 0.3612,
      "verdict": "model"
    },
    {
      "season": "2023-24",
      "date": "2024-01-31",
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      "checkpoint": 18,
      "home_team": "Rio Ave",
      "away_team": "Estoril",
      "home_goals": 1,
      "away_goals": 1,
      "outcome": "draw",
      "model_pick": "away",
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      "market_pick": "home",
      "market_pick_prob": 0.44,
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      "market_rps": 0.1358,
      "verdict": "neither"
    },
    {
      "season": "2018-19",
      "date": "2018-10-06",
      "matchday": 7,
      "checkpoint": 6,
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      "away_team": "Vitoria SC",
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      "away_goals": 3,
      "outcome": "away",
      "model_pick": "away",
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      "market_pick": "home",
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      "market_rps": 0.3525,
      "verdict": "model"
    },
    {
      "season": "2021-22",
      "date": "2021-12-19",
      "matchday": 15,
      "checkpoint": 14,
      "home_team": "Boavista",
      "away_team": "Moreirense",
      "home_goals": 1,
      "away_goals": 0,
      "outcome": "home",
      "model_pick": "home",
      "model_pick_prob": 0.459,
      "market_pick": "away",
      "market_pick_prob": 0.362,
      "model_rps": 0.1874,
      "market_rps": 0.294,
      "verdict": "model"
    }
  ]
}