{
  "season": "2025-26",
  "matchday": 31,
  "model": "joint_sot",
  "n_sims": 50000,
  "timestamp": "2026-04-30T22:56:18.984603+00:00",
  "table": [
    {
      "team": "Porto",
      "mean_pts": 89.8,
      "std_pts": 1.5,
      "mean_gd": 54.3,
      "p_champion": 0.9978,
      "p_top3": 1.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.994,
      "p_champion_hi": 1.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Sporting CP",
      "mean_pts": 82.6,
      "std_pts": 1.7,
      "mean_gd": 64.9,
      "p_champion": 0.0019,
      "p_top3": 1.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.006,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Benfica",
      "mean_pts": 81.1,
      "std_pts": 2.1,
      "mean_gd": 50.0,
      "p_champion": 0.0002,
      "p_top3": 1.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.002,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "SC Braga",
      "mean_pts": 60.8,
      "std_pts": 2.2,
      "mean_gd": 30.8,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Famalicao",
      "mean_pts": 55.6,
      "std_pts": 2.1,
      "mean_gd": 12.8,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Gil Vicente",
      "mean_pts": 52.8,
      "std_pts": 2.0,
      "mean_gd": 13.1,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Vitoria SC",
      "mean_pts": 45.2,
      "std_pts": 1.9,
      "mean_gd": -7.2,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Moreirense",
      "mean_pts": 44.1,
      "std_pts": 2.2,
      "mean_gd": -9.6,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Alverca",
      "mean_pts": 40.5,
      "std_pts": 1.9,
      "mean_gd": -18.0,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Estoril",
      "mean_pts": 39.3,
      "std_pts": 1.9,
      "mean_gd": -4.1,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Arouca",
      "mean_pts": 39.0,
      "std_pts": 2.2,
      "mean_gd": -21.2,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Rio Ave",
      "mean_pts": 36.9,
      "std_pts": 2.0,
      "mean_gd": -21.4,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Nacional",
      "mean_pts": 35.8,
      "std_pts": 2.2,
      "mean_gd": -5.9,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Santa Clara",
      "mean_pts": 35.3,
      "std_pts": 2.0,
      "mean_gd": -11.4,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Casa Pia",
      "mean_pts": 30.6,
      "std_pts": 2.4,
      "mean_gd": -26.4,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0573,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.04,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.0761
    },
    {
      "team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "mean_pts": 30.4,
      "std_pts": 1.9,
      "mean_gd": -19.9,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.0077,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.002,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.016
    },
    {
      "team": "Tondela",
      "mean_pts": 24.6,
      "std_pts": 2.2,
      "mean_gd": -33.0,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 0.935,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 0.912,
      "p_relegation_hi": 0.954
    },
    {
      "team": "AVS",
      "mean_pts": 15.6,
      "std_pts": 1.7,
      "mean_gd": -47.6,
      "p_champion": 0.0,
      "p_top3": 0.0,
      "p_relegation": 1.0,
      "p_champion_lo": 0.0,
      "p_champion_hi": 0.0,
      "p_relegation_lo": 1.0,
      "p_relegation_hi": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "actual_standings": [
    {
      "team": "Porto",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 82,
      "gd": 48,
      "gf": 63,
      "ga": 15
    },
    {
      "team": "Benfica",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 75,
      "gd": 47,
      "gf": 67,
      "ga": 20
    },
    {
      "team": "Sporting CP",
      "played": 30,
      "points": 72,
      "gd": 55,
      "gf": 75,
      "ga": 20
    },
    {
      "team": "SC Braga",
      "played": 30,
      "points": 53,
      "gd": 27,
      "gf": 58,
      "ga": 31
    },
    {
      "team": "Famalicao",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 51,
      "gd": 12,
      "gf": 39,
      "ga": 27
    },
    {
      "team": "Gil Vicente",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 49,
      "gd": 14,
      "gf": 46,
      "ga": 32
    },
    {
      "team": "Vitoria SC",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 42,
      "gd": -5,
      "gf": 38,
      "ga": 43
    },
    {
      "team": "Moreirense",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 39,
      "gd": -11,
      "gf": 34,
      "ga": 45
    },
    {
      "team": "Alverca",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 38,
      "gd": -15,
      "gf": 34,
      "ga": 49
    },
    {
      "team": "Estoril",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 37,
      "gd": -1,
      "gf": 51,
      "ga": 52
    },
    {
      "team": "Arouca",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 35,
      "gd": -21,
      "gf": 39,
      "ga": 60
    },
    {
      "team": "Rio Ave",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 34,
      "gd": -19,
      "gf": 33,
      "ga": 52
    },
    {
      "team": "Santa Clara",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 32,
      "gd": -10,
      "gf": 28,
      "ga": 38
    },
    {
      "team": "Nacional",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 31,
      "gd": -7,
      "gf": 34,
      "ga": 41
    },
    {
      "team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 28,
      "gd": -17,
      "gf": 34,
      "ga": 51
    },
    {
      "team": "Casa Pia",
      "played": 30,
      "points": 26,
      "gd": -25,
      "gf": 29,
      "ga": 54
    },
    {
      "team": "Tondela",
      "played": 30,
      "points": 21,
      "gd": -29,
      "gf": 21,
      "ga": 50
    },
    {
      "team": "AVS",
      "played": 31,
      "points": 14,
      "gd": -43,
      "gf": 22,
      "ga": 65
    }
  ],
  "team_strengths": {
    "AVS": {
      "attack": -0.279,
      "defense": 0.378
    },
    "Alverca": {
      "attack": 0.002,
      "defense": 0.045
    },
    "Arouca": {
      "attack": -0.027,
      "defense": 0.111
    },
    "Benfica": {
      "attack": 0.58,
      "defense": -0.847
    },
    "Casa Pia": {
      "attack": -0.15,
      "defense": 0.125
    },
    "Estoril": {
      "attack": 0.177,
      "defense": 0.075
    },
    "Estrela Amadora": {
      "attack": -0.108,
      "defense": 0.136
    },
    "Famalicao": {
      "attack": 0.177,
      "defense": -0.297
    },
    "Gil Vicente": {
      "attack": 0.142,
      "defense": -0.154
    },
    "Moreirense": {
      "attack": -0.097,
      "defense": 0.034
    },
    "Nacional": {
      "attack": -0.003,
      "defense": 0.028
    },
    "Porto": {
      "attack": 0.53,
      "defense": -1.038
    },
    "Rio Ave": {
      "attack": 0.022,
      "defense": 0.124
    },
    "SC Braga": {
      "attack": 0.403,
      "defense": -0.535
    },
    "Santa Clara": {
      "attack": -0.119,
      "defense": -0.159
    },
    "Sporting CP": {
      "attack": 0.755,
      "defense": -0.877
    },
    "Tondela": {
      "attack": -0.185,
      "defense": 0.147
    },
    "Vitoria SC": {
      "attack": 0.025,
      "defense": 0.021
    }
  },
  "xpts_table": [
    {
      "team": "Porto",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 65.0,
      "xgf": 57.5,
      "xga": 20.3
    },
    {
      "team": "Sporting CP",
      "played": 30,
      "xpts": 63.3,
      "xgf": 62.8,
      "xga": 22.9
    },
    {
      "team": "Benfica",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 63.3,
      "xgf": 60.7,
      "xga": 24.5
    },
    {
      "team": "SC Braga",
      "played": 30,
      "xpts": 53.7,
      "xgf": 54.0,
      "xga": 32.4
    },
    {
      "team": "Gil Vicente",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 49.8,
      "xgf": 43.6,
      "xga": 31.8
    },
    {
      "team": "Famalicao",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 49.0,
      "xgf": 41.6,
      "xga": 32.5
    },
    {
      "team": "Alverca",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 41.7,
      "xgf": 38.2,
      "xga": 41.1
    },
    {
      "team": "Santa Clara",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 41.2,
      "xgf": 33.1,
      "xga": 33.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Vitoria SC",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 41.1,
      "xgf": 37.6,
      "xga": 41.1
    },
    {
      "team": "Nacional",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 37.0,
      "xgf": 36.6,
      "xga": 48.3
    },
    {
      "team": "Estoril",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 36.1,
      "xgf": 39.4,
      "xga": 49.8
    },
    {
      "team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 35.8,
      "xgf": 37.1,
      "xga": 47.3
    },
    {
      "team": "Tondela",
      "played": 30,
      "xpts": 35.4,
      "xgf": 35.5,
      "xga": 45.8
    },
    {
      "team": "Arouca",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 34.5,
      "xgf": 30.9,
      "xga": 49.1
    },
    {
      "team": "Rio Ave",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 33.6,
      "xgf": 32.9,
      "xga": 49.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Moreirense",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 33.1,
      "xgf": 28.9,
      "xga": 46.0
    },
    {
      "team": "Casa Pia",
      "played": 30,
      "xpts": 26.5,
      "xgf": 27.1,
      "xga": 52.4
    },
    {
      "team": "AVS",
      "played": 31,
      "xpts": 25.0,
      "xgf": 27.9,
      "xga": 58.1
    }
  ],
  "position_probs": {
    "AVS": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0005,
      0.9995
    ],
    "Alverca": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0121,
      0.0796,
      0.4055,
      0.2296,
      0.1799,
      0.0792,
      0.014,
      0.0001,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Arouca": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0037,
      0.0268,
      0.1373,
      0.2771,
      0.2093,
      0.169,
      0.122,
      0.0519,
      0.0027,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Benfica": [
      0.0002,
      0.1828,
      0.8169,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Casa Pia": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0003,
      0.0021,
      0.0083,
      0.0259,
      0.0594,
      0.3834,
      0.4633,
      0.0573,
      0.0
    ],
    "Estoril": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0142,
      0.0662,
      0.2508,
      0.2435,
      0.2499,
      0.1391,
      0.0338,
      0.0025,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Estrela Amadora": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0001,
      0.0023,
      0.0095,
      0.0464,
      0.4633,
      0.4706,
      0.0077,
      0.0
    ],
    "Famalicao": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0345,
      0.7497,
      0.2158,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Gil Vicente": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0023,
      0.2149,
      0.7816,
      0.0012,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Moreirense": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.3179,
      0.5164,
      0.1223,
      0.0345,
      0.0081,
      0.0007,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Nacional": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0009,
      0.0142,
      0.0702,
      0.1234,
      0.2126,
      0.2515,
      0.2784,
      0.0443,
      0.0046,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Porto": [
      0.9978,
      0.0018,
      0.0004,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Rio Ave": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0001,
      0.0028,
      0.0245,
      0.0858,
      0.1325,
      0.2469,
      0.2982,
      0.174,
      0.0331,
      0.0022,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "SC Braga": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.9632,
      0.0354,
      0.0014,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Santa Clara": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0008,
      0.0061,
      0.0565,
      0.0947,
      0.142,
      0.2452,
      0.3873,
      0.063,
      0.0044,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Sporting CP": [
      0.0019,
      0.8154,
      0.1827,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ],
    "Tondela": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0102,
      0.0548,
      0.9345,
      0.0005
    ],
    "Vitoria SC": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0012,
      0.6507,
      0.3065,
      0.0393,
      0.0023,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0
    ]
  },
  "matchday_results": [
    {
      "home": "Vitoria SC",
      "away": "Rio Ave",
      "home_goals": 2,
      "away_goals": 0
    },
    {
      "home": "Tondela",
      "away": "Nacional",
      "home_goals": 0,
      "away_goals": 2
    },
    {
      "home": "Santa Clara",
      "away": "SC Braga",
      "home_goals": 2,
      "away_goals": 1
    },
    {
      "home": "AVS",
      "away": "Sporting CP",
      "home_goals": 1,
      "away_goals": 1
    },
    {
      "home": "Estoril",
      "away": "Famalicao",
      "home_goals": 0,
      "away_goals": 1
    },
    {
      "home": "Estrela Amadora",
      "away": "Porto",
      "home_goals": 1,
      "away_goals": 2
    },
    {
      "home": "Gil Vicente",
      "away": "Casa Pia",
      "home_goals": 2,
      "away_goals": 1
    }
  ],
  "matches_remaining": [],
  "next_matchday": {
    "matchday": 32,
    "matches": [
      {
        "home": "SC Braga",
        "away": "Estoril",
        "p_home": 0.7131,
        "p_draw": 0.1731,
        "p_away": 0.1138
      },
      {
        "home": "Casa Pia",
        "away": "Tondela",
        "p_home": 0.4535,
        "p_draw": 0.2644,
        "p_away": 0.2821
      },
      {
        "home": "Sporting CP",
        "away": "Vitoria SC",
        "p_home": 0.8758,
        "p_draw": 0.089,
        "p_away": 0.0352
      },
      {
        "home": "Famalicao",
        "away": "Benfica",
        "p_home": 0.1779,
        "p_draw": 0.276,
        "p_away": 0.5461
      },
      {
        "home": "Arouca",
        "away": "Santa Clara",
        "p_home": 0.3756,
        "p_draw": 0.2865,
        "p_away": 0.3379
      },
      {
        "home": "Porto",
        "away": "Alverca",
        "p_home": 0.8357,
        "p_draw": 0.1182,
        "p_away": 0.046
      },
      {
        "home": "Moreirense",
        "away": "Estrela Amadora",
        "p_home": 0.4786,
        "p_draw": 0.2556,
        "p_away": 0.2657
      },
      {
        "home": "Nacional",
        "away": "AVS",
        "p_home": 0.6416,
        "p_draw": 0.1985,
        "p_away": 0.1599
      },
      {
        "home": "Rio Ave",
        "away": "Gil Vicente",
        "p_home": 0.3234,
        "p_draw": 0.2519,
        "p_away": 0.4248
      }
    ]
  }
}