{ "metric": "goalkeeper shot-stopping — goals prevented above expectation", "unit": "goals per 90 minutes vs a league-average keeper facing the same shots", "interval": "90% highest-density posterior interval", "keepers": [ { "rank": 1, "keeper": "André Ferreira", "keeper_id": 788197, "team": "Moreirense", "matches": 23, "minutes": 2070.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 107, "xgot_faced": 37.179, "goals_conceded": 32, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1526, "goals_prevented_raw": 5.179, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.2252, "goals_prevented": 0.941, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.53, "goals_prevented_hi": 4.523, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0409, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.11, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1966, "sar_per90": 0.1882, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0299, "sar_per90_hi": 0.4234, "skill_logit": 0.0626, "p_above_average": 0.67 }, { "rank": 2, "keeper": "Lazar Carević", "keeper_id": 886204, "team": "Famalicao", "matches": 35, "minutes": 3150.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 118, "xgot_faced": 29.274, "goals_conceded": 23, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1332, "goals_prevented_raw": 6.274, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1793, "goals_prevented": 1.144, "goals_prevented_lo": -1.862, "goals_prevented_hi": 4.532, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0327, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.0532, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1295, "sar_per90": 0.1275, "sar_per90_lo": -0.019, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2788, "skill_logit": 0.0818, "p_above_average": 0.713 }, { "rank": 3, "keeper": "Rui Silva", "keeper_id": 253809, "team": "Sporting CP", "matches": 33, "minutes": 2970.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 95, "xgot_faced": 25.058, "goals_conceded": 19, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1104, "goals_prevented_raw": 6.058, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1836, "goals_prevented": 0.949, "goals_prevented_lo": -1.268, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.631, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0288, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.0384, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.11, "sar_per90": 0.0992, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0134, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2173, "skill_logit": 0.0951, "p_above_average": 0.735 }, { "rank": 4, "keeper": "Adriel", "keeper_id": 1106840, "team": "AVS", "matches": 16, "minutes": 1440.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 83, "xgot_faced": 27.034, "goals_conceded": 24, "mean_xg_faced": 0.2097, "goals_prevented_raw": 3.034, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1896, "goals_prevented": 0.368, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.138, "goals_prevented_hi": 2.955, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.023, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1336, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1847, "sar_per90": 0.1738, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0452, "sar_per90_hi": 0.4111, "skill_logit": 0.0364, "p_above_average": 0.599 }, { "rank": 5, "keeper": "Charles", "keeper_id": 155985, "team": "Vitoria SC", "matches": 19, "minutes": 1710.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 89, "xgot_faced": 30.078, "goals_conceded": 27, "mean_xg_faced": 0.2033, "goals_prevented_raw": 3.078, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.162, "goals_prevented": 0.39, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.259, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.256, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0205, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1189, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1714, "sar_per90": 0.1592, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0393, "sar_per90_hi": 0.3849, "skill_logit": 0.0349, "p_above_average": 0.591 }, { "rank": 6, "keeper": "Lukáš Horníček", "keeper_id": 963744, "team": "SC Braga", "matches": 33, "minutes": 2960.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 101, "xgot_faced": 33.404, "goals_conceded": 29, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1481, "goals_prevented_raw": 4.404, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1339, "goals_prevented": 0.671, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.648, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.791, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0204, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.0805, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1153, "sar_per90": 0.1138, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0311, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2545, "skill_logit": 0.0503, "p_above_average": 0.636 }, { "rank": 7, "keeper": "Kaique", "keeper_id": 1167067, "team": "Nacional", "matches": 28, "minutes": 2520.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 113, "xgot_faced": 34.867, "goals_conceded": 31, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1338, "goals_prevented_raw": 3.867, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1381, "goals_prevented": 0.511, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.831, "goals_prevented_hi": 4.179, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0183, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1011, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1492, "sar_per90": 0.1419, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0346, "sar_per90_hi": 0.3264, "skill_logit": 0.0349, "p_above_average": 0.592 }, { "rank": 8, "keeper": "Anatoliy Trubin", "keeper_id": 966616, "team": "Benfica", "matches": 32, "minutes": 2880.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 91, "xgot_faced": 24.715, "goals_conceded": 21, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1191, "goals_prevented_raw": 3.715, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1161, "goals_prevented": 0.512, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.151, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.313, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.016, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.0672, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1035, "sar_per90": 0.0982, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0209, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2284, "skill_logit": 0.0452, "p_above_average": 0.621 }, { "rank": 9, "keeper": "Andrew", "keeper_id": 947893, "team": "Gil Vicente", "matches": 17, "minutes": 1496.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 50, "xgot_faced": 11.894, "goals_conceded": 9, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1106, "goals_prevented_raw": 2.894, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1741, "goals_prevented": 0.25, "goals_prevented_lo": -1.13, "goals_prevented_hi": 1.872, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.015, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.068, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1126, "sar_per90": 0.0968, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0298, "sar_per90_hi": 0.228, "skill_logit": 0.0469, "p_above_average": 0.605 }, { "rank": 10, "keeper": "Diogo Costa", "keeper_id": 843115, "team": "Porto", "matches": 34, "minutes": 2997.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 75, "xgot_faced": 15.766, "goals_conceded": 12, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1091, "goals_prevented_raw": 3.766, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1131, "goals_prevented": 0.449, "goals_prevented_lo": -1.188, "goals_prevented_hi": 2.483, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0135, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.0357, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.0746, "sar_per90": 0.0657, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0121, "sar_per90_hi": 0.1502, "skill_logit": 0.0638, "p_above_average": 0.655 }, { "rank": 11, "keeper": "Patrick Sequeira", "keeper_id": 821628, "team": "Casa Pia", "matches": 29, "minutes": 2531.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 112, "xgot_faced": 37.872, "goals_conceded": 35, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1671, "goals_prevented_raw": 2.872, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1021, "goals_prevented": 0.302, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.909, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.676, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0107, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1035, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1307, "sar_per90": 0.1271, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0299, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2991, "skill_logit": 0.0221, "p_above_average": 0.562 }, { "rank": 12, "keeper": "Cezary Miszta", "keeper_id": 938292, "team": "Rio Ave", "matches": 21, "minutes": 1890.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 110, "xgot_faced": 35.264, "goals_conceded": 33, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1437, "goals_prevented_raw": 2.264, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.1078, "goals_prevented": 0.179, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.807, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.237, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0085, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1336, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1541, "sar_per90": 0.1528, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0383, "sar_per90_hi": 0.3722, "skill_logit": 0.0151, "p_above_average": 0.545 }, { "rank": 13, "keeper": "Caio Secco", "keeper_id": 345843, "team": "Moreirense", "matches": 11, "minutes": 990.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 34, "xgot_faced": 8.199, "goals_conceded": 7, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1221, "goals_prevented_raw": 1.199, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.109, "goals_prevented": 0.051, "goals_prevented_lo": -0.824, "goals_prevented_hi": 1.001, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0046, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.0749, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.091, "sar_per90": 0.075, "sar_per90_lo": -0.027, "sar_per90_hi": 0.1899, "skill_logit": 0.0179, "p_above_average": 0.541 }, { "rank": 14, "keeper": "Ennio Van Der Gouw", "keeper_id": 1005270, "team": "Rio Ave", "matches": 11, "minutes": 990.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 43, "xgot_faced": 11.834, "goals_conceded": 11, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1465, "goals_prevented_raw": 0.834, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.0758, "goals_prevented": 0.031, "goals_prevented_lo": -1.002, "goals_prevented_hi": 1.174, "goals_prevented_per90": 0.0029, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.0911, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1067, "sar_per90": 0.0872, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0342, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2234, "skill_logit": 0.0104, "p_above_average": 0.534 }, { "rank": 15, "keeper": "Matheus Mendes", "keeper_id": 1018555, "team": "Alverca", "matches": 10, "minutes": 900.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 41, "xgot_faced": 11.043, "goals_conceded": 11, "mean_xg_faced": 0.106, "goals_prevented_raw": 0.043, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.0043, "goals_prevented": -0.076, "goals_prevented_lo": -1.427, "goals_prevented_hi": 1.265, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0076, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1427, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1265, "sar_per90": 0.1114, "sar_per90_lo": -0.053, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2947, "skill_logit": -0.0113, "p_above_average": 0.47 }, { "rank": 16, "keeper": "Renan Ribeiro", "keeper_id": 82598, "team": "Estrela Amadora", "matches": 33, "minutes": 2970.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 138, "xgot_faced": 45.438, "goals_conceded": 44, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1604, "goals_prevented_raw": 1.438, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.0436, "goals_prevented": -0.25, "goals_prevented_lo": -3.859, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.439, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0076, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1169, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1042, "sar_per90": 0.1136, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0437, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2864, "skill_logit": -0.0122, "p_above_average": 0.479 }, { "rank": 17, "keeper": "Bernardo Fontes", "keeper_id": 1394935, "team": "Tondela", "matches": 35, "minutes": 3150.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 154, "xgot_faced": 46.266, "goals_conceded": 45, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1372, "goals_prevented_raw": 1.266, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": 0.0362, "goals_prevented": -0.39, "goals_prevented_lo": -4.993, "goals_prevented_hi": 3.738, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0111, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1427, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.1068, "sar_per90": 0.1211, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0486, "sar_per90_hi": 0.301, "skill_logit": -0.0169, "p_above_average": 0.459 }, { "rank": 18, "keeper": "André Gomes", "keeper_id": 1139990, "team": "Alverca", "matches": 26, "minutes": 2340.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 108, "xgot_faced": 35.857, "goals_conceded": 36, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1494, "goals_prevented_raw": -0.143, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": -0.0055, "goals_prevented": -0.457, "goals_prevented_lo": -4.094, "goals_prevented_hi": 2.567, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0176, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1575, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.0987, "sar_per90": 0.1037, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0634, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2791, "skill_logit": -0.0299, "p_above_average": 0.424 }, { "rank": 19, "keeper": "Juan Castillo", "keeper_id": 1175004, "team": "Vitoria SC", "matches": 15, "minutes": 1350.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 60, "xgot_faced": 15.289, "goals_conceded": 16, "mean_xg_faced": 0.137, "goals_prevented_raw": -0.711, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": -0.0474, "goals_prevented": -0.277, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.229, "goals_prevented_hi": 1.281, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0184, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1486, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.0854, "sar_per90": 0.0894, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0528, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2547, "skill_logit": -0.0346, "p_above_average": 0.407 }, { "rank": 20, "keeper": "Gabriel Batista", "keeper_id": 822526, "team": "Santa Clara", "matches": 32, "minutes": 2880.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 105, "xgot_faced": 30.577, "goals_conceded": 32, "mean_xg_faced": 0.134, "goals_prevented_raw": -1.423, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": -0.0445, "goals_prevented": -0.63, "goals_prevented_lo": -3.459, "goals_prevented_hi": 2.186, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0197, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1081, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.0683, "sar_per90": 0.065, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0299, "sar_per90_hi": 0.1976, "skill_logit": -0.0489, "p_above_average": 0.362 }, { "rank": 21, "keeper": "Ignacio de Arruabarrena", "keeper_id": 789933, "team": "Arouca", "matches": 17, "minutes": 1530.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 61, "xgot_faced": 15.646, "goals_conceded": 19, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1493, "goals_prevented_raw": -3.354, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": -0.1973, "goals_prevented": -0.588, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.35, "goals_prevented_hi": 0.987, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0346, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.1382, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.058, "sar_per90": 0.046, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0557, "sar_per90_hi": 0.1778, "skill_logit": -0.09, "p_above_average": 0.301 }, { "rank": 22, "keeper": "Joel Robles", "keeper_id": 93796, "team": "Estoril", "matches": 32, "minutes": 2880.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 129, "xgot_faced": 44.571, "goals_conceded": 47, "mean_xg_faced": 0.2089, "goals_prevented_raw": -2.429, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": -0.0759, "goals_prevented": -1.227, "goals_prevented_lo": -5.089, "goals_prevented_hi": 2.552, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0383, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.159, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.0798, "sar_per90": 0.0765, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0623, "sar_per90_hi": 0.2477, "skill_logit": -0.071, "p_above_average": 0.309 }, { "rank": 23, "keeper": "Simão", "keeper_id": 981817, "team": "AVS", "matches": 12, "minutes": 1073.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 55, "xgot_faced": 19.6, "goals_conceded": 23, "mean_xg_faced": 0.1938, "goals_prevented_raw": -3.4, "goals_prevented_raw_per90": -0.2852, "goals_prevented": -0.67, "goals_prevented_lo": -2.498, "goals_prevented_hi": 0.99, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.0562, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.2095, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.083, "sar_per90": 0.0725, "sar_per90_lo": -0.0837, "sar_per90_hi": 0.274, "skill_logit": -0.0926, "p_above_average": 0.291 } ], "replacement": { "label": "REPLACEMENT", "n_keepers_pooled": 25, "matches": 81, "minutes": 6859.0, "shots_on_target_faced": 331, "xgot_faced": 101.922, "goals_conceded": 118, "goals_prevented_raw": -16.078, "goals_prevented_per90": -0.1234, "goals_prevented_per90_lo": -0.2559, "goals_prevented_per90_hi": 0.0139, "p_above_average": 0.063 }, "model": { "divergences": 0, "max_r_hat": 1.0, "min_ess_bulk": 1360.0, "n_samples": 4000, "mu_mean": -0.1021974190578916, "mu_q05_q95": [ -0.21275921672016287, 0.009540166737775913 ], "sigma_theta_mean": 0.15069771630392007, "sigma_theta_q05_q95": [ 0.026947884528423414, 0.2856430584384755 ], "n_keepers_modelled": 23, "n_intervals_excluding_zero": 0, "corr_model_vs_raw": 0.9462839047096698, "corr_model_vs_raw_per90": 0.9658039179542615, "spearman_model_vs_raw": 0.9703557312252964, "xg_variant": { "beta_xg_mean": 0.09698203568714472, "beta_xg_q05_q95": [ 0.01537648699944349, 0.17919958137431563 ], "p_beta_positive": 0.976, "theta_corr_with_base": 0.9978899077814134, "divergences": 0 }, "min_minutes": 900, "keep_zero_xgot": false }, "sample": { "attribution": { "n_shots": 7615, "n_unattributed": 0, "n_payload_gk_not_on_defending_side": 0, "attribution_counts": { "shotmap": 5468, "sole_keeper": 2120, "sub_minute": 27 } }, "exclusions": { "start": 7615, "dropped_off_target": 4999, "dropped_penalties": 129, "dropped_own_goals": 29, "dropped_null_xgot": 0, "dropped_zero_xgot": 55, "dropped_unattributed": 0, "kept": 2403, "goals": 704, "sum_xgot": 728.6466602788565 }, "n_events": 314, "events_by_season": { "2025-26": 306, "2026-27": 8 }, "core_attribution_counts": { "shotmap": 1726, "sole_keeper": 668, "sub_minute": 9 }, "n_keepers_with_minutes": 48, "n_pooled_keepers": 25, "min_minutes": 900 }, "validation": { "split_half": { "split_at_matchday": 17, "min_shots_each_half": 25, "n_keepers": 13, "pearson": -0.09983401161682832, "spearman": 0.14285714285714285, "metric": "goals prevented per shot faced, raw" }, "walk_forward": [ { "cutoff_md": 12, "n_train": 836, "n_test": 1567, "n_test_seen_keeper": 1176, "n_keepers_estimated": 22, "logloss_xgot": 0.3935789200996079, "logloss_xgot_mu": 0.39320319186008296, "logloss_xgot_mu_theta": 0.3934885655172038, "delta_logloss_lo90": -0.0011157859906204327, "delta_logloss_hi90": 0.000535653469644878, "brier_xgot": 0.12449274931121178, "brier_xgot_mu": 0.12427417079793879, "brier_xgot_mu_theta": 0.12443844445143978, "divergences": 0, "max_r_hat": 1.0, "sigma_theta": 0.17641486221869862 }, { "cutoff_md": 18, "n_train": 1253, "n_test": 1150, "n_test_seen_keeper": 731, "n_keepers_estimated": 22, "logloss_xgot": 0.39510257561919604, "logloss_xgot_mu": 0.3947125183201459, "logloss_xgot_mu_theta": 0.39544536106339306, "delta_logloss_lo90": -0.001416169313441118, "delta_logloss_hi90": -4.33386916843698e-05, "brier_xgot": 0.12475305811756468, "brier_xgot_mu": 0.12450599649703394, "brier_xgot_mu_theta": 0.12481883330737925, "divergences": 0, "max_r_hat": 1.01, "sigma_theta": 0.15411884676201162 }, { "cutoff_md": 24, "n_train": 1676, "n_test": 727, "n_test_seen_keeper": 491, "n_keepers_estimated": 21, "logloss_xgot": 0.3990407370062377, "logloss_xgot_mu": 0.39872962786617266, "logloss_xgot_mu_theta": 0.39887830637240573, "delta_logloss_lo90": -0.0020429645171797543, "delta_logloss_hi90": 0.0017593448000010497, "brier_xgot": 0.1270571923108383, "brier_xgot_mu": 0.12688322871196892, "brier_xgot_mu_theta": 0.12712372236408287, "divergences": 0, "max_r_hat": 1.01, "sigma_theta": 0.15681368036864576 } ], "mean_delta_logloss_from_keeper_effects": -0.0003889649688670153, "reading": "delta > 0 means keeper identity improved out-of-sample prediction of whether an on-target shot went in; a delta whose bootstrap interval straddles zero means it did not." }, "caveats": [ "Single season plus a handful of 2026-27 matches: shotmaps are cached for 2025-26 complete and 2026-27 to date, with no backfill before that. Intervals are wide and should be read as such.", "Penalties are excluded — saving penalties is a different skill and the sample is tiny.", "Own goals are excluded: they are not a shot the keeper faced.", "Only shots on target (SofaScore shotType 'save' or 'goal') count. Blocked, off-target and woodwork shots carry xgot = 0 in the feed and never tested the keeper, so including them would reward keepers whose opponents miss.", "A small number of saves carry xgot exactly 0 in the feed and are dropped: a save on a shot with zero post-shot scoring probability carries no information about the keeper.", "This measures shot-stopping only. Claiming, sweeping, distribution and command of the area are not in the metric.", "Goals prevented per 90 scales with how many shots a keeper faces, which is mostly a property of the defence in front of him.", "Keepers below the minutes threshold are pooled into a single REPLACEMENT pseudo-keeper rather than ranked individually.", "One skill value per keeper across both covered seasons: 8 matches of 2026-27 cannot support a season effect.", "The replacement pool is the one group that clearly separates, and part of that is selection rather than ability: keepers get dropped after conceding badly, so short spells are enriched for bad runs.", "No keeper's 90% interval excludes zero and the walk-forward check finds no out-of-sample gain from knowing who the keeper is. Read the ranking as a description of what happened, not as a forecast of who will save more next season. See \"validation\"." ] }